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IMO, there's a problem here for Toyota that's not directly connected to the timeline of EV adoption. Toyota is already seen by many young(er) buyers as their parents' brand. Toyota has the oldest buyers of any mainstream brand. Being late to EVs reinforces that "old man's/woman's car" image in the eyes of a lot of younger buyers. That, I think, is the real risk for Toyota here. It's one of image (with potentially big long term consequences) and not of near-term sales.
There's a lot of people 50 and over, not tech savvy, not affluent, who will be buying cars for another 25 to 30 years, and Ford and GM will have nothing for them. At least Toyota probably will have the Corolla and Corolla Cross for them. I expect affluent, college educated people will more easily move over to EV's, and Toyota should probably move Lexus and the more expensive Toyota models like 4Runner and Highlander to EV.
 

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....

So attempting to protect your investments is now a sin? Maybe Toyota actually believes they're on the right road.

I think Toyota was correct in going down Hybrid Lane vs. Elektrik Avenue.
Time will tell,
I know that, like the woo han farce, The Powers That Be are all in for lektrik even though none of the Central Planners ran so much as a lemonaid stand in their entire lives.

Let the market decide.
Whether or not "attempting to protect your investment" is a sin may be a question of religion, but it is not a question of law. In many capitalist countries, what is described here may be illegal restraint of trade. In the US, illegal restraint of trade is a violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. The most historically significant antitrust case was brought against the Standard Oil Company. The breakup of Standard Oil created the Seven Sisters--all major oil companies--and eventually 34 separate corporate entities. Another major break-up of a company found to be in illegal restraint of trade was AT&T in the late 1970s. As I write this, governments both left and right all over the Globe are looking to bring cases as a group of companies known collectively as Big Tech.

Governments bring these cases when the have sufficient evidence that a company may be using its market position to stifle entry by new participants and meaningful competition by existing participants. Toyota may not be doing this, but it has been warned.
 

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Some U.S. market sales data:
  • Sales of hybrids + FCEV from Toyota Motor Sales USA alone in 1st half of 2021: 299,811
  • Sales of BEV from all automakers combined in 1st half of 2021: 217,065
The market is global. The US is just one data point.
 

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Discussion Starter · #24 ·
No problem BlackGTP. In Europe and perhaps mainland China, yes. The heavy handed government dictates in those regions, including outright bans on gasoline, diesel, and in some cases hybrid vehicles, will contribute to BEV gaining traction by 2025 or even earlier whether consumers truly demand BEV or not.

In the U.S., things are more complex. California and the states that adhere to CARB ZEV mandates may see trends for BEV sales growth similar to that of Europe and China. But for the rest of the U.S., I think the growth of hybrids will likely outpace that of BEV well into the late 2020s and early 2030s.
Very possible, but I think a big factor is the cost to the manufacturers, it seems with the massive cost of changing to BEV that manufacturers are going all in and pulling the plug on ICE (see what I did there?). Meaning many simply aren't going to offer an option - like GM - BEV for everyone. It's very possible that Toyota will dominate in the states not adhering to California rules, but I don't know about that. Plus, is Toyota going to abandon California? Isn't that one of their biggest markets?

I'm thinking Toyota will try to kill BEV's via politics over the next year and if they fail then we'll see a their big $35B announcement that they are going BEV. Though, if there is any company that can afford to do BEV and hybrids, it is Toyota. Were I GM, I'd be calling up an activist investor to get involved with Toyota and force them to deplete their massive cash fund and pay a massive dividend to shareholders. :D
 

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^^^ That thing is uglier than sin. ^^^
No doubt...its not a looker, but the point is that it exists contrary to the point of the article.

The article would've been relevant 2-3 years ago, but toyota slid their plans 5 years to the left to line up with what everyone else was doing.
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 · (Edited)
No doubt...its not a looker, but the point is that it exists contrary to the point of the article.

