GM Inside News Forum banner
1 - 20 of 38 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,341 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
The Russian oil boom, which has produced a gusher of cash, political power and an opulent elite - and has helped fuel the country's renewed assertiveness in Georgia and elsewhere - is on shakier ground than officials in Moscow would like to admit.

Most of the oil produced after the country's 1998 financial collapse has come from drilling and re-drilling old Soviet oil fields with more advanced equipment - squeezing more black gold out of the same ground - and efforts to develop new fields have been slow or non-existent.

That strategy is potentially disastrous, said Valery Kryukov, who researches oil companies in western Siberia for a government-funded think tank.

"If the situation which exists now stays the same, oil production will start to decline seriously in two years," Kryukov said in a phone interview from his offices in the city of Novosibirsk.

The implications extend far beyond Russia's borders. Last year, Russia was the world's second-largest oil producer. If its output begins to decline or is hampered by inept or corrupt business practices, the price of oil could begin climbing again.

http://www.kansascity.com/451/story/763829.html

Drill early and often!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,442 Posts
I'd so much like for this to be true, and Russia to have screwed up the backup plan!


Why would you want this to be true?

With Russia invading Georgia, and the current oil pipeline running through it, it gives the speculators on Wallstreet a reason to keep jacking up the price of oil.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
17,579 Posts
Well:

1. I am not a big fan of Russia, and the latest developments show that a strong and well economically-supported Russia in its present shape is not something the rest of the world finds comfortable to deal with. The conflict might have a temporary effect on gas prices, but most importantly, it showed the true face of Russia and showed the need to stop the concession policy and for Europe to take a unified stance.

2. Europe and the entire civilized world needs some better motivation to replace oil ASAP. The Swedes are doing their part, the rest of Europe is just content with the status quo.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,341 Posts
Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Yikes, Perhaps Russian Putin is looking to go after oil rich neighbours
Or control of the supply, as in the pipe line in Georgia, the only one in that part of the world they don't control.

Another article about Russian oil:

Shortfalls in Russian Oil Supplies to Czech Republic Continue

In August the Czech Republic is still encountering a fall in Russian oil supplies from the Druzhba oil pipeline, and now there is a danger that it is also going to have problems with oil flowing to the Czech Republic by the other pipeline, the IKL [Ingolstadt- Kralupy-Litvinov - pipeline connected to Transalpine pipeline (TAL) from Trieste]. This pipeline is mainly used to supply us with oil from Azerbaijan, which after Russia is the second largest supplier of this key commodity.

However, because of the armed conflict in Georgia with Russia, the pipeline from Azerbaijan was closed, and there is also speculation that Russian planes bombed it. However, its administrator, British Petroleum, has not confirmed any damage to the pipeline. However, there are difficulties concerning the continuation of the pipeline in Turkey, where it ends in the port of Ceyhan and from where Azerbaijani oil is then transported to us.

During the last few days there was a fire at the pipeline in Turkey after a bomb planted by Kurdish rebels, and the pipeline's administrator there is now starting to ascertain the damage. From Turkish Ceyhan Azerbaijani oil goes in tankers to Italian Trieste, from where it is transported by further pipelines to the refinery in Kralupy.

"Yes, difficulties with the transport of Azerbaijani oil may occur, but thus far we do not have any official information," Ivan Ottie, a member of Unipetrol's board of directors, told Mlada Fronta Dnes. However, according to him, any eventual shortfall in Azerbaijani oil would not mean any "drama" because IKL is also capable of transporting any other kind of oil and the Kralupy refinery is also able to process more types of oil, not only Azerbaijani oil. Unipetrol is the main shareholder of Ceska Rafinerska [Czech Oil Refining], which processes oil at Kralupy.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/busine...sian_oil_supplies_to_czech_republic_continue/
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,341 Posts
Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Why would you want this to be true?

With Russia invading Georgia, and the current oil pipeline running through it, it gives the speculators on Wallstreet a reason to keep jacking up the price of oil.
Reduced supply with continued or increasing demand will result in higher prices regardless of speculation. Economics 101 :brick
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,442 Posts
Reduced supply with continued or increasing demand will result in higher prices regardless of speculation. Economics 101 :brick


......so explain the price of oil in mid july...when it went up to $147 a barrel? It has already been proven that the price of oil has skyrocketed without just cause.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,442 Posts
Reduced supply with continued or increasing demand will result in higher prices regardless of speculation. Economics 101 :brick


......so explain the price of oil in mid july...when it went up to $147 a barrel? It has already been proven that the price of oil has skyrocketed without just cause.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,341 Posts
Discussion Starter · #10 ·
......so explain the price of oil in mid july...when it went up to $147 a barrel? It has already been proven that the price of oil has skyrocketed without just cause.
Speculators take positions based on market conditions and projections/trends. At some point this will usually result in either a higher price than justified, oil mid July. or a lower price than justified, the Dollar v Euro until the last couple of weeks. Both are now correcting. Oil demand started to drop 1Q 2008. Also supply is increasing. Part of the price run up is tied to that same drop in the value of the Dollar. Markets in general never respond well to uncertainty. I seem to recall hearing about some political problems in the mid-east.

