[HoosierRon]

Not so long ago, diesel fuel used to be 20-30 cents cheaper per gallon. Diesel engines got 30% better mileage. Put those together, and diesels seemed like an obvious answer to the current energy crunch.

But now we have this news. The average price of diesel in California is $5.02. The average price of gasoline in California is $4.09. That makes diesel 23% more expensive.

Now consider that it costs a lot more to build a diesel. (I note that Mercedes charges only $1,000 more for an E-class diesel, but I doubt that that is its actual cost.) The money spent on a diesel could be spent either on a BAS+ system or a 2 mode system. If either of these alternatives is used, the efficiency advantage of a diesel (35% in the E-class) will be substantially or entirely lost. More to the point, it will be less than the 23% premium you are paying for the fuel.

Put all of that together, and it would appear that diesels are economically less efficient than viable alternatives. This begs the question: why are Toyota and GM both rushing 4.5L diesel V-8s to market?

 

[Ming]

Good question, HoosierRon, and the answer for me is yes - but perhaps just because I'm considering the bigger picture, not just one trim of truck vs. another big truck.

To answer your question specifically, why not just keep improving on the Silverado Hybrid incrementally instead?

What we should also be asking is, if GM needs a diesel truck, why are they not bragging about bringing us something akin to the Brazilian 4-cyl. Diesel S-10? An efficient yet great-for-towing next gen Colorado/Canyon?

Where are the small and efficient trucks that GM was supposed to be working with GM do Brasil on?

How can countries - even expansive ones - around the world manage to get things done with trucks even smaller - like the Suzuki Carry, Renault Logan Pickup, or Daewoo Labo, and GM and Toyota USA think all we need are more of these giant diesel personal vehicles with the bull bars (to sometimes commute to desk jobs in) despite a painful jump in fuel prices?

Not every Texan has a stubborn "I'll drive as big a truck as I can until I'm forced out of house and home by fuel prices" mentality.

 

[PMC the 1st]

Good question, HoosierRon,
To answer your question specifically, why not just keep improving on the Silverado Hybrid incrementally instead?

Where are the small and efficient trucks that GM was supposed to be working with GM do Brasil on?

How can countries - even expansive ones - around the world manage to get things done with trucks even smaller - like the Suzuki Carry, Renault Logan Pickup, or Daewoo Labo, and GM and Toyota USA think all we need are more of these giant diesel personal vehicles with the bull bars (to sometimes commute to desk jobs in) despite a painful jump in fuel prices?

The reason why countries go with smaller trucks is because those trucks are always used to a parctical end. In our country, they're either used for practical purposes or for dominance and presence (oftentimes for both).
Since small trucks don't have the 'presence' of big trucks, they won't sell here. They'll sell, but for the same reasons why the Chevy S-10 or Ford Ranger sells.
Your solution is the best: Bring on the hybrid drivetrains. GM is doing the right thing by making the hybrid drivetrain 'covert' and hidden in their trucks (small letters that say 'Hybrid; no goofy driver interfaces except on the fully optioned truck, etc). After all, what ******* would want to be associated with tree-huggers? But the price of gas is forcing the ******* to seek fuel-saving alternatives.

 

[agman25]

There is no good reason for diesel to be more expensive. It's made from the same crude as gas and does not cost any more to refine. In the long term diesel prices will sync with gas prices.

 

[baloo]

I don't think they're unwanted.

Concerning diesel prices, the demand for diesel fuel (particularly in the US) is not as elastic as gasoline demand, primarily because businesses like Fedex don't have the option to drive less or carpool and because transportation costs for products are not very significant. Basically they charge so much for diesel because they can. However, I don't think this situation will last forever, because diesel refining capacity currently makes for a very interesting investment due to the high profits. When capacity is increased, diesel prices will probably fall closer to where they should be.


As far as diesel engines go, they're some 30-40% more efficient than comparable gassers, and they can still be paired with BAS+ or other hybrid systems. More importantly though, they don't necessarily need fossil fuels. Considering the current oil situation, an engine that can run on vegetable oils or other "renewable" fuels without much trouble is probably rather attractive for manufacturers.

