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Can oil bottom as low as $15 per barrel?

7.3K views 97 replies 32 participants last post by  69nova  
#1 ·
Oil prices have already taken a dramatic fall that's saved consumers big time at the pump. Last week, crude tumbled below $42 a barrel, down from $100 last year. One big-name investor is predicting an even sharper drop. "There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest we have bottomed. You could have $15 or $20 oil -- easily", influential money manager David Kotok told CNNMoney. http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/18/investing/oil-prices-15-kotok/
 
#2 ·
Price of oil rises we get an immediate hike at the pump. Price of oil drops and the drop never seems to correspond quite as quickly.

I still can't believe tax payers give oil companies billions on subsidies. What a scam.

Gas should be under 2 dollars a gallon now...



Stop the billion dollar subsidy and nationalize all our countries oil reserves.

Worried about monopolies? Oil companies are ripping off Americans big time.

Jmo
 
#70 ·
And this is NOT supported by facts. Oil companies do not get all the huge special subsidies, they get the same tax breaks on capital investments that all industry gets. Oil exploration is a huge market that is very capital intense so the numbers seems large but they are really inline with any other industry.
 
#4 ·
I always buy railroad stocks when gas is cheap and sell when gas is expensive. That's done well for me in the past, but with coming electrification and with the younger generations not so enthralled with driving, will gas get expensive again?
 
#10 ·
Gasoline prices in my area certainly aren't cheap when compared with the price of oil. About a year ago I was paying around $1.15 per litre. This spring when oil prices were in rapid decline the gasoline price did plummet to around $0.80 per litre but the price has since recovered back up to $1.20 or more right now.
 
#13 ·
Paying 2.11 a gallon in NJ and it's getting cheaper by the day.

I don't think we will see $15 a barrel, I think oil will bottom out around $30 and then stabilize around $50 to $60 a barrel by next year.
 
#20 ·
The oil companies are ripping off Americans. When the price of crude rises the pump price automatically and immediately goes up.

There is no reason why when the price of crude drops gasoline prices don't drop accordingly. All the rest is bullsh t!
 
#23 ·
Tough call - do we want a strong domestic oil industry but with a higher gas price or a lower gas price but our domestic oil industry gone bust/USA a lot less energy independent and higher unemployment/weaker economy?
The oil companies are ripping off Americans...
...All the rest is bullsh t!
wondering what I'd like better
- instituting leveling-taxes so gas would never sell for less than $2 - plus increase the artificial level SLOWLY - with Yes, lowering the tax to moderate gouging...
...actually ANTI- the industry's price-fixing
or
- a fatal disease that only affects oil-execs world-wide

of course
that doesn't HAVE to be either-or
 
#28 · (Edited)
Well, besides all the this and that .... that really does matter...... you also have the fundamental fact that petroleum oil pricing has always required some sort of Supply throttling procedure .... because reality is ..... there always has been, is now, and will be until the Second Coming ....... 'too much' supply.

This often or better said for a real long stretch involved ( further back ) - involved mildly screwing over the mid level members on a part time basis but also critically, throwing the two traditional swing producers during this period referenced - who have almost always been forced to live off the scraps @ the table ...... into the ditch - yet again ie Libya ..... and Iraq.


( And yes, in third position would be Iran...... )

When the necessary arrangements and 'schedules' etc within are 'disrupted' or 'abruptly' changed...... for whatever reason or reasons ( it rarely is just about one thing ) ..... more of the natural pricing mechanism in a net sense comes forward.
 
#35 · (Edited)

You lost? is it 2, 7, 10 or now 5?

True cost is The problem is, the true breakeven cost -- the price of a barrel of oil needed to bring it to market and balance country budgets -- is becoming extremely high for these nations.
Country Budget Breakeven Price for Oil (USD)
Saudi Arabia $87.63

In the end that's the only thing that matters.

As to the post where you say they are making money even at $40 you might now understand they are NOT.
 
#34 ·
Cant help the autocorrect, but you show how ignorant you really are. I was NOT talking about budget deficits. You link me to some garbage links that have one guy say its $2 then another article that says its somewhere around $7 and you decide to go with $10. Now you say you "doubt" it has increased over 10$. I linked you to a RBC markets pic that shows exactly what the breakeven points are.

Not worth reading what you have to post goes both ways.
 
#36 ·
Says the guy who doesn't even read what he pulls his charts from.

http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-breakeven-oil-2014-12

That is exactly what the chart is. Financial break-evens to cover the budget deficit.

That "One Guy" was the Saudi Oil Minister. The other number was $1-2 stripping out Capital expenditure, the $4-6 is with capital expenditure. As noted directly in my quote. I countered your disagreement with a general doubt that the cost has increased to more than $10 off hand, then with a quick google search reinforced my original links.

You are chasing your tail in a losing argument.
 
#49 ·
It seems the oil sands is some dirty thick oil that needs a thinner liquid to help it through the pipe. Through the refining process, that dirty oil leaves more petroleum coke (petcoke) to get rid of too. Some power plants burn the stuff but it is even dirtier than coal to burn. It is no wonder a few people are fighting clean energy because they are making money with this petcoke disposal.
 
#54 ·
Let's keep it simple....when a barrel of oil pricing goes up one day...gas prices at the pump go up the next day if not the same day.

A barrel of oil goes down and we wait for prices to drop.

There is a lot of discussion why it's ok that the consumers have to wait for prices at the pump to go down...but hot dam if the rare occasion exists that the cost of a barrel of oil drops as dramatically as it has....we have to wait for pump prices to drop accordingly.


We as consumers have been getting raped for years.

As icing on the cake....

Billion dollar subsidies to oil companies is a complete joke but it's chump change compared to what's been going on for years.

Also who gives a rats @ss if Saudi Arabia runs a deficit?

We've have an 18 trillion dollar deficit and part of that involves over a decade of wars protecting Saudi Arabia....

The only reason oil is cheap is to punish Putin .

Jmo
 
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#62 ·
I don't know who to believe. One analyst will give all the rational explanation about how prices will stabilize in the near future and start rising again.
Another will give his own rational explanation of how the prices will crash. Until somebody can research and spell out what the manipulators are upto it is hard to know which way the prices will go.
Just last week for no apparent reason prices in MI went up by 60 cents overnight. Rational explanation was there was a refinery problem. My question is how did the price increase help overcome the supply problem, if at all it existed. Did people buy less gas in the last week just because the price went up. Most likely not - 1 week is too short a time for any meaningful change in consumption. So people did consume the same amount as they did in the preceding week. Gas stations did not run out of gas, so where is the supply problem that caused the price spike.
All it did was allow the speculators to profit. They probably hoard the gas waiting for an event like this to give them a rational justification for a price spike.
Ever since the Wall street thugs have been allowed to speculate on gasoline we have been seeing these spikes on and off for the past 8 years. Before that when the wall street money was directed towards speculating in housing and before that the dot com bubble these spikes did not exist.