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There may not be a very good selection left by then - car makers aren't going to suddenly switch - they'll changeover at the end of a platform cycle BEFORE 2035
Yeah that's the way it will be but I think the point he was making is he will stockpile ICE vehicles so he isn't forced to buy an EV
 

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There may not be a very good selection left by then - car makers aren't going to suddenly switch - they'll changeover at the end of a platform cycle BEFORE 2035
Yeah that's the way it will be but I think the point he was making is he will stockpile ICE vehicles so he isn't forced to buy an EV
By then, Clarkson will be roughly 75 years old, he may not even be able to drive anymore

It would be dangerously inaccurate to place 2020 limitations on BEVs that will be available by 2035, lithium will probably be gone and we could see 750km to 1,000 km range.

What we can hope for in places like Australia is that most of the people live on the costal area and city areas, a lot of those people could convert to BEVs without too much pain and suffering, those that need to stay with ICE would be a minority along with commercial certain rural and vehicles.

We often speak in absolutes when what we mean is something short of total change
 

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...

We often speak in absolutes when what we mean is something short of total change
Hopefully the range issues will be sorted out. The real issue isn't the day to day when you know where you're going, and how much fuel you need. It's the unplanned instance, when you've spent your range and your kids head butts the corner of the table/elderly parent feels ill etc. It's the unplanned travel that causes the problem.
 

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We often speak in absolutes when what we mean is something short of total change
It's sort of ironic you point that out really. Somehow a conversation that started out about Holden's future - and effectively as what could be a niche player - has somehow morphed into a black and what dissertation on the future of the industry and EV's.

The reality is these changes are going to happen over years - both here and overseas.

Battery development is key to eliminating range anxiety - but there are developments underway right now that will make current tech old very quickly.

The current number of countries planning to BAN ICE's is at least 9 as of right now. BAN. That alone will drives platform diversity. I don't think anyone here is suggestion ICE's aren't going to be around in some parts of the world for a long time yet, but what it does mean is that across every major manufacturer there will be choice - that's a certainty. And with that choice comes consumer demand for both high and low line vehicles. And zero compromise. That's just the God given right consumers somehow have.

The issue's of infrastructure, range and price will vary from location to location. And under the current Govt we will lag a long way behind some other countries. But that could all change at the next election you just wouldn't know.

In 10 years time - I'd almost bet 5 - this conversation will look like the discussion about whether or not Model T's should come in a colour other than black - totally redundant. The impetus to EV's from every level of the car industry - consumer, manufacturer and investor is unstoppable.

The only question is who gets it right the fastest, the most economically and with least compromise. GM's decision to go in boots and all gives it scale few others will have in the short term to get those things right.

And Holden (to go full circle) just might benefit from that.
 

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Battery tech has changed lots over the last decade

I'm going to look at just the camper and dual battery scene in 4x4's and caravanning

Not that long ago it was unheard of the kind of things you can get at such a cheap price

Batteries are still a few hundred to a grand a pop but solar is now as cheap as $90 to give you enough amps to charge a 120 AH battery and keep your beers cold for weeks on end

I recently put a 110watt panel on the roof of my Colorado and run a 97AH battery keeping my 45 litre fridge running

I ran it from dec 28 until Feb 6 and the battery never got below 80% in temps up to 47 deg c

If I told you that 10 years ago I could do all that for less than a grand you would have laughed at me
 

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Battery development is key to eliminating range anxiety - but there are developments underway right now that will make current tech old very quickly.

GM's decision to go in boots and all gives it scale few others will have in the short term to get those things right.
Range anxiety will be eliminated by a combination of improving battery range AND improving recharge time although the latter also involves improving the infrastructure to eliminate queing time for a charger.

GM will gain over certain other manufacturers by abandoning hybrids and going all out for full electric - but it's already behind the leaders.

It's now clear that full hybrid was a wrong path to chose, not just GM but others too, as their low consumption under test isn't replicated in real world driving - mild hybrids are a better way forward as they can be quickly engineered into existing ICE models and help cut corporate emissions as well as real world emissions.
 

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Toyota have already reaped the rewards of the mild hybrid strategy. One of the earliest adopters is also the one that makes the biggest impact. #ToyotaHybridFamily The main reason is that they can sell in advance of infrastructure. I can't see how the full electric strategy is the wiser option.
Just try to order a Hybrid RAV4 right now (which is also Australia's highest selling SUV). You have zero chance of getting one in less than 3 months.
 

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Hybrids are a much better option for Australia now and into the foreseeable future, it will be a long time before we have suitable infrastructure to support large scale usage of EVs. I'm sure our government will attempt to get it going but much like the NBN they will screw it up
 

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We often speak in absolutes when what we mean is something short of total change
It's sort of ironic you point that out really. Somehow a conversation that started out about Holden's future - and effectively as what could be a niche player - has somehow morphed into a black and what dissertation on the future of the industry and EV's.

The reality is these changes are going to happen over years - both here and overseas.

Battery development is key to eliminating range anxiety - but there are developments underway right now that will make current tech old very quickly.

The current number of countries planning to BAN ICE's is at least 9 as of right now. BAN. That alone will drives platform diversity. I don't think anyone here is suggestion ICE's aren't going to be around in some parts of the world for a long time yet, but what it does mean is that across every major manufacturer there will be choice - that's a certainty. And with that choice comes consumer demand for both high and low line vehicles. And zero compromise. That's just the God given right consumers somehow have.

The issue's of infrastructure, range and price will vary from location to location. And under the current Govt we will lag a long way behind some other countries. But that could all change at the next election you just wouldn't know.