 

[WishIhadatruck]

I think the 4.5L diesel will still be popular for 1/2 ton trucks for people that actually use the towing capacity of the truck. The 2-mode truck only tows about 6k lbs and the diesel version will probably be capable of about 10k since I would expect it won't be any less than the current top 1/2 tons and weight capacity will keep it from going much if any higher. I think a much smaller diesel would make even more sense. Mercedes is using its diesel (only a 3.0L) in pretty big vehicles with good success paired to the 7-speed auto. Great mileage and good performance. Perhaps GM should consider the 2.9L V6 for full size trucks as well.

I think diesel prices is a big concern going forward. The whole industry is set up for making a certain percentage of gas to diesel from crude oil and if the customer base makes a drastic switch then they will struggle to keep up with diesel demand and the price gap could get worse.

 

[big swede]

There is no good reason for diesel to be more expensive. It's made from the same crude as gas and does not cost any more to refine. In the long term diesel prices will sync with gas prices.

Actually there are tons of reasons why diesel is higher and most of those reasons point to the gap becoming larger and larger over the course of a year.

 

[member12]

There is no good reason for diesel to be more expensive. It's made from the same crude as gas and does not cost any more to refine. In the long term diesel prices will sync with gas prices.

You own it?

Then it was brought to you by a diesel truck.

Until America switches to trains and gets out of the cross country trucking BS...diesel is going to cost more.

 

[psece]

I don't think they are blowing millions. I don't care if it is a hybrid, you put a load in the bed or tow anything the mileage on the gas engine hybrid will be much worst than a diesel. Think of all the businesses that use light trucks and actually use them to carry or tow daily. A hybrid will have diminishing returns in that scenario. Just because GM says its hybrid can tow doesn't mean it can do it efficiently. A diesel is much more efficient under load and they will sell them!

 

[psece]

You own it?

Then it was brought to you by a diesel truck.

Until America switches to trains and gets out of the cross country trucking BS...diesel is going to cost more.

Maybe when the railways owned millions of miles of tracks they could have but not now. Could you imagine the cost of buying all the land for tracks to replace what the 18 wheelers do now?

 

[agman25]

You own it?

Then it was brought to you by a diesel truck.

Until America switches to trains and gets out of the cross country trucking BS...diesel is going to cost more.

Cross country trucking is not BS. Just as the car gives you the freedom to live where you want to and choose where you want to work, trucks give people the freedom to build stuff in places that are the most advantageous and ship them in quantities and locations where they are needed. Not being tied to railroads or waiting for a railroad to be built before you can do anything is a very good thing.

Besides a lot of trains run on diesel.

 

[Michael_S]

Remember, for whatever reason it seems to take automakers many years to introduce new powertrains.

I'm sure the diesel pickup engines were started back when diesel was still cheaper than gas, and by this point GM, Ford, and Toyota already have hundreds of millions or billions already invested in them.

 

[Smaart Aas Saabr]

You own it?

Then it was brought to you by a diesel truck.

Until America switches to trains and gets out of the cross country trucking BS...diesel is going to cost more.

What happened to the diesel recently was a double punch of the restrictions on sulfur content and a very cold winter in most of the world (thus burning lots of heating oil (same thing) and diesel for snow equipment) Also taxes on diesel in US have gone up notably.

 

[Smaart Aas Saabr]

Cross country trucking is not BS. Just as the car gives you the freedom to live where you want to and choose where you want to work, trucks give people the freedom to build stuff in places that are the most advantageous and ship them in quantities and locations where they are needed. Not being tied to railroads or waiting for a railroad to be built before you can do anything is a very good thing.

Besides a lot of trains run on diesel.

no... ALL trains run on diesel

train is usually a goodly bit more efficient than truck mostly because it just keeps going and going until it gets there instead of stop/go/stop like truck. But truck is often cheaper because when you do with trains, you still need a truck to get from the rail yards to the business.

 

[E. Haskell]

Remember, for whatever reason it seems to take automakers many years to introduce new powertrains.

I'm sure the diesel pickup engines were started back when diesel was still cheaper than gas, and by this point GM, Ford, and Toyota already have hundreds of millions or billions already invested in them.

That's what I was going to say. 2 years ago everybody was begging GM to bring out new diesels and GM probably started working on them around that time. Do we expect GM to just cancel them now?

 

[logansowner]

A 5 year development plan based on the current time is what got GM into a mess in the first place. You have to think about the future, and this fuel spike will not last forever.

 

[logansowner]

You own it?

Then it was brought to you by a diesel truck.

Until America switches to trains and gets out of the cross country trucking BS...diesel is going to cost more.

