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Analyst Scenario: GM could take Chrysler, Nissan keeps Dodge Trucks

5.1K views 48 replies 28 participants last post by  Michael_S  
#1 ·
SOURCE: DetNews.com

A Ram in Nissan's future?
Some auto analysts say sale of Chrysler's Dodge truck business makes sense.

Alisa Priddle / The Detroit News
Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Nissan Motor Co. needs full-size trucks and Chrysler LLC could spin off a chunk of its Dodge truck business to fill that need, analysts say.

Despite high gasoline prices, there remains a market for large pickups and SUVs in North America. But Nissan does not want to invest heavily in developing its own new platforms to continue offering vehicles in these segments, given low volumes of the current Titan pickup and Nissan Armada and Infiniti QX56 SUVs.

Chrysler could "sell Dodge trucks to Nissan and just deal with cars," said Joseph Phillippi, principal at AutoTrends Consulting.

Manufacturing consultant Laurie Harbour-Felax, president of the Harbour-Felax Group, took the idea a step further. She envisions General Motors Corp. buying Chrysler from Cerberus Capital Management LP, keeping the Jeep brand and minivans, and packaging the Ram complete with its stamping, powertrain, transmission and assembly plants, for sale to a third party such as Nissan.

Chrysler has 13 facilities and about 16,000 employees who contribute to the assembly of the Dodge Ram pickup and Durango SUV -- all of whom would like to keep their jobs should a deal to sell Chrysler lead to an asset sale.

Chrysler workers are already poised to build Titans for Nissan in two years. And the product agreement, one of several between Chrysler and Nissan, could deepen into a more extensive relationship as the Renault-Nissan alliance has submitted a proposal to buy a stake of about 20 percent of the Auburn Hills automaker.

So far, Nissan has only cemented product agreements. The Japanese automaker introduced the Titan pickup in 2003, but it never reached its potential, selling less than 66,000 in 2007 with sales down another 42 percent through September. It was relegated to a niche vehicle that did not warrant investment in a new platform when the current truck ceases production in 2010. Instead, Nissan entered into an agreement under which Chrysler will use the architecture of the all-new 2009 Ram to build the next-generation Titan for sale in 2011.

Nissan is still designing the next Titan -- the name may change -- but its underpinnings will be all Ram for ease of assembly at Chrysler's Saltillo, Mexico, plant. Nissan is expected to take advantage of more engines, including a V-6, Hemi V-8 and Cummins diesels, as well as more cab configurations offered by the Ram platform. The partnership does not extend into heavy-duty pickups as Nissan is entering the light-commercial vehicle (LCV) market in North America in 2010 and a heavy-duty Titan would come from the LCV division.

As analysts dissect what may be salvageable among Chrysler's assets, they see full-size trucks, complete with their plants and workers, as a potential spin-off.

Included in the package would be the Dodge Durango SUV to replace the Armada. That would dovetail with Nissan product plans as the Japanese automaker plans to stop building the SUVs in Canton, Miss. Production of the QX56 will move to Japan where its replacement will come from a new luxury truck platform shared with the Nissan Patrol SUV, a well-revered off-roader that is popular in other parts of the world.

But the Armada isn't making the same move and its fate remains uncertain. Which raises the possibility of the Durango to the rescue.

It is in keeping with the view among Nissan officials in Japan who have said platform sharing is a good move for Nissan for low-volume vehicles where the amortization costs of a new platform can be largely borne by another automaker.

MORE HERE
 
#2 ·
This makes no sense. It would still involve closing Chrysler dealers, the costs of which will run into the billions.

Now, if Nissan bought the Ram tooling, engineering, and such, and then entered into an agreement to keep building the Ram for Dodge dealers, we might be on to something.
 
#6 ·
Yes if the wording is accurate then it seems that GM would be buying the Chrysler 'business' ( including presumably the Chrysler dealership agreements ) but then selling the truck-making assets to NR. It would be GM that's responsible and on the hook to do away with the Chrysler dealerships. It would be GM taking the heat. It would be GM - the killer. For this they would have to exact a pretty penny from Cerebus to keep 'the money changers' out of the spotlight.

It's Cerebus pulling the strings here methinks. GM is the puppet. But GM may come away with several $Billions after all is said and done - and one less competitor to share the govt bailout with not to mention one less competitor in the market.

