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Good News aside, GM sales (units) were down 43% in the 4th quarter!? (at what point do we start worrying?)
- Good thing we don't have the monthly numbers, wouldn't want to misinterpret the one-month anomalies!


AND I can't help myself..............

1 HUMMER - ONE!?

🥴
Technically, no. But GM's PR dweebs can wordsmith a press release to mean anything. Or nothing at all.

The December 17 press release stated:



If you unhide row 6 in the spreadsheet, you'll find that GM delivered a grand total of five Brightdrop EV600 vehicles to customers in 2021. Combine that with the one Hummer EV delivered to a customer, and the phrase "deliveries of its first next-generation electric vehicles" is technically correct because the word "deliveries" refers to those six vehicles taken together, and because 6 > 1. 🤣
Kind of like a "WIN" with a 43% Decline. Is that the PR Dweeb's Job?
 

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For 4Q21, looks like Toyota was off -30.2% versus GM -42.9% in vehicles sold. For the year, Toyota +10% sales while GM dropped -12.9% sales.

Yes GM managed to sell a good number of high-$$ vehicles but that's a whole bunch of customers who didn't buy GM in 2021. Are they gone forever? How many can GM get back?


Looking forward to seeing Ford's numbers soon.
I think we only need to look at Toyota and how the tsunami disrupted their operations. Toyota temporarily lost a lot of market share, letting their competitors, including GM, produced some outstanding results. Once the Japanese makes got past the production issues their market shares rebounded.

Toyota is cleaning up right now, as the chip shortage eases I've no doubts that GM, Ford and all the other makes will regain their historical market share. Certainly will force some GM customers into trying the competition and they'll never come back to GM, just like what happened to Toyota in the tsunami.

I'm going with Wall Street - things will return to normal once the chip shortage eases.

Toyota seems to be the exception, I think it is best to gauge GM's performance against all the other makes that seem to have been unable to secure a better supply of chips. And then also look at what is being sold - I bet a high end Tahoe or Silverado uses a lot more chips than an Accord - so it may not be 1 for 1 which makes market share somewhat deceiving. But, with all that said, it would certainly be more than nice if GM had that Toyota magic and able to secure s supply of chips, GM and the rest of the industry needs to figure out what Toyota has done.** I'd much rather be saying GM is leading the industry, not the other way around.

**however, I assume in this situation there is a finite amount of chips, if all makes replicated Toyota's process then they'd still be in the same boat as they can't all have the chips they need.
 

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Ford are already ahead stealing all early pick-up EV buyer sales..

Ford will deliver a less than 30k F-150 Lightnings next year. In 3 years, those will be meaningless.

If GM announces a 400 mile EPA range Silverado EV tomorrow for less than $80k there will be a lot of Lightning Platinum reservation cancellations over the next couple of weeks.
 

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You are missing something.

I know someone who was due for one of the first Hummer deliveries.

He held off on delivery to take possession of the vehicle in tax year 2022. He is hoping that the government will restore or even improve the EV incentives allowable for the purchase of GM products (currently at $ 0.00). By taking delivery after December 31st, he in my opinion, has a pretty good shot at something (dependent of course on the qualification valuations involved).

Waiting just a few days for delivery, could possibly have a huge payoff...or not.
Government still in my view shouldn’t subsidize high-end luxury electric car sales. I bet if it comes back it has a cap of like 50 or 60 grand etc.
 

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Interesting year. Also note that this is likely the highest percentage of V8 vehicles GM sold since the mid 80s too. In addition to the highest percentage of BOF.

Funny the electric dream and utopian future is being paid for by chumps like me who desire BOF small block V8 machines. Basically 60 year old vehicle construction and that is what the consumers want… But GM/Ford are too busy out ‘greening’ each other for favor with the government and to ride on the coat tails of Elon/Tesla stock price.

Once GM kills these cash cows. Those folks like me won’t be supporting any electric dream or buy an electric blob… Until the wheels fall off of my ICE vehicles. I am predicting if this all goes the way I fear many folks will keep ‘fixing up’ gas vehicles. Oh and I am predict GM will introduce a ‘special’ 3/4 and 1 ton truck with a crew cab but the 5.8 foot/short box. That will dodge CAFE since HDs are EPA exempt. Then it will fit in garages too.

