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Rivian reaffirmed its annual production forecast of 25,000 units as it continues to battle supply chain disruptions and high material costs.

May 11, 2022 04:46 PM UPDATED 18 HOURS AGO



Rivian Automotive Inc. on Wednesday said it posted a first-quarter net loss of $1.6 billion on revenue of $95 million.
It posted a quarterly loss of $414 million a year ago, but that was before it launched production at its plant in Normal, Ill.
The EV startup reaffirmed its annual production forecast of 25,000 units as it continues to battle supply chain disruptions and high material costs. The Irvine, Calif.-based company's shares rose about 4 percent to $21.42 in extended trading.

Rivian had halved its 2022 forecast in March as it struggled to secure the chips needed to make its R1T pickup truck, R1S SUV and electric delivery van for Amazon Inc.

It delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter, up from 909 units in the previous quarter.
Rivian said it has received over 90,000 pre-orders for its R1S SUV and R1T pickup truck.
The $95 million in revenue for the quarter came in below Wall Street's forecast of $131 million.

EV-newcomer Rivian is struggling after a blockbuster listing in November, the sixth biggest IPO on U.S. record, helped put it on the map. The company was first-to-market with an electric pickup, beating out Ford Motor Co. -- an investor -- and the likes of General Motors and Tesla Inc. It has blamed parts shortages, Covid-19 outbreaks and production hiccups for holding it back.

“Supply chain continues to be the bottleneck of our production,” Rivian said in its shareholder letter. “We have been forced to stop production for longer periods than anticipated, resulting in approximately a quarter of the planned production time being lost due to supplier constraints.”

Rivian said it ended the quarter with $17 billion in cash and cash equivalents, excluding additional lines of credit, down from $18.4 billion at the end of 2021. The company said the funds are sufficient to take it through to the start of production of a next-generation mid-price vehicle to be assembled at a new plant to be built in Georgia.

While output from the Normal plant is constrained, the company already is trying to expand its manufacturing footprint to boost capacity. The company received $1.5 billion in state and local incentives earlier this month to build a second $5 billion factory in Georgia, which it hopes will start up in 2024.

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So Rivian made 1,227 vehicles in Q1 2022, made a net loss of $1.6 billions = $1.3 millions loss on the roof of every Rivian vehicle it delivered in Q1 wow that makes Opel Group were brilliant in comparison, that's after getting $1.5 billions in state and local incentives free money, investors money/lines of credit was $18.4 billions Cash in the piggy bank at the end of 2021 has dropped to $17 billions in the piggy bank in Q1 2022, $1.4 billions has gone missing in the piggy bank in Q1 in just one-quarter at that rate of haemorrhaging investors money/credit lines/free state and local incentives the money will run dry the piggy bank will be empty in 12 quarters time or 4 years time.

Rivian never had any opposition making electric pick-ups in 2021, over the next 4 years every man and his dog will start offering them, Rivian managed to deliver 1,227 vehicles in Q1 so multiply x 4 = 4,908 proven deliveries a year, so it will take about 18 years to clear the back log of 90,000 pre-orders, when the last person to order one would their Rivian pre-order, or 9 years on a wait list now they are opening up a 2nd new plant in 2024.

Can't help but think if they are making only $98 millions in revenue, and losing $1.6 billion in Q1 and Rivian made a loss on roof of $1.3 millions on the roof of every truck/van it delivered in Q1 that is totally unsustainable even with a new plant coming online it hopes will be open in 2024.

Rivian deliveries were forecast to be 10,000 delivered last year, By the end of 2021, the company produced 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920 of them to customers (in the U.S.). Rivian are now promising 25,000 deliveries in 2022, delivered 1,227 or 409 deliveries a month in Q1 x 12 months = 4908 sales a year or will it be Rivian's 25,000 who knows?

Rivian hope to be selling 1 million EV's trucks & vans a year by 2030 LOL, obviously based on Jim Farley won't be selling any F-Series trucks anymore as they will will have cornered have the US market for truck buyers $75,500 entry model prices, the sort of money every super rich American pick-up truck buyer has in their wallets in the back pockets.
 
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I feel assured I will NEVER. AGAIN. read how GM supposedly lost $9000 on every Bolt.

Right?

To BlackGTP's post elsewhere asking 'does anyone doubt Rivian will figure it out'?
I have doubts - they're over-estimating their volume potential by a wide margin.
Making stuff is difficult.. Musk had to sleep in a Tent, and a now a tiny house to sort out Starship.
He is soon going to be at a homeless encampment in SF sorting out disinformation
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 · (Edited)
Musk said saying you are going to do EV's is the easy bit in theory, actually delivering it upscaling production of EV's the logistics of bringing the all materials & parts together and making a tidy profit on it is a completely different ball game a lot harder to achieve in practice.
 

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Musk said saying you are going to do EV's is the easy bit in theory, actually delivering it upscaling production of EV's the logistics of bringing the all materials & parts together and making a tidy profit on it is a completely different ball game a lot harder to achieve in practice.
You’ll remember that Tesla only started making big profits on its vehicle sales once Musk increased the price, Cost Of Goods Sold price is $36k, average sale price of high volume 3/Y is currently around $9K above that but prior to 2021 it was practically break even.
 

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Would enjoy reading a company-history of Tesla's profit/losses ; have they broken even as a company yet?
A two second google is all that it takes..

From 2014 to 2019, Tesla lost approximately $5.662 billion
From 2020 to Q1 2022, Tesla made a profit of $11.281 billion.


2014………-294 million loss
2015…..….-889 million loss
2016………-679 million loss
2017..…..-1.962 million loss
2018………-976 million loss
2019………-862 million loss
2020….…+762 million loss
2021………$5.519 billion profit
2022 Q1…..$5 billion profit
 

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Tesla makes a lot more than automobiles. However, Space X is a much more Valuable company in my estimation. Space X is on track to surpass all launches by all entities last year, and it’s not even half way through the year.
No one is competitive with them when it comes to cost per launch.
 

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Thanks.
Model S came out in 2012 (late 2011 I believe), and the company dates to 2003.
Missing some years above.
This is why I won't pay too much attention to my Lucid or Rivian stock unti lthe 2030s.
I don't expect them to make money before then.
 

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So Rivian made 1,227 vehicles in Q1 2022, made a net loss of $1.6 billions = $1.3 millions loss on the roof of every Rivian vehicle it delivered in Q1 wow......
So if they raised the price of each truck by $1,300,000 they would have broke-even?

This is bad math, they lost $414,000,000 the year prior not making/selling one vehicle.


You’ll remember that Tesla only started making big profits on its vehicle sales once Musk increased the price, Cost Of Goods Sold price is $36k, average sale price of high volume 3/Y is currently around $9K above that but prior to 2021 it was practically break even.
About the time they started selling $10,000 FSD vaporware?
 
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...and an entirely separate company.
True, But it speaks to how these Musk companies get over the hump of near bankruptcy. Musk hunkers down and tries to solve all the engineering problems with his team, like he did for Model 3, and is doing for StarShip.

Rivian leadership needs to hunker down and get product in larger quantities out to close that profit gap by generating more Revenue. Right now, the OEM's are coming right at them, with a lot more capital, more experience and some of them far more superior technology and engineering muscle. For Rivian, the writing is on the wall.

Think of it this way, if Lockheed or Northrop were to enter Space X space, it would not be long before Space X faced real competition, because, just like GM, these are companies with significant engineering resources and ability to sort of engineering problems fast.

Rivian has non of that and its no Tesla.
 
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