The rest of the market says 'Thank you GM for doing the right thing'.
 
#14 ·
Dodge trucks were a pathetic entity (sales-wise) until they redesigned them to make them look tough. Chevy and Ford looked like toys beside them then. But the Hummer has that Arnold Schwarzenegger appeal. Sell Dodge trucks off, who cares? Once owned my Nissan, it's image will be tarnished. And if there was a tough as nail Hummer truck? Old Dodge truck fans would migrate. Just don't ask them to buy a Chev, even if it's the same thing. :)
 
#16 ·
This would be a loss for GM - Dodge's trucks are now nicer than anything GM sells and leaving GM with Chrysler's cars isn't a delightful proposition to say the least! Stripping Dodge trucks out leaves only Jeep as a brand of value - I guess if GM is so desperate for cash, it will do anything. I wonder how it is that GM will pull this off. Their management is the dumbest, least clever, laziest on the planet and I don't see adding more to their responsibilities as being less than shoveling more dirt on the corpse of GM.
 
#34 ·
this could make sense nissian gets the trucks, and then the chinese could buy the dealers for instant access to the NA market. Everyone wins, except the employees, and the American dream
Dreamscape.

This IS America and it always has been this way. We are a capitalistic society where the primary purpose in being in business it to reward the investor/owners for putting their money at risk. There is no other prime purpose. It's a dog-eat-dog economic model. It was far worse in the 19th and early 20th Century. However since WWII corporations have cloaked themselves in programs and efforts to show their 'corporate citizenship'. Nothing but PR!!

Yes there are secondary purposes in running a capitalistic business such as employment, local development, national wealth but underneath the gentlemnanly appearances it's a vicious game for killers. The only gauge of who wins comes at the end of the year when they add up the money, 'He who has the most money is the winner'. Everything else is PR - in order to make more money next year.

This type of corporate raiding and ravaging was much more prevalent in our earlier history. That was what made the real America; Edison killing all efforts of Tesla, Carnegie, Standard Oil, GM itself absorbing rivals. Today it's Microsoft killing every living thing in its way.
 
#18 ·
This would be interesting. I'd rather for GM to buy Chrysler first, then partner with Nissan to use the Ram platform for their next Titan and maybe a new Armada. It would be win-win unless Nissan plans to assemble the Ram-based vehicles in their own facilities. But I don't see why using "un-used" Dodge capacity wouldn't be an issue.
 
#23 ·
Hummer's for sale because GM lacked the right range of strategic vision for the brand and as a result didn't develop certain product types and most especially some higher fuel economy powertrain options centered around diesel but also including some alternative types of diesel hybrid technology.
Agreed. Also, I think if GM developed their 2-mode hybrid transmission to use diesel engines, they could've made diesel-electric hybrid Hummers & medium grade trucks that would still be selling well today. The fact that diesel prices are high would convince diesel buyers to just pony-up for the hybrid system to conserve fuel.
 
#39 ·
a diesel-electric engine would be great! But, do you have any idea how much that would probably cost as an added option?It would price the hummer way out of selling range. unless GM can find a way to manufacture and sell an engine like this cheap, i don't think its going to happen.
 
#24 · (Edited)
Yep.

Admittedly its just my gut, but of all the brands, GM probably could've come up with some very hi tech, expensive PT choices such as we are discussing here - including 'less battery' or capacitor/battery type electric hybrids or even something 'like' a fast acting non electric type and not only charged full cost but also have made at least a decent profit.

A maxed out hi tech diesel program including the at's of some sort would be the neccessary base.

And yes, absolutely, a Two Mode Hummer diesel program would be at the top of the list.

Heck, for that matter, why not the existing gasser Two Mode as well - yep, the serious off road aspect needs to be dealt with but one does wonder if that couldn't be handled one way or another -
 
#29 ·
wescoent,

1.) Chrysler US factories and dealers MUST stay open, and the brands cannot be shuttered.

1 cont.) For one, US government aid is completely based on converting US factories to build fuel efficient cars.

2. ) Secondly, shutting down the dealers/brands would result in apocalyptic lawsuits.

The first one allows a massive cash inflow, the second one prevents a massive cash outflow.
YEP - I think?

