[BlackGTP]

Here's How Elon Musk Gets Tesla to 500,000 Cars a Year by 2020
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/here-s-how-elon-musk-takes-tesla-to-500-000-cars-in-five-years?cmpid=BBD081015_BIZ
Bloomberg.com
By Tom Randall
August 10, 2015

For once, Elon Musk may be right on schedule

Tesla's $31 billion stock value is built on a dream—that a startup might somehow be able to produce a half-million all-electric cars per year by 2020. But a steady drip of production delays and lowered sales forecasts have caused some to question whether his 500,000-car goal is still possible, if it ever was. Here are three charts that show reason for both skepticism and hope.

Last week Tesla backed off its full-year production forecast by about 5,000 deliveries. The 2016 forecast was also nudged down to a weekly average rate between 1,600 and 1,800—down from a previous target of 2,000. Missed deadlines are nothing new for Musk and his car company. The Model X SUV, once promised for 2014, won't be released until this September; the mass market Model 3 is currently slated for late 2017.

Article continues at link

 

[BlackGTP]

Interesting analogy with Ford's early days. The cards are definitely stacked against Tesla, but I hope they make it!

 

[ZR2BlaZeR2]

Interesting analogy with Ford's early days. The cards are definitely stacked against Tesla, but I hope they make it!

Well said. I really hope they make it as well. I don't understand why some (as I'm sure we'll see below) want this American company to die.

There's a lot of complaining in general that we don't make anything anymore. That we don't innovate anymore. That we're fat, dumb and lazy. And we finger-point. Then Musk comes along and actually tries and we bash him for personal and political reasons.

 

[mchicha]

I want Tesla to live, but I want them to stuff some V8's in their cars

 

[balthazar]

The Ford comparison is interesting… but 'Tesla' is a company and the 'Ford Model T' is a model. T came out in '08, but FoMoCo had a bunch of models prior to/ since starting in '03 (which was his 3rd auto company). Ford also 'put America on wheels' when there was very little in the way of price competition and steadily lowered his price over the course of the T's production. The Model S is the plaything of the wealthy at it's price tag, and the upcoming model X is supposed to be in the same price range. It's a serious question -regardless of the means of propulsion- weather or not there's THAT kind of volume to be had at Tesla's lofty price range. So far the chart is looking good… but the trajectory is far from firm.

 

[SKH]

500,000 cars in a little over 4 years from now? Someone is delusional.

 

[mchicha]

500,000 cars in a little over 4 years from now? Someone is delusional.

If this guy had made dealers his friends, he would sell each and everyone he can build at a profit.

 

[Dequindre]

Well said. I really hope they make it as well. I don't understand why some (as I'm sure we'll see below) want this American company to die.

There's a lot of complaining in general that we don't make anything anymore. That we don't innovate anymore. That we're fat, dumb and lazy. And we finger-point. Then Musk comes along and actually tries and we bash him for personal and political reasons.

It's not that people WANT to see them fail, but Tesla has not proven that it is a sustainable, self-sufficient business. The U.S. government is the only reason Tesla is still alive. You know that and I know that. The government can't hold their hand forever, and I hope they don't.

 

[Rock Brocaine]

If this guy had made dealers his friends, he would sell each and everyone he can build at a profit.

I also heard if you sell your soul to the devil, you live pretty good until you die.

 

[Tone]

Ford got to its number by steadily lowering the price of the Model T while maintaining profits by reducing costs through improved production techniques. That's the path for Tesla, but whether or not they can reduce their biggest cost -- batteries -- fast enough remains to be seen. I hope they succeed!

 

[mchicha]

I also heard if you sell your soul to the devil, you live pretty good until you die.

Dealers are not a moral equivalent to the 'devil'.

 

[ZR2BlaZeR2]

It's not that people WANT to see them fail, but Tesla has not proven that it is a sustainable, self-sufficient business. The U.S. government is the only reason Tesla is still alive. You know that and I know that. The government can't hold their hand forever, and I hope they don't.

I wouldn't say the ONLY reason. But I see your point. There are obviously plenty of investors that buy what Musk is selling. The Model III will be the car (and hopefully SUV) that spreads the development dollars or the six-figure cars and makes them truly profitable.

Tesla needs that car yesterday or at least while the established auto industry is still screwing around with clown cars. I'll be online ordering ordering one with AWD while the sheep go to the devil for a Dolt.

