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The Tesla Model 3 just misses out on an outright victory in Germany.

The German new car market dives -25.7% year-on-year in September to 196.972 units, tilting the year-to-date volume into negative territory at -1.2% and 2.017.561. We have adjusted our 2021 Forecast slightly down to 2.79 million units (-4%) which would be the lowest annual German volume in 36 years: since 1985 (2.38m). In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (-23.3%) and BMW (-18.7%) both resist better than their home market and cement their leading positions in the ranking. Mercedes (-49.8%) implodes to 7% share vs. 8.2% so far this year. Opel (-1.2%) posts the best result in the Top 9 and climbs to #4, its highest ranking since September 2018 (#3). Hyundai (-11.8%) breaks into the German Top 5 for the very first time at #5, eclipsing its previous ranking record of #6 set just last month. Reversely Ford (-51.3%), Skoda (-47.5%), Audi (-38.9%) and Renault (-33.3%) all sink. Tesla (+157.8%) goes completely against the negative trend and cracks the German Top 10 for the first time at #10 with 4% share. Other gainers further down include Cupra (+4552.5%), Maserati (+212.5%), Alpine (+157.1%), Lada (+116.1%), Polestar (+108.7%), DS (+73.8%), Rolls Royce (+66.7%), Aston Martin (+58.8%), Suzuki (+50%), Smart (+23%), Lexus (+20.1%) and Bentley (+18%).

Historical event in the German models ranking: the VW Golf’s pole position is under threat: down -41% year-on-year it only holds 3.5% of its home market. In contrast, the Tesla Model 3 (+146%) takes the brand’s backloading in end-of-quarters to the next level and ends the month at #2 overall, only 58 sales below the Golf and smashing its ranking, volume (6.828) and share (3.5%) records in the process. A staggering performance by the world’s favourite EV. The Opel Corsa (-31.6%) rallies back up 22 spots on August to land on the third step of the podium, while the Fiat 500 lineup (-30%) breaks its ranking record for the second month running at #4. The BMW 3 Series (+16.5%) shines but is down two ranks on last month to #5, distancing the VW T-Roc (-15.7%) and Up (+25.4%). The Hyundai Kona (-9.3%) breaks into the German Top 10 for the second time after last December (#10) at a record #8 while the new gen Opel Mokka delivers the nameplate’s first ever Top 10 at #9 (previous best #12 in August 2017). The Skoda Enyaq is up 25 spots on August to climb to a record 23rd place, just as the Tesla Model Y is up 13 to #62 and the Hyundai Ioniq 5 is up 14 to #68. This month we welcome the Hyundai Staria at #156 and the Kia EV6 at #273.

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Wow Tesla do the impossible No2 crack the nationalistic buying German car market, and the German Tesla production lines not open yet. American assembled cars ace it. Germans love Fiat's little classic retro 500 No4, and the Hyundai Kona.

Lowest German monthly sales in 36 years German September sales down -25.7%, Rear-Wheel-Drive Tesla Model 3 sales up +146%. Nice to see Tesla Model 3 nearly hit the German top spot, and No1 spot in the UK the two biggest car markets in Europe.
 
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Wow - I know with the chip shortage this isn't very indicative of anything, but, still - that's crazy! Good for Tesla, good for USA!
 

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The Tesla 3 and Y going to Europe are coming from China until the German factory is up and running.

I expect GM will make a push to get back into Europe once Cadillac and Chevy have more EVs available. For vehicles available in the US and China, I'm going to guess they will go with China. Unless the UAW steps in...

Cadillac Europe
Chevrolet Europe
 

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It looks like Tesla 3 sold a little under 3K in August, is it possible they "clumped" the sales into September? Or did the sales really double month-to-month?

 

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It looks like Tesla 3 sold a little under 3K in August, is it possible they "clumped" the sales into September? Or did the sales really double month-to-month?

Tesla tends to deliver to specific markets in batches, and August seems to have been a "European month". So I don't expect this to be sustained rate.
 
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Tesla tends to deliver to specific markets in batches, and August seems to have been a "European month". So I don't expect this to be sustained rate.
Is this done for marketing reasons, so that they can claim to be a "best seller" in a specific month and generate headlines like this? Or am I just being paranoid?
 
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Is this done for marketing reasons, so that they can claim to be a "best seller" in a specific month and generate headlines like this? Or am I just being paranoid?
I think it's mostly to simplify manufacturing. I suspect it's easier to build a bunch of Euro-spec vehicles and then switch to building a bunch of China-spec vehicles (as they are both in Shanghai for now) rather than to build a mix of everything. all the time. Tesla also tends to prioritize foreign markets earlier in the quarter and local markets towards the end so they don't end up with a lot of inventory in transit when they report the quarterly numbers.

A lot of this should get smoothed out when the Berlin factory is online.
 

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I think it's mostly to simplify manufacturing. I suspect it's easier to build a bunch of Euro-spec vehicles and then switch to building a bunch of China-spec vehicles (as they are both in Shanghai for now) rather than to build a mix of everything. all the time. Tesla also tends to prioritize foreign markets earlier in the quarter and local markets towards the end so they don't end up with a lot of inventory in transit when they report the quarterly numbers.

A lot of this should get smoothed out when the Berlin factory is online.
Makes sense. The 3 is doing well in Germany any way you count the sales.
 

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Market Caps

Tesla ........................................................................$808 billion


BMW GM Ford Toyota Ferrari .......................$807 billion(combined)
Honda Daimler Hyundai Mazda
Subaru Volkswagen
 

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I'm surprised Germans don't mind the interior 'design' which basically consists of an iPad jutting up from the dash.
 

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Meanwhile, over at GM, how many times have they said they are going into Europe? LOLOLO
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Market Caps

Tesla ........................................................................$808 billion


BMW GM Ford Toyota Ferrari .......................$807 billion(combined)
Honda Daimler Hyundai Mazda
Subaru Volkswagen


 

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Market Caps

Tesla ........................................................................$808 billion


BMW GM Ford Toyota Ferrari .......................$807 billion(combined)
Honda Daimler Hyundai Mazda
Subaru Volkswagen
The surprising thing is that everyone knows how overweight Tesla’s valuation is but still go along with the nonsense assumptions that the company should be valued in such a fictitious way. It beggars belief that so many are that gullible.
 

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The surprising thing is that everyone knows how overweight Tesla’s valuation is but still go along with the nonsense assumptions that the company should be valued in such a fictitious way. It beggars belief that so many are that gullible.
Tesla has showed a knack for innovation beyond the norm
 
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