Who's going to pay for land that has been bought for homes in the last 120 years? This isn't 1850, you can't build a railroad wherever you please anymore.

And did they start trucking more in the last year, because i remember diesel for my tractor sure as hell didn't cost what it does now a year ago.

 

[PMC the 1st]

I don't think they're unwanted.

As far as diesel engines go, they're some 30-40% more efficient than comparable gassers, and they can still be paired with BAS+ or other hybrid systems. More importantly though, they don't necessarily need fossil fuels. Considering the current oil situation, an engine that can run on vegetable oils or other "renewable" fuels without much trouble is probably rather attractive for manufacturers.

I'll agree with this especially what I put in bold. However, there's always the 'clean air' problem with diesel. Car and Driver, pumping diesel engines like the stock scammer pumps and dumps a penny stock, ignores the particulate side of things.

 

[AMERICA 123]

This begs the question: why are Toyota and GM both rushing 4.5L diesel V-8s to market?

To make money - and sell more volume.

Press Release DIESELS SET TO OUT-STRIP HYBRIDS IN ACCELERATING US GROWTH Release date: 24 May 2007

Diesel already dominates in Europe. The conditions may now be right for a big acceleration in diesel sales in the North American market.
Ricardo forecasts that combined diesel and hybrid gasoline will represent 15 per cent of the US light vehicle market by 2012, with sales of diesels outstripping gasoline hybrids by 1.5 million units versus 1.2 million.

Lower costs.

At present, hybrid gasoline technology appears to be the preferred route in the US, not least due to its attraction as a visible badge of green awareness amongst higher income purchasers. Many OEMs plan to launch hybrid products in the next few years, but the report highlights that this technology faces substantial manufacturing cost penalties which are unlikely to be eroded even in mass production.

Diesel has a clear cost advantage over hybrid, even when fitted with the type of complex exhaust after-treatment technologies necessary to meet future, more stringent emissions regulations.

Diesel is more cost competitive Despite some clear advantages for hybrids, we are ultimately more bullish on diesel for one simple reason: cost.

Hybrid powertrains ultimately cost more than diesels, and we do not believe the cost penalty of hybrid will change dramatically even with big increases in production volumes.

It is complex to compare the cost penalty of a modern ‘clean’ diesel engine with a conventional gasoline engine and with a hybrid powertrain – there are differences in size, ‘driveability’ and technical complexity.

Diesel and hybrids offer similar fuel efficiency: hybrids may be less effective in ‘real world driving’ than claimed.

But Ricardo’s detailed analysis indicates that the diesel cost penalty is substantially lower than that of hybrids – especially for larger vehicles.

Based on Ricardo analysis,
UBS estimates that for a 4.0 litre V8 powertrain,

the cost of a conventional ‘bare’ gasoline engine without transmission and capable of US emissions compliance is approximately US$2,000.

The incremental cost of a ‘European diesel’, without complex exhaust aftertreatment, is US$1,000-2,000.

The incremental cost of a US compliant ‘clean diesel’, complete with exhaust aftertreatment, is US$3,000-4,000 (there are variations around this figure, based on the type of exhaust aftertreatment technologies chosen).

The incremental cost of a full hybrid (Toyota type – such as that fitted to the Lexus LX400h) is US$7,000-8,000.

To save at least 4,000.00$ per large vehicle.

These estimates imply that a US compliant diesel engine in a crossover or SUV will incur a cost penalty < less than > half that of a full hybrid (US$3,000 versus US$7,000).

For smaller vehicles, the cost penalty for both powertrain types will be lower, but diesel still has the upper hand. UBS estimates that for a conventional midsize passenger car (eg, Toyota Camry, VW Passat), the cost penalty for a diesel will be around US$2,000-3,000 and for a full hybrid around US$5,000.

Diesel becomes very attractive when you factor in real costs for both hybrid and diesel.

These numbers are from the first 1/2 0f 2007.

Current numbers favor diesel even more although expected costs for both are rising.

 

[MCGARRETT]

Everyone needs to look at the big picture, at least in regards to the GM 4.5 litre diesel, it's just not for trucks and just not for the US market, it fits pretty much where ever a LS engine will fit. It fits is Zeta cars, Sigma cars, Hummers, Escalades, Silverados, etc, everyone get the picture?

What would Cadillac use to market a diesel V8 car or SUV in Europe? I expect that the next generation DTS/STS replacement will be available in Europe and it will have this engine under the hood, at least as an option.