I am just praying for one more generation of SBC V8.
 
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Interesting year. Also note that this is likely the highest percentage of V8 vehicles GM sold since the mid 80s too. In addition to the highest percentage of BOF.
Interesting observation. Long live the BOF V8!! The greenies will be so pleased, yet... zero, zero, zero is on the horizon.
 
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Government still in my view shouldn’t subsidize high-end luxury electric car sales. I bet if it comes back it has a cap of like 50 or 60 grand etc.
I’m with you, should be capped at 50k or so. No need to subsidize the rich. But even better, I hope BBB, Stays DEAD.
 

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Technically, no. But GM's PR dweebs can wordsmith a press release to mean anything. Or nothing at all.

The December 17 press release stated:

If you unhide row 6 in the spreadsheet, you'll find that GM delivered a grand total of five Brightdrop EV600 vehicles to customers in 2021. Combine that with the one Hummer EV delivered to a customer, and the phrase "deliveries of its first next-generation electric vehicles" is technically correct because the word "deliveries" refers to those six vehicles taken together, and because 6 > 1. 🤣
Mr. Reuss said in the CNBC interview (I am paraphrasing here, but talking about the Hummer EV)
"We said they were going to start deliveries in the Fall of 2021 and we did that"

I think we only need to look at Toyota and how the tsunami disrupted their operations. Toyota temporarily lost a lot of market share, letting their competitors, including GM, produced some outstanding results. Once the Japanese makes got past the production issues their market shares rebounded.
I think we only need to look at GM and how (unit) sales were down 42.9% in Q4.


Toyota is cleaning up right now, as the chip shortage eases I've no doubts that GM, Ford and all the other makes will regain their historical market share. Certainly will force some GM customers into trying the competition and they'll never come back to GM, just like what happened to Toyota in the tsunami.
Ford will only be down single-digits, ~6% for the month/quarter/year; I don't think they've lost much market share.

But back to GM, something that is troubling; Investor Business Daily is reporting GM's inventory is up 55% vs Q3, if true, that sales drop is even more concerning.

I'm going with Wall Street - things will return to normal once the chip shortage eases.
Stock market is irrational right now, not a good indicator; example, yesturday $TSLA stock (market cap) went up $5,000,000 for every car they sold over industry estimates; that is equivalent to a neighbor kid making $50 on every cup of lemonade they sold for 50 cents.

Toyota seems to be the exception, I think it is best to gauge GM's performance against all the other makes that seem to have been unable to secure a better supply of chips. And then also look at what is being sold - I bet a high end Tahoe or Silverado uses a lot more chips than an Accord - so it may not be 1 for 1 which makes market share somewhat deceiving. But, with all that said, it would certainly be more than nice if GM had that Toyota magic and able to secure s supply of chips, GM and the rest of the industry needs to figure out what Toyota has done.** I'd much rather be saying GM is leading the industry, not the other way around.

**however, I assume in this situation there is a finite amount of chips, if all makes replicated Toyota's process then they'd still be in the same boat as they can't all have the chips they need.
Toyota is not the exception, GM is; the good news is GM is selling a crap-tom of really profitable vehicles and exceptionally low incentives, but record-selling BOF V8 trucks, is a weird flex for the company to claim the future EV leader.

Ford will deliver a less than 30k F-150 Lightnings next year. In 3 years, those will be meaningless.

If GM announces a 400 mile EPA range Silverado EV tomorrow for less than $80k there will be a lot of Lightning Platinum reservation cancellations over the next couple of weeks.
"Next Year" you mean this year, but I think they are shooting for a higher number than that now and factor in GM's only looking at 1,000 Edition 1 Hummer's, even if it was only 30K, that is 29K more than GM.
 

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Government still in my view shouldn’t subsidize high-end luxury electric car sales. I bet if it comes back it has a cap of like 50 or 60 grand etc.
The Government has subsidized the sales of expensive ICE vehicles for decades. Go strike-up a conversation with your favorite car salesman--or perhaps, your tax accountant. Learn something.
 