The article would've been relevant 2-3 years ago, but toyota slid their plans 5 years to the left to line up with what everyone else was doing.
It is not contrary to the point of the article. The article is talking about a cohesive BEV program like VW or GM's. Your article discusses one vehicle and makes no mention of an overall bigger program, one BEV vehicle neither proves nor disproves an overall larger BEV initiative at Toyota.
 

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It is not contrary to the point of the article. The article is talking about a cohesive BEV program like VW or GM's. Your article discusses one vehicle and makes no mention of an overall bigger program, one BEV vehicle neither proves nor disproves an overall larger BEV initiative at Toyota.
Simple Google search could've prevented all of this:


You're welcome
 

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The market is global. The US is just one data point.
Yup. The opinion piece from the OP concerns the U.S. market. Toyota's BEV strategies in other markets are optimized for the regulatory regimes in those markets. The bZ series that sdotjeezy mentioned for example, represents a product lineup that's best suited to the regulations in Europe and China, and will be launched there first though bZ vehicles will eventually be sold in other regions.

As another example, the C+Pod BEV is a kei car specifically targeted to the Japan Domestic Market.
 

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Toyota appears to have not foreseen this and therefore the rapid ascent of BEV. They certainly do have battery vehicles coming, but I don't think they planned on BEV gaining such strong legislative support. As we've not heard of any grand $35B BEV investments from Toyota, I suspect they don't have the groundwork laid for a big BEV expansion.
Nonsense. They have been investing in EV's for a long time, they have over 1000 patents on solid state batteries alone - more than anybody else. Just because they don't post something on Twitter every 15 seconds doesn't mean they aren't investing/engineering.

I do agree that if left to market forces that Toyota does have the right approach. But, right or wrong, the governments have stepped in and many are mandating BEV leaving Toyota's plans in shambles.
Reality is most people are going to drive hybrid PU/SUV's/Crossovers until EV tech gets to mainstream pricing. See the Rav4 Hybrid that is well respected. So providing hybrids until EV's are mainstream is a sensible approach. The political winds are constantly changing.

Yeah...Toyota is totally ignoring the BEV market:

View attachment 64186

And from 2012-14 they had a plug in Prius(?) that was ahead of the curve but nobody bought.....

I'm not even a Toyota fan, but this article seemed like a hit piece to me not based in reality.
 

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I'm not even a Toyota fan, but this article seemed like a hit piece to me not based in reality.
+1
Expect nothing less from the propaganda artists at Ars Technica. ;)
 

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Discussion Starter · #33 · (Edited)
Nonsense. They have been investing in EV's for a long time, they have over 1000 patents on solid state batteries alone - more than anybody else. Just because they don't post something on Twitter every 15 seconds doesn't mean they aren't investing/engineering.



Reality is most people are going to drive hybrid PU/SUV's/Crossovers until EV tech gets to mainstream pricing. See the Rav4 Hybrid that is well respected. So providing hybrids until EV's are mainstream is a sensible approach. The political winds are constantly changing.


And from 2012-14 they had a plug in Prius(?) that was ahead of the curve but nobody bought.....

I'm not even a Toyota fan, but this article seemed like a hit piece to me not based in reality.
Yes, they've certainly have efforts (they sell in China), but throw this into Google's search bar "toyota lobbying against battery" and look at all of the articles. My take is Toyota had something else in mind for the BEV timetable and they are trying to change the current thinking to suit their needs. One guess is they planned for a much longer rollout to BEV with hybrids and hydrogen in between. No one is supporting hydrogen for passenger vehicles, so there wont be an infrastructure for cars (might be one for trucks) and everyone else jumping into BEV before they planned it. Or, think of it this way - many of the big car makes are well into building battery factories and manufacturing facilities to support big changeovers, Toyota might have some stuff in the works, but my guess is nothing to the magnitude of VW or GM in the near term.

Just as GM has made missteps in the past, Toyota appears (time will tell) have made their own costly misstep - only difference is we are used to seeing GM trip on their own feet, now it is Toyota's turn. And, our politicians better not soften national BEV policies to help out Toyota at the expense of GM/Ford who both appear to be much better prepared for BEV.