Did you mean it something like the above ?

If anyone is interested, it was GM who approached Cerberus about this. Cerberus was already well along the way in creating such an alliance with Renault-Nissan, and well, here we are.
Hmmmm..... I suppose that's possible but like a lot of whats out there it sounds more like what Cerebus and JP Morgan Chase want people to think ie spin or 'useful omission'.
 
#31 ·
wescoent,

YEP - I think?

Did you mean it something like the above ?

Hmmmm..... I suppose that's possible but like a lot of whats out there it sounds more like what Cerebus and JP Morgan Chase want people to think ie spin or 'useful omission'.
Yes? I thought it was pretty clear.

On the second point, if you recall, GM originally wanted to buy Chrysler from Daimler-Chrysler back when that all went down, but fell out of the running rather quickly. Obviously, I'm not privvy to the details of the current negotiations, but the ghist I am getting is that GM wanted to become a truly "too big to fail" automaker, and WHEN the failure happened, the government would be forced to prop them up. Becoming invested in such an "invincible" entity was appealing to Cerberus, who also saw the opportunity to get the whole of GMAC in the process.

Nissan-Renault is full of it if they're saying they haven't been talking to Cerberus... they've been negotiating operational alliances for the past 6 months, at least. GM's "too big to fail" strategy is distasteful to me, when I think an alliance with Renault-Nissan would be more productive and workable than one with GM.
 
#32 · (Edited)
You know, I wonder just exactly what intellectual property rights have flowed back and forth between GM and Chrysler.

Also........

I wonder......is this all possibly rooted in a two pronged, Bank/ WS led attempt to steal away from GM all their excellent tech concerning the future ie not just Two Mode, or the VOLT, BUT all the e - flex and fuel cell stuff as well ????

Take for instance, Toyota.

Yep, no mistake, I do mean Toyota.

Every single area of concern for their future success outside of currency changes would be addressed with access to GM's future tech.
 
#33 · (Edited)
I think that merging Hummer and Jeep might be a decent idea..

It gives Hummer lower end more car like models (Liberty and Grand Cherokee) so that they can continue to sell real off road trucks (Hummer) along side the Wrangler. I'm not talking about re-badging, I am talking about Jeep/Hummer franchises...2 or 3 products each sold alongside each other.


I also like the idea of Chrysler replacing or merging with Buick/Pontiac. Buick has nothing to offer that Chrysler or GMC doesn't offer.

Chrysler-GMC
Chevrolet
Saturn
Chrysler-Jeep-Hummer
Cadillac-Hummer

As long as the smaller brands, like Jeep, Hummer, and Chrysler are not stand alone....it could work.

stick Saab in there somewhere....or not, I don't know what Saab brings to the table anymore. Pontiac and Buick are not really needed anymore.


I'd say that GM could use the minivans, but in reality, I think that Lambda is a better chassis with a better powertrain.

GM definately needs to steal some of Chrysler's talented engineers.



My big question: Who's going to share the liability of shutting down these dealerships?
I'm sure that some, if given the option, will switch to Nissan-Dodge or Chrysler-GMC franchises, but others won't be able to.
 
#38 · (Edited)
This is the big question, shuttering the dinosaurs. Olds cost GM $1B to close. GM is struggling with the brands it has right now, and is spending $1B per month. Adding Chrysler adds 3 more brands to the mix. Getting Chrysler for the Mini Van and Jeep seems short sighted. Hummer could be Jeep, and don't worry, someone WILL buy Jeep. Chrysler MiniVans are currently #2 as vehicles, but I think still #1 in sales. Unless GM stops the cash bleed, and gets a cash injection FAST, to move products up -vs- putting them off, I'm afraid for the company, but is should look like this:

Chevrolet: competes with Toyota in every market with class leading products.

Saturn/Opel: New Saturns launched will be sold at Saturn/Opel Stores, and the old Saturn products go away. Opel is marketed as GM Europe, sold in America. No more lusting for European products, buy them at your Opel Store. Saturn is nichey, and appeals to only certain types of people, they can go buy a Saab, which should be sold to the Swedish Govt.

Saab: Sold to the Swedish Govt

Buick: Competes with Lexus/Infiniti. Build the Riviera to compete with Infiniti Coupes.