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The Government has subsidized the sales of expensive ICE vehicles for decades. Go strike-up a conversation with your favorite car salesman--or perhaps, your tax accountant. Learn something.
Elaborate
 

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The Government has subsidized the sales of expensive ICE vehicles for decades. Go strike-up a conversation with your favorite car salesman--or perhaps, your tax accountant. Learn something.
Really… I’d like to think I know something or as much as the average person… Anyhow the only thing I can think of is the GVW 6,100 pounds thing if you own a business you can write a vehicle of that size off. If you don’t own a business that can use a vehicle it does you no good.

Again, giving rich people a tax credit who buy expensive EV vehicles for personal use is not a good idea. If you want a $113,000 Hummer great… But don’t expect me to give you an incentive/tax credit. If it qualifies as a business vehicle with GVW rating fine write it off.
 

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Elaborate
Can’t wait to see what I learn on this topic. I am seriously curious aside of a business vehicle how else we are subsidizing ‘rich’ people who buy ICE vehicles.
 

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I’m with you, should be capped at 50k or so. No need to subsidize the rich. But even better, I hope BBB, Stays DEAD.
Yup. I could almost tolerate maybe 50K to 60K. I said almost but a 110K one, yeah no thanks.
 
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Ford will only be down single-digits, ~6% for the month/quarter/year; I don't think they've lost much market share.
If Ford is only down single digits in 4Q that would be an amazing performance considering Toyota was down -30%…let alone GM! Hyundai was down -15% 4Q too. The numbers will be out tomorrow, can’t wait.

 

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Interesting observation. Long live the BOF V8!! The greenies will be so pleased, yet... zero, zero, zero is on the horizon.
I will drink to that! Yup, just around the corner is the ‘green’ future where electric cars for everyone which will save the planet. End of sarcasm.
 
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Cadillac Escalade - 40 505. Highest sales Escalade ever had.
Well it is likely the truest sense of what a Cadillac is. A big, bold, beautiful, smooth, American black tie sort of automobile. The fact it is BOF with a V8 doesn’t hurt either. They stopped making great Cadillacs in 1992. Very good Cadillacs in 1996. Good Cadillacs in 2011 (death of the Northstar V8 in products only V8 was unless it was a CTS-V or Escalade).

Having said that the new BWs CT4 and CT5 rock. Talk about going out with a bang.
 

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Can’t wait to see what I learn on this topic. I am seriously curious aside of a business vehicle how else we are subsidizing ‘rich’ people who buy ICE vehicles.
Yeah a "tax deduction" turns into a "subsidy" when it's something "they" don't like...... I'm sure in some weird way we will learn that ICE vehicle sales tax, registration and gasoline tax is a "subsidy". Is that "Gas Guzzler" tax still out there? Another "subsidy", I'm sure!

If Ford is only down single digits in 4Q that would be an amazing performance considering Toyota was down -30%…let alone GM! Hyundai was down -15% 4Q too. The numbers will be out tomorrow, can’t wait.

We know Ford's October and November numbers; Ford was down 4% in October, and up 5.9% in November, December is estimated at being down 6%.
(and through November; Ford is only down 5.6% YTD)

With Covid blowing-up, who knows what happens next, I think this will pass quickly, but in the meantime........ maybe buy an extra package of toilet paper, if ya know what I mean.........
 

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"Next Year" you mean this year, but I think they are shooting for a higher number than that now and factor in GM's only looking at 1,000 Edition 1 Hummer's, even if it was only 30K, that is 29K more than GM.
Yes, forgot we are in 2022.

Ford will probably deliver under 15k Lightnings this year but just wanted to be safe and give myself some margin in my prediction. Again battery problem. Buy hey, maybe Ford found some spare GWh under some rocks in China.

Ford delivered twice as many Mach-e than GM delivered Bolts in 2021. In 3 years no one will remember or care. This doesn't give Ford a "first mover advantage."

GM will likely announce plans for battery factory 3 and 4 this year. When GM BEV production starts rolling in 2023 it will likely have and maintain a significant advantage over Ford. And be #2 in BEV sales for North America.

None of the foreign automakers have shown a serious commitment to mass produce BEVs in North America. VW Group, Hyundai-Kia, Volvo-Polestar, Toyota-Lexus, and Stellantis are all dipping their toes. In 2010 Nissan planned to manufacture 200k LEAFs per year in Tennessee. Once bitten twice shy.
 
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