From the Oil Market Report:

Crude prices had fallen $30/bbl from mid-July highs by early August on increased supplies, weaker OECD demand and as the first US Gulf hurricanes passed without causing damage. Currently, neither the recent shut-down of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, nor military clashes in the Caucasus have materially affected prices.

OECD oil stocks fell by 15.3 mb in June to 2,579 mb, confirming the near absence of the usual 0.9 mb/d 2Q stockbuild. Weak demand kept OECD forward demand cover above average at 53.4 days. Preliminary July data for the US, Japan and the EU-16 show a 30 mb stockbuild.

Global oil supply increased by 890 kb/d in July to 87.8 mb/d. Norway, Canada, Argentina and Brazil underpinned non-OPEC growth of 520 kb/d, amid a lull in seasonal maintenance elsewhere. Growth in non-OPEC output now averages 455 kb/d for 2008 and 665 kb/d for 2009, after 425 kb/d in 2007.

OPEC July crude supplies rose by 145 kb/d to 32.8 mb/d. Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Iran all saw higher output, although over 0.5 mb/d remains shuttered in Nigeria. Effective OPEC spare capacity is 1.5 mb/d, but should rise by end-2008 and through 2009.

Global oil product demand for 2008 remains unchanged at 86.9 mb/d (+0.9% or 0.8 mb/d versus 2007). Demand in 2009 is nudged up 70 kb/d to 87.8 mb/d (+1.1% or 0.9 mb/d versus 2008). Growth is driven by projected non-OECD demand, largely unchanged at 38.3 mb/d in 2008 and 39.7 mb/d in 2009.

Global refinery crude throughput averaged 75.0 mb/d in July, 0.1 mb/d up versus June. Lower OECD crude run estimates on still-weak US refining margins offset upward revisions to China, after its record June throughput.

Here is the link to the report including graphs:

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

As to your second statement, I don't believe you can find any empirical evidence to support what you're saying. Congress took a run at supporting that position in Congressional hearings and were unsuccessful. I believe you will be able to produce a long list of statements to this effect by various politicians and commentators, all of which are personal opinion when it comes down to it.

Further, when adjusted for inflation, the first period during which you paid more than in 1979 was the last half of 2005. We are now in the third period of gas being more expensive than 1979 since 2005. There are at least three times during that 26 year period, '79-'05, you were paying approximately 50% of what you were paying in '79. :yup: Hope this is helpful!
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
6,653 Posts
Well:

1. I am not a big fan of Russia, and the latest developments show that a strong and well economically-supported Russia in its present shape is not something the rest of the world finds comfortable to deal with. The conflict might have a temporary effect on gas prices, but most importantly, it showed the true face of Russia and showed the need to stop the concession policy and for Europe to take a unified stance.

2. Europe and the entire civilized world needs some better motivation to replace oil ASAP. The Swedes are doing their part, the rest of Europe is just content with the status quo.
The Europeans have no problem being held hostage to Russia and its oil. Come to think of it, it is hard to see where Europeans have any problems with any world despot. All that matters to the Europeans is that they stop global warming and procreation.

Given that Europe has a population about twice the size of the United States, I fail to see why the U.S. involves itself at all in European politics. If Europeans cannot defend themselves from... themselves, that is their problem.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,341 Posts
Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Just nuk them, then there will be no need for oil demand in Russia.
As long as I can get one or two great looking Russian women out first.

As appealing as your proposal will be to some, the reality is Russia produces about 3.4 times as much oil as it consumes. This allows them to export approximately 6.8 Million barrels of oil per day bringing approximately $782 Million per day into their country. If you think gas is expensive now instantly remove 6.8 Million barrels a day from the supply and see what happens.

Drill here, drill now!!!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,966 Posts
......so explain the price of oil in mid july...when it went up to $147 a barrel? It has already been proven that the price of oil has skyrocketed without just cause.
The price of oil can go up (usually temporarily) even though demand is down. The price of oil will always go up when demand goes up.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,341 Posts
Discussion Starter · #15 ·
......so explain the price of oil in mid july...when it went up to $147 a barrel? It has already been proven that the price of oil has skyrocketed without just cause.
The price of oil can go up (usually temporarily) even though demand is down. The price of oil will always go up when demand goes up.
Why didn't I think of this? :confused:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,391 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
17,579 Posts
Given that Europe has a population about twice the size of the United States, I fail to see why the U.S. involves itself at all in European politics. If Europeans cannot defend themselves from... themselves, that is their problem.
Umm... What involvement in European politics are you speaking about, I haven't noticed any? As concerns the possible Russia-Georgia involvement, I consider both countries off-Europe - and the population numbers you are citing do not include either, FWIK.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,106 Posts
Umm... What involvement in European politics are you speaking about, I haven't noticed any? As concerns the possible Russia-Georgia involvement, I consider both countries off-Europe - and the population numbers you are citing do not include either, FWIK.
Bosnia, Kosovo..... If not for the US you guys would still debate about what to do.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,066 Posts
1 - 20 of 38 Posts
Top