Here's an article better laying out how/why Toyota is behind (more or less what I guessed) and using more mainstream news sources:

Toyota Led on Clean Cars. Now Critics Say It Works to Delay Them. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Toyota to review climate stance as investors turn up the heat | Reuters
 

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Discussion Starter · #34 ·
Simple Google search could've prevented all of this:


You're welcome
Why so late in the game vs. GM/VW? Why is Toyota lobbying to slow down the adaption of BEV?
 

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Toyota is lobbying to protect the significant investment they still have in Hybrid Electric powered autos which they feel should be still viable for the next 10-15 years...it isn't because they're unprepared for EV legislation. They're simultaneously moving to produce pure electrics that'll fall at worst 2 years behind GM. They just want to protect the product they currently have as well, it's really simple if you look at it impartially, but you are a self professed "Toyota hater" (your words BTW) so...there's that.

Why is GM so far behind VW??? Have you ever thought that maybe GM isn't on VWs level right now, for all the EV bluster GM only really has 2 "toy car" EVs out right now
 

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Discussion Starter · #36 ·
Toyota is lobbying to protect the significant investment they still have in Hybrid Electric powered autos which they feel should be still viable for the next 10-15 years...it isn't because they're unprepared for EV legislation. They're simultaneously moving to produce pure electrics that'll fall at worst 2 years behind GM. They just want to protect the product they currently have as well, it's really simple if you look at it impartially, but you are a self professed "Toyota hater" (your words BTW) so...there's that.

Why is GM so far behind VW??? Have you ever thought that maybe GM isn't on VWs level right now, for all the EV bluster GM only really has 2 "toy car" EVs out right now
The topic is Toyota, not GM. The question should be, why is VW in the lead and not Toyota?

Why is Toyota not in the lead with BEV? With their dominance of the hybrid market and highly related tech to BEV, Toyota should be in the lead.

No one is saying that Toyota does not have the tech, they certainly do. They've clearly been trying to maintain their dominance with hybrid's and therefore their profits while guiding the industry toward tech they were certain they could lead in - hydrogen and solid state batteries, and that isn't panning out (very GM like - attempting to leapfrog everyone). Now that it isn't panning out they are relying on lobbyists (also very GM like) and, while not hugely late to the BEV game, they certainly aren't leading it.

Toyota bet wrong and is at risk of losing their unquestioned dominance they had with hybrids that could've very well been leveraged to dominance of BEV's - they should've been leading the charge to BEV, not letting VW and everyone else do it.
 

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The topic is Toyota, not GM. The question should be, why is VW in the lead and not Toyota?

Why is Toyota not in the lead with BEV? With their dominance of the hybrid market and highly related tech to BEV, Toyota should be in the lead.

No one is saying that Toyota does not have the tech, they certainly do. They've clearly been trying to maintain their dominance with hybrid's and therefore their profits while guiding the industry toward tech they were certain they could lead in - hydrogen and solid state batteries, and that isn't panning out (very GM like - attempting to leapfrog everyone). Now that it isn't panning out they are relying on lobbyists (also very GM like) and, while not hugely late to the BEV game, they certainly aren't leading it.

Toyota bet wrong and is at risk of losing their unquestioned dominance they had with hybrids that could've very well been leveraged to dominance of BEV's - they should've been leading the charge to BEV, not letting VW and everyone else do it.
Whatever...the premise of the article is wrong and by proxy you're wrong. You injected the lobbying argument once it was proven that Toyota has a BEV program that apparently neither you or the author (you too????) knew about, & guess what? On top of that everyone lobbied for eased standards including....dun, dun, duuuun GM: they might even turned coat after the election but they were in on it as well.

Toyota is in no position of peril...if they can get the bz4 Whatever out by 23 they'll be in the same place as damn near everyone else incliding VW despite their "head start".

