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Your New Electric Car Will Cost Less To Produce Than Your Old Gas Guzzler Very Soon
May 11, 2021
José Rodríguez Jr

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One of the most important milestones in the shift to electrification is coming sooner than you think. Electric cars will cost less to make than internal combustion cars by the year 2027, according to a report from The Guardian.

And the lower cost of production will come even sooner than that in certain EV segments. For example, electric midsize sedans and SUVs will be cheaper to make than internal combustion midsize sedans and SUVs by 2026, per the report. Just one year after that, smaller cars will follow and it’s mostly thanks to cheaper batteries.

The research that The Guardian cites concludes that batteries will drive a big decrease in EV production costs in the near future. As EV batteries get cheaper, the production of electric cars gets cheaper, too, because batteries account for as much as a quarter of that overall cost.

The Guardian cites a new study, which suggests that the price of batteries will decrease by more than half of where it is now, in this decade:

The new study, commissioned by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based non-profit organisation that campaigns for cleaner transport in Europe, predicts new battery prices will fall by 58% between 2020 and 2030 to $58 per kilowatt hour.

This means that in as little as five years from today, electric cars will actually be the cheaper option for big auto and it’s very possible that, as The Guardian outlines, “tighter
emissions regulations could put [EVs] in pole position to dominate all new car sales by the middle of the next decade...”

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I'm not as nonsensically skeptical as certain cave dweller types, buuuuut I do have to point out:

The new study, commissioned by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based non-profit organisation that campaigns for cleaner transport in Europe
The commissioning group of the study probably isn't exactly apolitical when it comes to the topic.
 

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I'm not as nonsensically skeptical as certain cave dweller types, buuuuut I do have to point out:



The commissioning group of the study probably isn't exactly apolitical when it comes to the topic.
Those Central Planners are sneaky...but they got a little sloppy with this one.
 

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Believe it when I see it.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
I'm not as nonsensically skeptical as certain cave dweller types, buuuuut I do have to point out:



The commissioning group of the study probably isn't exactly apolitical when it comes to the topic.
Are you saying they might have lost a few IQ points from sucking on to many "clean" diesel emissions?
 

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At the battery cell level, $58 per kWh by 2030 seems a tad optimistic to me but certainly not outlandish (for comparison, it's probably about $100 per kWh today if the prices reported in the business press are to be believed). At the pack level, it will most likely be higher than $58/kWh in 2030 unless there are some breakthroughs.
 

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Believe it when I see it.
I've seen a lot of experts. Sometimes they actually know what they're talking about. Sometimes they don't.
I'm still waiting for the New Ice Age!!!
 

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Just to be clear, the article says "Less to Produce", not "Cheaper to Buy". Those are not the same thing.
 

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Just to be clear, the article says "Less to Produce", not "Cheaper to Buy". Those are not the same thing.
Businesses exist to make money, so they will be taking profits when there is a profit to be taken.
 

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It stands to reason that a vehicle requiring fewer parts would cost less to engineer and manufacture. Currently the cost of the raw materials is what makes EVs more expensive, and the fact that there is tremendous upfront R&D. Still, there are always new ways to add cost to a vehicle, such as developing Autonomous software. Ultimately the reductive engineering spearheaded by Tesla is where the cost savings can really come into play. But this likely means better corporate margins and lower warranty and recall costs, not necessarily cheaper cars.
 

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I'm not as nonsensically skeptical as certain cave dweller types, buuuuut I do have to point out:



The commissioning group of the study probably isn't exactly apolitical when it comes to the topic.
Agree that the source has a motive, but you gotta think this is one of the main factors that is ultimately driving the EV switchover, they (EVs) have the potential to be way cheaper to build, Some batteries, an induction motor, and viola...an Electric car. You don't have hundreds of rotating parts, camshafts, timing chains, fuel pumps, waterpumps, oil pumps, titanium valves, etc to deal with. Less parts to build, lower cost to build which lends to larger profit margins when sold at a higher cost due to their perceived technical superiority.
 

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My definition of "very soon" does not equate to 5 years from now.
 

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Agree that the source has a motive, but you gotta think this is one of the main factors that is ultimately driving the EV switchover, they (EVs) have the potential to be way cheaper to build, Some batteries, an induction motor, and viola...an Electric car. You don't have hundreds of rotating parts, camshafts, timing chains, fuel pumps, waterpumps, oil pumps, titanium valves, etc to deal with. Less parts to build, lower cost to build which lends to larger profit margins when sold at a higher cost due to their perceived technical superiority.
And,,,potentially less warranty repairs.
 
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The commissioning group of the study probably isn't exactly apolitical when it comes to the topic.
+1
In fact, T&E members represent some of Europe's most strident proponents of heavy handed government regulation to "mitigate" climate change aka globaloney warming and control citizens' lives:


 

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Agree that the source has a motive, but you gotta think this is one of the main factors that is ultimately driving the EV switchover, they (EVs) have the potential to be way cheaper to build, Some batteries, an induction motor, and viola...an Electric car. You don't have hundreds of rotating parts, camshafts, timing chains, fuel pumps, waterpumps, oil pumps, titanium valves, etc to deal with. Less parts to build, lower cost to build which lends to larger profit margins when sold at a higher cost due to their perceived technical superiority.
There may be fewer parts but they'll be frightfully expensive parts.
So don''t break it!!
 

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^^ So, gkr, I presume higher number means greater leaning toward socialism/communism/UN world government where everyone is happy. On soma.
 
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