Pontiac: My first car was a 1970 LeMans Sport, and I love this brand, but am not sure where it can go? G3, G5 and Vibes are not the Poor man's BMW. Pontiac has one car the G8 and its not selling as well as hoped? I think the Proud Indian may go to the pyre?

Cadillac: Build the DTS/STS replacement that MUST compete head to head with 7 Series and S-Class Mercedes. Lambda replacement for Escalade, but keep the Escalade EXT for people that want the big boy. SRX replacement is launched soon. Sub CTS car that is the equal of any rival. XLR stays in the line up, but is restyled and gorgeous. It is not an SL Class car, but costs 2/3's of what an SL costs, and is much better looking with similar performance.

Hummer: All products are Hybrids, Wrangler type new offering. Tout mileage and Harmony with the Outdoors.

Seems they're doing alot in China, with the new Equinox Fuel Cell rollout, as well as other great products in Austrailia, Europe and Asia. The US is the missing link and where all the head aches are. Why isn't the US getting better product, faster? Why do we hear about a new product, but oh, its not coming here. Even the Cruze is going to Europe first.... could this be a strategy? Think about it?
 
#40 ·
this all clears up Friday with announcement. decisions made, deal done and it's not pretty.
 
#45 ·
I think these analysts are on to something,

I have a slightly different idea ...

Since GM may not have the financing to pull off a buyout for all of Chrysler and will have to either share parts with Nissan-Renault what if GM gets the Chrysler and Jeep brands with the Sebring Sedan, Sebring Convertible, 300C and Town & Country Minivan along with the entire Jeep line then "sell" or let Nissan-Renault buy the Dodge brand for the Dodge cars and Truck lines and split the dealers to minimize dealer count for both GM and Nissan.

GM can sell the Chrysler Town and Country Minivan in a "joint-venture" with Nissan's Dodge Grand Caravan at least until the next generation, and would do the same with the Sebring/Avenger and Charger/300C splitting the cost of these models for both GM and Nissan and allow time to consolidate later while saving the jobs of the line workers at the plants that make them. This may not save much upfront but would attract government loan money by temporarily saving jobs in a pre-election political environment. It is going to take many years to fully "work" all of the cost issues out anyway and with lower costs for both GM and Nissan they will have better margins on the Chrysler/Dodge cars and Minivans in the interim.

GM would get the coveted Jeep lineup and along with the Chrysler cars and Minivans have enough product for the Chrysler/Jeep dealers GM "aquire" but without Dodge eliminating nearly all redundant models while saving quite a bit of costs by adding fewer dealers and sharing costs of "joint venture" models. GM could save additional money by moving out of the Ren Center and into Auburn Hills that has more than enough room to consolidate the Chrysler and GM administrative/engineering staffs that remain with some others moving to Nissan with the car models and dealers.

There are many promising products being developed at Chrysler like the Dual Clutch transmissions and inovative production ideas like flexible lines at newer Chrysler plants, so Chrylser does offer much more than just Minivans and Jeeps.

Unfortunately there will still be jobs lost, plants closed and projects cancelled but much of that would have probably happened anyway; at least in this scenario some of it is put off unitl later and could be avoided if the market picks up and GM makes the most of what it gets and improves its offerings and builds market share.

Yes, in this scenario GM loses the Ram truck but given the costs involved with added Dodge dealers and the hard cold fact GM cannot afford all of Chrysler it may be a bitter pill but GM will still gain more than it loses, Nissan gets something worth doing a deal for and many existing Chrysler employees and dealers remain employed - not a perfect answer by a long shot but one I think worth looking at.
 
#46 · (Edited)
GM buys Chrysler whole for GMAC and 6-8 billion, GM sells JEEP/Hummer together to Tata for 7 Billion, Dodge to Nissan Renault for 7 Billion, GM pays off Chrysler Debt for X billion, pays out Chryslers dealers and plants for X billions and is left with 2-8 billion and 1 less competitor. But less their finance arm.

GM is the bad guy here, but with extra cash. Who wins the public veiw? #1 Ford, #2 the imports namely Nissan.

Cerberus has a bigger hold on what GM can and will do in the future.

Cerberus will come out the winner here, GM and Nissan, well maybe the same or better or with a little more hope, Chysler will be gone. Stripped of anything good.