So, Where Is This All Going?

The story that GM is telling now is that liquidity isn't a problem, they can raise $41B and that will hold them until 3rd. quarter 2010, at which time the UAW agreements kick in, they will be able to make many small cars at a profit, and surely the economy will be much improved by then. Sorry, but that sounds a bit like a fairy tale to me. How about the cash burn rate accelerates because cars sales remain flat, GMAC and Delphi won't go away, there are too many brands to support, cash is gone, can't get a loan, and Chapter 11. Wall Street gives GM an 80-85% likelyhood of loan default within the next 5 years. How does that grab you? No sense in debating how GM got into this mess, the debate is how does GM get out. Unless the fairy tale comes true, I think Chapter 11 is an eventuality. And though Chapter 11 in this economy is uncharted territory for sure (just ask Delphi), it may be GM's only hope to survive as an independent auto manufacturer. Chapter 11 could give GM a much freer hand to do what is neccessary at much less cost. GM really needs to start all over again in the U.S. with 50% fewer dealers and at maximum 4 brands. That way advertising dollars can be much more effectively spent, the remaining dealers would be much healthier, and GM would need far less redundant management. All that is needed are 4 divisions:
Chevrolet (Toyota)
Cadillac (Lexus)
Saturn (Scion)
GMC (Hino, commercial trucks ONLY)
Buick, Pontiac and Saab (at least in this country) have no brand equity anymore. They are obsolete and only take resources away from the potentially successful divisions. My greatest fear is that GM muddles trough this current crisis, broken business model more or less intact. Rick's endless restructuring is in danger of becoming just more of the same shell game started by Roger Smith back in the 80's. Drastic measure need to be taken now while there is still something to work with.