I have to say that that is impressive.
In terms of sales 2030, now how many ice vehicles will still be on the road? I say by the mid 30s easyWe don't have HOL around here, but I believe it places that do, I believe they have already started reducing that type.
I know you are a really smart guy, but when (what year) do you think the VIO will get to 50% - 60%EV?
You make it sound like it would be sometime soon, I'm thinking around 2045 - 2050.
You think half or more of vehicles sold in 2030 will be EV?In terms of sales 2030, now how many ice vehicles will still be on the road? I say by the mid 30s easy
Exactly; even the recent "Aggressive goals" by the OEM's are only 40-50% of sales by 2030.It's going to be a long time before there are more EV's on the road than ICE vehicles
People hang on to their cars for about 10 years right?
So if the last ICE powered vehicles are sold in say 2030-2034 then they will still be driven up until around 2040-2045 by the most stubborn, died in the wool ICE followers
And that's just private vehicles
Larger trucks and commercials will still be Diesel/Petrol powered for many years to come after that
I guess we willYou think half or more of vehicles sold in 2030 will be EV?
Obviously new car sales mix is going to impact when EV hit 50% of all vehicles, but you aren't even close to any of the studies I've read.
Here they are predicting VIO (Car Parc) will be 4% EV in 2030.
Exactly; even the recent "Aggressive goals" by the OEM's are only 40-50% of sales by 2030.
To be fair the Ring is kind of a "power track" though, so it plays into the "straight line" strengths somewhat. Tons of curves too obviously though. Plus the shear length plays against EV since at some point you won't be able to get full power out of the motor(s).According to tweet from Musk, this was an unmodified car straight from the factory. Good to see EVs showing they can tackle challenging roads on par with the best of the ICE vehicles of the same category. A lot of people were dismissing EVs as only good for straight-line acceleration. That hasn't been the case for a while but the perception lingers. So good to see more data points like this.
I suspect this will prompt Porsche to try to beat this time. They still have the Taycan Turbo S up their sleeve (their previous time was with the Turbo). And that should hopefully prompt Tesla to push harder to get the Plaid+ out and so on
Agreed! There's no reason why EVs can't have super sticky tires and aggressive suspension, and having better control over weight distribution with battery placement should yield to some really cool results. Plus it's much easier to have super advanced AWD systems where each wheel gets the perfect amount of power for the situation electronically, than with a traditional mechanical setup.I don’t think I have ever heard anyone dismissing EV’s as only straight line monsters. I think that might be the focus because the pull they have is excellent but that doesn’t mean they can’t be good at turning as well.
They should be awesome at a road course lap because the super low CG that the batteries create is perfect for handling and the insane torque helps them come off the corners while always being in the perfect gear. The only thing that’s a slight negative about a hero lap is the weight which is more than offset by everything else.
I don't think the point of these track times for cars like the Model S is to claim they are track cars. I mean, the Model S is a full-size sedan that can comfortably seat 5 (possibly 7 if that options re-appears as speculated). No one in their right mind would buy a Model S as a track car. Same for the Taycan, which is a fairly big 4-seater. IMO, the point is to show they can handle well and corner well for people who care about that in everyday driving.To be fair the Ring is kind of a "power track" though, so it plays into the "straight line" strengths somewhat. Tons of curves too obviously though. Plus the shear length plays against EV since at some point you won't be able to get full power out of the motor(s).
Really cool to start seeing some times for more EVs, but it starts to really show the "hero lap" situation. Hero laps are common with ICE cars too, so not a knock specifically against Tesla, but if you are going to go do an HPDE or track day, I think the performance drop off starts to be sharper for EV in terms of continously running those times, and being able to go to all your sessions for the whole day/weekend with only a single car. Once charge times get super short part of that concern goes away!