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Well we have quite a few friends who have bought used German cars - mainly BMWs as they seem to be able to be repaired by a good home mechanic when they need it which in their case has been seldom. What is the depreciation on a Camry these days?
less than a German car I'd bet.
By that I mean, you start with less money so you lose less money.
 

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less than a German car I'd bet.
By that I mean, you start with less money so you lose less money.
When you pay 27K for an X5 I guess you are not too worried about it depreciating as I would not expect it to depreciate much for a couple of years and also comparable kilometrage vehicles are selling on the market for around 30-35K. Its a matter of buying right like with any purchase.
 

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less than a German car I'd bet.
By that I mean, you start with less money so you lose less money.
When you pay 27K for an X5 I guess you are not too worried about it depreciating as I would not expect it to depreciate much for a couple of years and also comparable kilometrage vehicles are selling on the market for around 30-35K. Its a matter of buying right like with any purchase.
but that’s the thing, you’re buying an already heavily depreciated used vehicle, someone else has already taken the hit for you, it’s the same with any used vehicle.

What I was talking about is that confounding Out of the blue fault that costs a lot of money, if you have German cars and haven’t had it happen yet, consider yourself very lucky.
 

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There are plenty of signs that a recession is coming or here in some countries. Bad policies can also make it worse. Trade wars do make it worse.
The only question is when it will be officially announced, my guess is right after the 2020 election
over 10 years of stagnant or forever lowering of interest rates cannot be good
 

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All of the recent slowing of the economy is due to unsettled relations
between the US and China, once that is resolved the Aussie economy
will lift. There's already been a tiny up tick in Sydney real estate prices.
 

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but that’s the thing, you’re buying an already heavily depreciated used vehicle, someone else has already taken the hit for you, it’s the same with any used vehicle.

What I was talking about is that confounding Out of the blue fault that costs a lot of money, if you have German cars and haven’t had it happen yet, consider yourself very lucky.
Yeah I get your point but even if it is a 10K hit you have still got a hell of a lot of car for little money.
 

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over 10 years of stagnant or forever lowering of interest rates cannot be good
The problem is that lowering interest rates does not stimulate the economy when they
are already low, the government needs to do more than just rely on the market to self
correct, sometimes you have to make things happen with a stimulus package...
 

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the biggest effect of the last couple of years has been the exchange rate. Everything we import that we buy in USD is higher in cost in AUD than it was a couple of years ago even though the USD price hasn't changed.
A lot of the long term contracts are set defensive at about 70 cents,
I know that Ford did this with Mustang when it was relaunched.

It's a real mixed bag for our industries, exporters find it more cost effective
but importers and local businesses are hurting because of tougher currency rates.
 

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The problem is that lowering interest rates does not stimulate the economy when they
are already low, the government needs to do more than just rely on the market to self
correct, sometimes you have to make things happen with a stimulus package...
They have tried that

It hasn't worked this time like it did last time

Right at the moment we are on shaky ground financially in this country
 

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They have tried that

It hasn't worked this time like it did last time

Right at the moment we are on shaky ground financially in this country
Not really, there's just nothing doing and thanks to tax cuts and no wages growth, people are now not spending, they're saving and paying down debts cause that just don't know what lies ahead....that's all dependent on external forces out of our control.

Things are not that bad, people are just painting gloom because they're so used to living in a continuous boom, they've forgotten what a flat economy is like.

Old freckle is bent on continued government surpluses and not spending, well he has to take the good with the bad and there's consequences for not spending as much as before.
 

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Discussion Starter #32
They have tried that

It hasn't worked this time like it did last time

Right at the moment we are on shaky ground financially in this country
Not really, there's just nothing doing and thanks to tax cuts and no wages growth, people are now not spending, they're saving and paying down debts cause that just don't know what lies ahead....that's all dependent on external forces out of our control.

Things are not that bad, people are just painting gloom because they're so used to living in a continuous boom, they've forgotten what a flat economy is like.

Old freckle is bent on continued government surpluses and not spending, well he has to take the good with the bad and there's consequences for not spending as much as before.
They're being "fiscally conservative" which is what they said they'd do. Some of the associated measures are half the problem, like cutting a truckload of funding from government support offices (Centrelink etc) forcing job cuts of permanent positions, then rehiring the workforce through Labor hire contractors, creates a whole segment of employees people that don't fit the stricter lending criteria for banks.

Like you've said, he has to wear the consequence of lower growth, but I doubt the other mob have anything useful on hand to stimulate growth, and return the level of consumer confidence to kick off an automotive purchasing Renaissance. Even EVs aren't at the purchasing point yet where stimulus is going to drive significant purchasing (particularly with the current minimal infrastructure).
 