 

[posaune]

I wouldn't say the ONLY reason. But I see your point. There are obviously plenty of investors that buy what Musk is selling. The Model III will be the car (and hopefully SUV) that spreads the development dollars or the six-figure cars and makes them truly profitable.

Tesla needs that car yesterday or at least while the established auto industry is still screwing around with clown cars. I'll be online ordering ordering one with AWD while the sheep go to the devil for a Dolt.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Bolt made it to market before the Model III. Hopefully they can keep to the 2017 release time frame for the Model III an not suffer delays that have plagued the Model X.

 

[eaton53]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Bolt made it to market before the Model III. Hopefully they can keep to the 2017 release time frame for the Model III an not suffer delays that have plagued the Model X.

If Tesla's actually losing $4K per car on a $100K car, we may never see the Model III.
Or more likely it gets made and the price is much higher than expected.

 

[Ambalanche]

I like Tesla and all and wish them well, but I'm a little tired of the Automotive media giving them a pass on shortcomings and being their rah rah cheerleaders! Bias Much?!

 

[CJH]

If this guy had made dealers his friends, he would sell each and everyone he can build at a profit.

So he takes a bigger loss on each car he sells? He has already cut out the middle man, he sure as heck doesn't need them to sell a few thousand vehicles a month. I actually prefer his sales model over the long haul, its just a tough road ahead, hopefully they have enough cash to make it. Its not going to be cheap to launch two more vehicles.

Ford got to its number by steadily lowering the price of the Model T while maintaining profits by reducing costs through improved production techniques. That's the path for Tesla, but whether or not they can reduce their biggest cost -- batteries -- fast enough remains to be seen. I hope they succeed!

Bingo. They brought in a battery specialist a month or two ago, just for that reason. How much that will help, no one knows, but they haven't been able to do it yet. Plus all of the competition, including outside suppliers, is doing the same thing.

 

[KingElvis]

The Ford comparison is interesting… but 'Tesla' is a company and the 'Ford Model T' is a model. T came out in '08, but FoMoCo had a bunch of models prior to/ since starting in '03 (which was his 3rd auto company). Ford also 'put America on wheels' when there was very little in the way of price competition and steadily lowered his price over the course of the T's production. The Model S is the plaything of the wealthy at it's price tag, and the upcoming model X is supposed to be in the same price range. It's a serious question -regardless of the means of propulsion- weather or not there's THAT kind of volume to be had at Tesla's lofty price range. So far the chart is looking good… but the trajectory is far from firm.

Very good point. They are very much at opposite ends of the price spectrum and you could say if anything that the Tesla is a regression to an earlier stage when cars were only intended for the super wealthy.

At the time the Ford debuted (it was never called 't' at the time it was made) propulsion systems were very much in the air - steam and electric were in some ways more pragmatic at that point. Henry Ford himself thought the way to go was making corn ethanol. But the 't' itself led to gasoline becoming ubiquitous because the Ford was ubiquitous.

 

[Butz]

If you are losing on every sale maybe you should aim for less.

 

[CaptainDan]

Ford got to its number by steadily lowering the price of the Model T while maintaining profits by reducing costs through improved production techniques. That's the path for Tesla, but whether or not they can reduce their biggest cost -- batteries -- fast enough remains to be seen. I hope they succeed!

If Tesla can reduce the cost of the batteries they purchase, then so can every competitor. And Tesla just hasn't got much hope of competing with any of the established automakers. Let's face it, Tesla is a low tech, easy to produce car. Any automaker could build such a car for much less than Tesla can.

Why don't they? They see no profit in it. And Tesla has pretty much proved them right. But if (by some unforeseen miracle) Tesla can find a way to make their cars profitable, every other automaker on the planet will be jumping right in, and easily undercutting Tesla on price and at higher quality.

Tesla sells the few cars they do, at a loss, because nobody is competing with them. If Tesla thinks they can jump into the mainstream, HIGHLY competitive 3-series market, well....good luck with that.

 

[BlackGTP]

It's not that people WANT to see them fail, but Tesla has not proven that it is a sustainable, self-sufficient business. The U.S. government is the only reason Tesla is still alive. You know that and I know that. The government can't hold their hand forever, and I hope they don't.

But is Tesla any different than any startup? Meaning funding from multiple sources (including government) and investor money in the hopes of turning a profit someday? Silicon Valley especially seems to be a bastion for a lot of $$ but no profits....