In 10 years time - I'd almost bet 5 - this conversation will look like the discussion about whether or not Model T's should come in a colour other than black - totally redundant.
And that’s where I call (bullsh**t) extremely optimistic
There is no way market penetration of BEVs will be all that deep in five years let alone ten.
I agree that it's going to take time for BEVs to come to Australia but things like this do not
necessarily advance the way we expect, the big killer for us is the cost of BEVs , that extra
premium piled on top of a regular ICE, very few people will pay what amounts to double up
front for a BEV and then have to fork out for electricity. The only way BEVs advance is by
governments forcing people to buy electric vehicles, I guess that the new world order coming...... But really, BEVs will be available for the cake eaters while the rest of us wait
for the price to a much less wallet raping level.

We also need to have a more political neutral debate in this country about our changing energy needs and how we proceed with guaranteeing power supply even before we discuss hundreds of thousands of electric cars plugging in. Were going to be in real trouble when our coal fired plants get old and start to fail more regularly.
 

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And that’s where I call (bullsh**t) extremely optimistic
There is no way market penetration of BEVs will be all that deep in five years let alone ten.
I agree that it's going to take time for BEVs to come to Australia but things like this do not
necessarily advance the way we expect, the big killer for us is the cost of BEVs , that extra
premium piled on top of a regular ICE, very few people will pay what amounts to double up
front for a BEV and then have to fork out for electricity. The only way BEVs advance is by
governments forcing people to buy electric vehicles, I guess that the new world order coming...... But really, BEVs will be available for the cake eaters while the rest of us wait
for the price to a much less wallet raping level.

We also need to have a more political neutral debate in this country about our changing energy needs and how we proceed with guaranteeing power supply even before we discuss hundreds of thousands of electric cars plugging in. Were going to be in real trouble when our coal fired plants get old and start to fail more regularly.
Geez you read what you want to read.

What I said was, if in 5 years time every major manufacturer doesn't have an EV in their range I'll stand rooted. In fact here's a list right now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_cars_currently_available

Nowhere did I suggest the market would be overrun with EV's sales in 5 years. What I said was that the discussion about EV's being mainstream , available and being pushed by every level of the industry would be redundant simply because by then it will have already happened.

And if you think that EV's will perpetually be beyond the price range of ICE you are kidding yourself. Besides the cost of batteries, EV's will be cheaper and less complex to build every day of the week. Why do you think it's happening??? Manufacturers aren't doing this to be environmentally friendly. They're doing it to make money. Right now it's niche so they charge a premium. But that novelty will die sooner rather than later.

Nowhere does major infrastructure come first in any major change. Roads, bridges, schools, hospitals, phone towers, NBN, hell service stations all come along AFTER demand dictates it. The market WILL NOT wait for infrastructure. The vast majority of charging will be at home, in off peak power.

Clearly you don't agree with EV's and thats fine. And really I'm yet to be convinced completely as well.

But you need to take your blinkers off. I'm far from greenie but if you think there won't be alternatives to both coal in an industry already driven by private investment in renewables (and when every major Australian financial institution has gotten rid of it's coal investments, and America's are doing the same), or viable alternatives to ICE, you are mistaken.

As much as these changes are "green" they are driven by businesses wanting to make money - like GM. Shareholding, profit driven. And those business are leaving convention behind. We all know the power of enterprise - it gets what it wants. The era of big oil and big coal is coming to an end.

The only real debate is one where you accept the timing of EV's being "mainstream". Is it 20% market share? 25%? 50%? I don't know the timing but I do know change is coming.
 

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View attachment 42097

Thanks Chinamonty for that... I'm actually surprised to be honest
I have to agree, that is an impressive accomplishment, one that gives me hope of change.

Also, an olive branch to you,
I hope and pray that you are right, I just think we're gonna have to crack the whip with politicians
to get change happening quicker. 50% of our power from renewables is the minimum we should
be achieving consistently, I know we touch that now but they need to do more.

We need to create an environment where EVs are embraced, not punished by premiums and taxes.
And if Holden ever decided to reinvent themselves as a BEV company, then why not support them
with government incentives and rebates to customers buying them.
 

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And if Holden ever decided to reinvent themselves as a BEV company, then why not support them
with government incentives and rebates to customers buying them.
Sounds like Greenie Socialism to me..
 

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And if Holden ever decided to reinvent themselves as a BEV company, then why not support them
with government incentives and rebates to customers buying them.
Sounds like Greenie Socialism to me..
Is that you Rupert? (Murdoch)
The other thought I had was what if ICEs were replaced by fuel cells, that would give lots of folks
The same range as today's vehicles with zero incentives
 

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Sounds like Greenie Socialism to me..
Any reason why you would just categorise something with a political affiliation rather than assessing it on merit?

Some parts of socialism work. Some part of capitalism work. The adjustment of the equilibrium is mostly down to marketing, not merit.
The fossil fuel industry has already been optimised to such a level that it stymies growth. The development and implementation of renewables (irrespective of your or my stance with respect to human influence on climate change) is a freakin gold mine, but requires a kick in the ass to get running. The country would benefit from the growth. When you invest, and get a return (such as a GDP bump), that's good business. Just because the beneficiaries are citizens, doesn't make it socialism. Otherwise you could technically call Mining a socialist industry.
 

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Yeah you are right Mick. Maybe some people should go and live in places like China (when the virus is under control of course) and they would find it very different to what they imagine. China picks and chooses what parts of Communism/Socialism/Capitalism suits it. Talking of gold mines - it is estimated that approx 70,000 solar panels will be brought in to use each hour for the next 5 years.
 
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