[gkr778]

I'd have to say you've not given me anything but worst possible case scenarios and assumptions.

It seems to me that unkillsam is describing what his business must contend with right now, not necessarily worst-case scenarios.

My employer's fleet manager is dealing with similar considerations for the trucks and vans we use to transport components used in elevator repair - both operation of the current fleet and planning the acquisition of new vehicles in the future.

 

[BlackGTP]

It seems to me that unkillsam is describing what his business must contend with right now, not necessarily worst-case scenarios.

My employer's fleet manager is dealing with similar considerations for the trucks and vans we use to transport components used in elevator repair - both operation of the current fleet and planning the acquisition of new vehicles in the future.

I've zero doubt there are considerations to be made, but taking everything at beyond the worst-case scenario sounds like it might lead one to the wrong decision. To me unkillsam has already decided all this before we've seen the specs and cost.

And I'm 100% in agreement that gen 1 Ultium cargo vans will not be suited for all needs. But Gen 2 sounds promising, like it'll work for all but the most extreme needs.

 

[nota2]

I've zero doubt there are considerations to be made, but taking everything at beyond the worst-case scenario sounds like it might lead one to the wrong decision. To me unkillsam has already decided all this before we've seen the specs and cost.

Until recently we were using the (by far) most popular choice here of van and minibus; Toyota HiAce. Even at 250 km per day, for us to comply with warranty requirements means those things require servicing every 8 weeks!

Think about it: This means two staff members taken off regular duties for dealer drop-off, and again for pickup. Plus another two staff to pickup the rental replacement, and again for the bloody rental return. Plus using your yard vehicle. Plus the initial cost of the rental.

As you can imagine, this impost is more than an inconvenience. It means additional cost. It means you either have to short staff, or you need to employ more staff. Financially it really mounts up. And should especially not be underestimated if you operate multiple units. Plus the way much higher service costs & frequently for ICE vs BEV.

For set runs within a workable mileage, I reckon ICE is for mugs.

 

[unkillsam]

Why are you assuming a new BEV cargo van will cost so much more? Are you replacing your vans with a Hummer? See this thread: (1) GM: EV Program Will Show Profit By 2025; Bolt CY22 Sales Will Show Loss | GM Inside News Forum

Electric rates certainly have gone up, but I bet the cost of filling up your BEV will still be less than gas. Should we talk about diesel and how much that costs?

Why are you assuming any BEV you buy will need a battery replacement? We've seen the splashy "my battery failed at 50k miles" articles, but those seem to be the outlier and there are plenty of stories of battery packs still going strong that are over 200k miles. Plus, those are generally stories from people with older vehicles and therefore older battery tech.

I'd have to say you've not given me anything but worst possible case scenarios and assumptions.

I think I would be the best one to judge how to make a profit at the business that I run.

You have no idea what the costs are and you can't just assume things.

Let's say I'm running a donated kidney from Philadelphia to New York and oops I have to stop in Jersey City and recharge because I don't want my battery to die in the Lincoln tunnel.

Sorry hospital you're gonna have to wait an extra 90 minutes for your delivery because I'm in a battery powered Van

 

[unkillsam]

It seems to me that unkillsam is describing what his business must contend with right now, not necessarily worst-case scenarios.

My employer's fleet manager is dealing with similar considerations for the trucks and vans we use to transport components used in elevator repair - both operation of the current fleet and planning the acquisition of new vehicles in the future.

Exactly I don't run a set delivery route within a city where I'm only traveling less than 200 miles A-day I'm covering an entire Tri-state region and traveling at least 400 and up to 5 or 600 miles A-day.

As far as worrying about internal combustion engine maintenance requirements I change my own oil every 3 weeks it takes 30 minutes and the vehicle is only down 4 days out of the year 2 days for transmission services and 2 days to Repair any suspension components. The express is so good on maintenance that I usually can go 2and a 1/2 years before I even have to replace the brakes

 

[09W]

See this thread: (1) GM: EV Program Will Show Profit By 2025; Bolt CY22 Sales Will Show Loss | GM Inside News Forum

You twice linked to an article that provides zero information on future BE van costs; only predicted corporate profitability.

