[09W]

We think of GM body on frame, live rear axle drum braked cars of that time as quite primitive.

About 6 years ago a buddy had a '66 S60S pass thru his hands.
I stopped in to visit and saw it - triple black, not restored, not perfect, but clean.
It had plates, so I said, can I go down the street with it and he said sure. His shop was on a side street, backed by a residential section of a small city.

Apparently... I went to another plane of existence or something, because my phone jolted me back to reality; 'Where are you- that's not registered or insured!'
It was 20-25 minutes later, I was a handful of miles away, driving, floating on a cloud of sensory deprivation.
That was the best riding car I can think I ever drove.

And I say that having owned 23 vehicles with the average model year of 1969.

 

[bmwboy2007]

In yet another indicator of Cadillac's ongoing brand rehabilitation, only BMW outpaced Cadillac in consideration by buyers. Inherent value assigned to the brand appears to be eternal, in spite of GM's clumsy and bungling mismanagement over several decades. In first quarter 2022, Cadillac leap frogged AUDI, Tesla, Benz and Lexus.

 

[mbukukanyau]

In yet another indicator of Cadillac's ongoing brand rehabilitation, only BMW outpaced Cadillac in consideration by buyers. Inherent value assigned to the brand appears to be eternal, in spite of GM's clumsy and bungling mismanagement over several decades. In first quarter 2022, Cadillac leap frogged AUDI, Tesla, Benz and Lexus.

View attachment 66159 View attachment 66160

This

 

[nota2]

This

‘Consideration by buyers’ has a catchy spin to it, that almost convincing spin of success

However for actual sales, this

 

[09W]

^ Chart also shows acura, audi, infiniti, jag, land rover, lexus, Lincoln, mercedes, porsche, and volvo seeing steep dives in volume. More at play than simply product mix / production abilities?

 

[mgescuro]

^ Chart also shows acura, audi, infiniti, jag, land rover, lexus, Lincoln, mercedes, porsche, and volvo seeing steep dives in volume. More at play than simply product mix / production abilities?

It's a question of product mix, I think. Plus the overall lack of product across the board that is affecting brands.
The pandemic really has twisted car lineups and cycles.

C-Class is over a year late coming to the US.
Porsche is seeing 9-12 month wait lists for their cars. LR has converted lines to produce other cars, reducing production of others. Jaguar has a very old lineup and is really just 1 model at this stage.
Audi availability is limited on certain models. Some ended up at the bottom of the ocean. Etc.

Factor in changes to the economy and inflation and an increasing desire by customers to go EV.... and you have industry upheaval.

 

[bmwboy2007]

It's a question of product mix, I think. Plus the overall lack of product across the board that is affecting brands.
The pandemic really has twisted car lineups and cycles.

C-Class is over a year late coming to the US.
Porsche is seeing 9-12 month wait lists for their cars. LR has converted lines to produce other cars, reducing production of others. Jaguar has a very old lineup and is really just 1 model at this stage.
Audi availability is limited on certain models. Some ended up at the bottom of the ocean. Etc.

Factor in changes to the economy and inflation and an increasing desire by customers to go EV.... and you have industry upheaval.

Wouldn't you agree this phenomenon is an artificial contortion ? It seems to me that once some sort of balance is restored, things should sort themselves out. However, I saw one headline suggest that the disrupted supply chain may never return to the status quo ante. That the prolblems may be so endemic that a meaningful return is beyond anyone's grasp right now.

Factory website build pages are full of disclaimers, advisories and notices, pointing out the limited or nonexistent availability of various desirable options, notably Supercruise among many others. Customers have found it necessary to amend their thinking to a comfort level with 6 - 12 month delivery times on ordered vehicles. When you add electrification into the mix, it only creates a confusion level that makes evaluation of future purchases and leases complicated in the extreme, and problematic going forward.

 

[mgescuro]

Wouldn't you agree this phenomenon is an artificial contortion ? It seems to me that once some sort of balance is restored, things should sort themselves out. However, I saw one headline suggest that the disrupted supply chain may never return to the status quo ante. That the prolblems may be so endemic that a meaningful return is beyond anyone's grasp right now.

Factory website build pages are full of disclaimers, advisories and notices, pointing out the limited or nonexistent availability of various desirable options, notably Supercruise among many others. Customers have found it necessary to amend their thinking to a comfort level with 6 - 12 month delivery times on ordered vehicles. When you add electrification into the mix, it only creates a confusion level that makes evaluation of future purchases and leases complicated in the extreme, and problematic going forward.

Honestly? I think there's going to be a HBS case study on the effects of the pandemic on the auto industry in due time.

Everything is completely out of balance right now. Some of it has to do with the operational challenges with the supply chain. Some countries took the pandemic more seriously than others, so factories and suppliers up and down the supply chain were shut down or in a go-slow mode.

Parts of the supply chain, in order to regain stability, focused more on higher priority chips than others. So some industries lost out or got moved down the priority list. The auto industry, which relies/relied on older chips and custom ships based on older technology proved to be on the lower priority list. Few automakers were able to pivot and use a different chips.

And now you have an industry-wide pivot to EV away from ICE, on a 3-10 year schedule, depending on automaker.

What this does show is the vulnerability of the JIT production system.. But, theoretically, we've all know that this was a possibility. So, down the road, I think companies will start to rethink how the supply chain works for them and consider multiple suppliers when engineering their products. But... that can cause downstream effects when it comes to support and maintenance.

BUT... as a result of all of this... I think we're now seeing customers who were accustomed to going to a dealership, picking a car off the lot, discover the benefits of a custom car built to one's own specs. Everything is "delayed," so if you're gonna wait, might as well get the exact car you want. So, I think there's some movement towards Tesla's BTO model. It has the effect of reducing/streamlining inventories and supplies, reduces discounting too. Plus, manufacturers can streamline manufacturing more by customizing option packages.

So what was "balance" before may be quite different in the future.