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They're being "fiscally conservative" which is what they said they'd do. Some of the associated measures are half the problem, like cutting a truckload of funding from government support offices (Centrelink etc) forcing job cuts of permanent positions, then rehiring the workforce through Labor hire contractors, creates a whole segment of employees people that don't fit the stricter lending criteria for banks.

Like you've said, he has to wear the consequence of lower growth, but I doubt the other mob have anything useful on hand to stimulate growth, and return the level of consumer confidence to kick off an automotive purchasing Renaissance. Even EVs aren't at the purchasing point yet where stimulus is going to drive significant purchasing (particularly with the current minimal infrastructure).
Good post, I wasn't intending to be politically biased here, the alternative
is to spend money by putting it into the community as a stimulus package
but I understand that would undo all the good work begun on reducing debt.

Of more importance, every company has to reset and realise that the sun will
still come up tomorrow and things will keep going. The world is not ending.
 

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Overall there is no doubt things could be done better. The fundamental problem right now is confidence. Raise confidence for the future and people will spend. Some external world issues such as Trump and his war on everything non 'merican nothing can be done for in Australia. Other things on the domestic front govco can play a part and do better. Weather you think Brexit is a good thing or a bad thing, I suggest that the whole mess finally looking like it is getting sorted out is a good thing. It has been a bigger farce than the whole Greek loan default thing earlier this decade. Yup the worst did seem to happen (and continues to( but somehow they make it work and the world has moved on. Finalise Brexit and the world will move on (possibly to the UK imploding into a black hole created by a particularly evil dalek or something - this remains to be seen)

AusGovCo is copping a fair old whack about slow wage growth which is fact. No getting away from it - it is fact. They must explain the whole story with this issue better. Ie that is only part of the equation - on the other side, inflation is also relatively low. Income tax cuts don't add any more to the top line of the pay packet but certainly have given most more to spend in their bank accounts (ie who cares weather it's a wage rise or tax cut - the worker ends up with more money which is the aim). Unemployment, whilst up somewhat on early this year is still also relatively low at 5.4% (September 2019) nationally. Note that 'full employment' is considered to be at 4.5%.

Of course there are no end of other examples where things can be done differently or better. It is important to note that many seemingly simple solutions are anything but - do 1 thing and there will be a cost else where which quite often is considered worse in the greater scheme of things.

Will the RBA lowering the cash rate help any further? Sort of, but not how we traditionally think of it. Dropping the rate to what is roughly on par with the rest of the world will help keep the AUS$ low. That helps keep our exports competitive which is good for employment. Of course the yang of this is it also drives up the cost of imports which certainly won't help our struggling retail sector. How do you objectively measure it to determine the greater good?? Dunno - needs somebody way smarter and on a much higher pay grade than me to work that one out!
 

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I think this is a case where the RBA needed to stay out and just keep
rates the same as in constant, the last thing business and ordinary
people need is change that causes negative consequences.

Maybe get going with Inland Rail project and more dams for farmers
things that take years to do but stick in the minds of people and
business as improvement to infrastructure for when things get better.
 

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The inland rail project should be done and done quickly. It is an infrastructure that will bring results as soon as it is operational. Dams are different. They are no good unless they fill with water and if it rains to fill thee dams then the old ones will be filled too and the need for those new dams is negated. I would prefer to see us planting lots more trees and reducing land clearing. Maybe even an idea about subsidising vegetables would be help. If more people ate vegies then the health costs would go down so the subsidy would be recouped fairly quickly.
The big problem with the RBA reducing rates is that it affects people with savings as well as those who have borrowed. I feel that if you got a mortgage at a certain rate then you shouldn't expect that rate to change frequently. I have noticed that the interest rate on deposits changes a hell of a lot faster than the lending rate does.
 

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The inland rail project should be done and done quickly. It is an infrastructure that will bring results as soon as it is operational. Dams are different. They are no good unless they fill with water and if it rains to fill thee dams then the old ones will be filled too and the need for those new dams is negated. I would prefer to see us planting lots more trees and reducing land clearing. Maybe even an idea about subsidising vegetables would be help. If more people ate vegies then the health costs would go down so the subsidy would be recouped fairly quickly.
The big problem with the RBA reducing rates is that it affects people with savings as well as those who have borrowed. I feel that if you got a mortgage at a certain rate then you shouldn't expect that rate to change frequently. I have noticed that the interest rate on deposits changes a hell of a lot faster than the lending rate does.
Until interest rates start to rise then the opposite will be true.
 
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