As far as 'why do you think a BE van is going to cost significantly more?' - the BE pickups are significantly more - why would vans be radically different; because 'they said so'?

 

[unkillsam]

You twice linked to an article that provides zero information on future BE van costs; only predicted corporate profitability.

As far as 'why do you think a BE van is going to cost significantly more?' - the BE pickups are significantly more - why would vans be radically different; because 'they said so'?

Speaking of the Bev pickups they lose huge amounts of range when you load them down how am I supposed to know whether an electric Van is going to hold up to its advertised range once I completely load it down with deliveries

 

[BlackGTP]

You twice linked to an article that provides zero information on future BE van costs; only predicted corporate profitability.

As far as 'why do you think a BE van is going to cost significantly more?' - the BE pickups are significantly more - why would vans be radically different; because 'they said so'?

The article shows costs are going down, especially with Gen 2 Ultium, I think that is reasonable to extrapolate that BEV's will have that near parity price to ICE.

You are telling me that all future BEV's are going to cost $100k because GM's Ultium launch vehicles are pricy. I don't see how you can extrapolate that because the launch Silverado costs $100k that a cargo van is going to cost $100k.

 

[BlackGTP]

I think I would be the best one to judge how to make a profit at the business that I run.

You have no idea what the costs are and you can't just assume things.

Let's say I'm running a donated kidney from Philadelphia to New York and oops I have to stop in Jersey City and recharge because I don't want my battery to die in the Lincoln tunnel.

Sorry hospital you're gonna have to wait an extra 90 minutes for your delivery because I'm in a battery powered Van

Certainly is not my business, but your comments sound like you've already made up your mind before we have the pricing, range and you've determined they will cost a lot more. I don't get that. I asked you "how do you know" and you are telling me a cargo van will cost $30k more than the ICE equivalent because the top of the line BEV Silverado will top $100k - I don't understand the correlation, especially when we have a promised $30k Equinox coming. I gave you my rational as to why I think the cost of a BEV van will be reasonable, I gave my rational for what type of customer will be fine with BEV. You've not given me any hard facts. Tell me what will cost more. Tires? That I get with the added weight.

If you tell me the batteries will not have the needed range based on what we are seeing with the Ultium launch vehicles, then I get that. I've already said BEV may not be ready for all delivery types, I'm not specifically speaking of yours.

 

[09W]

Not the 'Launch Edition' vehicles, c'mon, man.

An extended-range Lightning is $20-22K more than a turbo-diesel at GM (keeping the trims & options similar) - I've detailed this before more than once. There is no price parity, and with lithium pricing currently exploding over the past year, it's disingenuous to claim 'prices are going to drop like crazy, and just wait until the next generation'. There's no factual support for that statement.

Dyson was never alive, Lordstown is dead, Aptera is dead, Bright is dead, Fisher is dead, ELMS just filed for bankruptcy, Canoo is terminally ill, Rivian is hemmoraging cash by the second despite jacking pricing by circa 12%, Tesla is packing the profit line with credit sales.... the cost pressure is ALL upward, and no quantity of rosy, gushing press releases can erase the current trajectory. You've GOT to be realistic RE the BE landscape.

 

[BlackGTP]

Not the 'Launch Edition' vehicles, c'mon, man.

An extended-range Lightning is $20-22K more than a turbo-diesel at GM (keeping the trims & options similar) - I've detailed this before more than once. There is no price parity, and with lithium pricing currently exploding over the past year, it's disingenuous to claim 'prices are going to drop like crazy, and just wait until the next generation'. There's no factual support for that statement.

Dyson was never alive, Lordstown is dead, Aptera is dead, Bright is dead, Fisher is dead, ELMS just filed for bankruptcy, Canoo is terminally ill, Rivian is hemmoraging cash by the second despite jacking pricing by circa 12%, Tesla is packing the profit line with credit sales.... the cost pressure is ALL upward, and no quantity of rosy, gushing press releases can erase the current trajectory. You've GOT to be realistic RE the BE landscape.