They didn't bet wrong either...last I checked they still outsell EVs...like I said the lobbying was to preserve their Hybrid tech investment...it isn't like they're lobbying to continue selling hundreds of thousands of pushrod V8s in 2035. They feel that their Hybrid tech has a place in an EV dominated future, I thought that all of you anti EV folks loved that idea?

and why isn't GM ahead of VW? They should be seeing how they abandoned ICE development earlier and have zero hybrid tech on the market right now??? You'd think that with an antiquated ICE lineup circa 2015ish that they would've been further along with their EV lineup right?
 

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Some U.S. market sales data:
  • Sales of hybrids + FCEV from Toyota Motor Sales USA alone in 1st half of 2021: 299,811
  • Sales of BEV from all automakers combined in 1st half of 2021: 217,065
Nah...Toyota went all in on the wrong tech.
 

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I'm not even a Toyota fan, but this article seemed like a hit piece to me not based in reality.
IMO, the article is accurate. Toyota has a history of not just lagging on BEV development but actively marketing and lobbying against the adoption of BEVs. It's a sequence of activities and events that I'm too lazy to go digging for but I'm sure anyone can search for it. Yes, they've announced the bZ line but nothing yet on battery supply or battery factories. Developing the vehicle is only part of the picture. It's possible they have it all sorted out in the background but the public (including the media) can only judge by what is known. Others (GM, VW, Tesla etc.) already either have battery factories or are building them in earnest.

It's not wrong that Toyota is doing what they are doing. They have an investment in hybrids and they are doing everything to maximize the return on that. That's what a good business should do once they've made such an investment. But that strategy is costing them goodwill with younger buyers and some of the "green" buyers who were very loyal to them until now. That could be a long-term strategic mistake, sort of like when GM and Ford took their customers for granted 40-50 years ago.
 

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Discussion Starter · #40 · (Edited)
Whatever...the premise of the article is wrong and by proxy you're wrong. You injected the lobbying argument once it was proven that Toyota has a BEV program that apparently neither you or the author (you too????) knew about, & guess what? On top of that everyone lobbied for eased standards including....dun, dun, duuuun GM: they might even turned coat after the election but they were in on it as well.

Toyota is in no position of peril...if they can get the bz4 Whatever out by 23 they'll be in the same place as damn near everyone else incliding VW despite their "head start".

They didn't bet wrong either...last I checked they still outsell EVs...like I said the lobbying was to preserve their Hybrid tech investment...it isn't like they're lobbying to continue selling hundreds of thousands of pushrod V8s in 2035. They feel that their Hybrid tech has a place in an EV dominated future, I thought that all of you anti EV folks loved that idea?

and why isn't GM ahead of VW? They should be seeing how they abandoned ICE development earlier and have zero hybrid tech on the market right now??? You'd think that with an antiquated ICE lineup circa 2015ish that they would've been further along with their EV lineup right?
What do you mean I injected lobbying? That's the whole point of the article that Toyota is resorting to lobbying to help compensate for their miss.

Yes, many of the manufacturers lobbied against tighter regulations. Key word is past tense. Toyota is actively lobbying against BEV.

You quote past/current performance, no one is disputing Toyota is the king today and a vastly wealthy company You dance around the question and the crux of the article - why is Toyota NOT in the lead position with BEV's? They at best seem to be contemporary, but behind VW - Toyota was the leader for the past 20 years or so (excluding Tesla), why are they giving away their leadership position if they were planning for worldwide BEV rollouts and not just China? They are doing all this because they bet on hydrogen and dry batteries. So they are left with plan B and trying to slow down the adaptation of BEV's for their own benefit. No, I don't think they are going out of business, but rather, their reputation they've spent so much time and money cultivating, is on the line.

GM's performance with BEV's has no bearing on the topic of Toyota. GM is no longer lobbying against BEV's, they are committed to the tech.

And, I've said numerous times that I look forward to my next car being a BEV.
 
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