The Lightning is a different animal, built on a modified chassis using off the shelf batteries. It has none of the advanced wireless tech that brings down the cost of Ultium. Plus, we know Ford was late to the game with BEV, anyone want to make a bet that Ford's priority was being "first" at all costs and to steal GM's thunder? I'll put money on it that those decisions are showing up in their pricing with a greater impact than the actual increase in raw material pricing.

Startups not being profitable... That is not surprising, nor would I strongly correlate a startups performance to a mainstream manufacturer like GM.

Nor do I think these vans will be on gen 1 Ultium, I suspect they will be on gen 2.

GM bet the farm on BEV, I very much doubt they intend to have a future with all their vehicles costing $20k more than the ICE equivalent.

I am being realistic based on what I've read. I have an article from GM stating their costs will come way down with gen 2 Ultium, they are a publicly traded company and can't make press releases like that with made up data. I will rely on that to be more factual than extrapolations based on what is on the market today.

 

[09W]

...built on a modified chassis...

So; less expensive than a dedicated one having zero amortization.

Startups not being profitable... That is not surprising

Are they not profitable because they're start-ups..., or because they're electric vehicle start-ups?

I have an article from GM stating their costs will come way down with gen 2 Ultium, they are a publicly traded company and can't make press releases like that with made up data.

It's a forward projection; believe me there is legalese in there allowing said predictions; words like 'envision' and 'fully expect' that eliminate any potential liabilities there. It's the future-it's not reality.

 

[Greg Burr]

Speaking of the Bev pickups they lose huge amounts of range when you load them down how am I supposed to know whether an electric Van is going to hold up to its advertised range once I completely load it down with deliveries

We on the site admire the shiny objects, you have to make payroll. We look at manufacturer's specs, you look at real world results. Maybe the EV's as they are will work, maybe they won't. Maybe the ones coming out in 5 years will tip the balance, maybe we'll all be dead by then. I hear you.

 

[BlackGTP]

So; less expensive than a dedicated one having zero amortization.

Are they not profitable because they're start-ups..., or because they're electric vehicle start-ups?

It's a forward projection; believe me there is legalese in there allowing said predictions; words like 'envision' and 'fully expect' that eliminate any potential liabilities there. It's the future-it's not reality.

I very much doubt that modifying an ICE chassis is cost free.

A start-up is a start-up and most fail. The biggest distinction I see in this case is a lot of these start-ups are Silicon Valley based, like Tesla, and think they can come in and build a vehicle just like it is any other electronic device. I'd bet that Musk will say it hasn't turned out that easy.

I'm sure Elon Musk pointed to all his legalese each time the SEC knocked on his door and slapped him around.

 

[Greg Burr]

delete

 

[gkr778]

I am being realistic based on what I've read. I have an article from GM stating their costs will come way down with gen 2 Ultium, they are a publicly traded company and can't make press releases like that with made up data. I will rely on that to be more factual than extrapolations based on what is on the market today.

It's a forward projection; believe me there is legalese in there allowing said predictions; words like 'envision' and 'fully expect' that eliminate any potential liabilities there. It's the future-it's not reality.

Here is part of that legalese from the GM Investor Relations site:

This website may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations about possible future events and thus are inherently uncertain. Our actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors, including: (1) our ability to deliver new products, services and experiences that attract new, and are desired by existing, customers and to effectively compete in autonomous, ride-sharing and transportation as a service; (2) sales of crossovers, SUVs and full-size pick-up trucks; (3) our ability to reduce the costs associated with the manufacture and sale of electric vehicles; (4) the volatility of global sales and operations; (5) our significant business in China which subjects us to unique operational, competitive and regulatory risks; (6) our joint ventures, which we cannot operate solely for our benefit and over which we may have limited control; (7) changes in government leadership and laws (including tax laws), economic tensions between governments and changes in international trade policies, new barriers to entry and changes to or withdrawals from free trade agreements, changes in foreign exchange rates, economic downturns in foreign countries, differing local product preferences and product requirements, compliance with U.S. and foreign countries' export controls and economic sanctions, differing labor regulations and difficulties in obtaining financing in foreign countries; (8) our dependence on our manufacturing facilities; (9) the ability of suppliers to deliver parts, systems and components without disruption and on schedule; (10) prices of raw materials; (11) our highly competitive industry; (12) the possibility that competitors may independently develop products and services similar to ours despite our intellectual property rights; (13) security breaches and other disruptions to our vehicles, information technology networks and systems; (14) compliance with laws and regulations applicable to our industry, including those regarding fuel economy and emissions; (15) costs and risks associated with litigation and government investigations; (16) compliance with the terms of the Deferred Prosecution Agreement; (17) the cost and effect on our reputation of product safety recalls and alleged defects in products and services; (18) our ability to successfully and cost-efficiently restructure operations in various countries with minimal disruption; (19) our ability to realize production efficiencies and to achieve reductions in costs; (20) our ability to develop captive financing capability through GM Financial; and (21) significant increases in pension expense or projected pension contributions. A further list and description of these risks, uncertainties and other factors can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, and our subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. GM cautions readers not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. GM undertakes no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statements.

 

[09W]

^ There it is.

Cliff Notes : 'We have no Earthly idea, but wouldn't this be nice!'

- - - - -
Musk has had 'talks' with the SEC, not because the cybertrucklette didn't appear in 2019 like 'he said', but because he was using his platform to make statements that potentially influenced stock pricing.
Apples and tubas.

 

[unkillsam]

Certainly is not my business, but your comments sound like you've already made up your mind before we have the pricing, range and you've determined they will cost a lot more. I don't get that. I asked you "how do you know" and you are telling me a cargo van will cost $30k more than the ICE equivalent because the top of the line BEV Silverado will top $100k - I don't understand the correlation, especially when we have a promised $30k Equinox coming. I gave you my rational as to why I think the cost of a BEV van will be reasonable, I gave my rational for what type of customer will be fine with BEV. You've not given me any hard facts. Tell me what will cost more. Tires? That I get with the added weight.

If you tell me the batteries will not have the needed range based on what we are seeing with the Ultium launch vehicles, then I get that. I've already said BEV may not be ready for all delivery types, I'm not specifically speaking of yours.

I'm telling you that the batteries will not have the range to do on-demand just-in-time delivery services that myself and tens of thousands of other small Courier services provide, that run specialized pickup and delivery services via the passenger plane cargo network, outside of traditional UPS/Fed Ex.

The other 2 major problems is that as plumbers/contractors and localized small businesses switch to electric because they only need to drive short distances, the market will be flooded with older gas power vans which will be snapped up by couriers and I can't price myself out of the market by going electric.

Secondly as more and more vehicles go electric its going to create an electricity shortage further driving the price of electricity up. Americans are used to low electricity rates because of our incredible base load generating capacity. This is no longer the case. What I'm paying for electricity has jumped from .06 per kwh to .12 per kwh. That's a doubling. Gas is higher but not twice as high. You can't sit here and tell me what my electric cost is going to be for a vehicle but I can sit here and tell you for a fact I can run my business on $80 to $90 dollars of gas per day. How much is it going to cost me to fast charge possiblely 3 times a day on the road paying premium (not residential) electric prices.

Thirdly. You really thing their going to offer an electric cargo van for under $50k? They just raised the price of the 2023 Express by 5k just because they can, despite all the tooling being fully amortized. I don't see these vans going for any less then $60k Base.

 

[tripowergto Jan2003]

The room always goes quiet once you mention electricity rates have already doubled in one year and ever increasing. I'm now at just shy of .22 per kWh. At that price I'll just keep buying gas and ENJOY my V8's.

 

[09W]

I do not see contractors (I'm one) switching en-mass to EV vehicles.
Most are weighed down with hundreds or thousands of lbs of gear, 1. which has been demonstrated to greatly reduce range, and 2. Silverado EV payload is only 1200 lbs, which puts a major limit on doing commercial work. Then there's the pricing / insurance biting into the bottom line.