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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...CD6-B9BD-4CD4-A972-436631E727DE}&siteid=yhoof

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Look out below! It's almost time for another monthly U.S. sales update from the automotive industry, and clearly not enough has changed to portend anything other than more double-digit declines for Detroit manufacturers.

In fact, if it wasn't for General Motors Corp.'s return to its popular employee pricing sales promotion, the struggling auto giant was tracking toward a whopping 50% year-over-year plunge in August car sales, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache.

He forecast earlier this week that the revived incentives plan will pull some sales forward from upcoming months and buoy the total somewhat, but he's still looking for GM to post a 30% drop from a "very difficult" comparison in the summer of last year.

All the major automakers are slated to hand in their August U.S. sales results next Wednesday, and while the numbers are expected to reflect an improvement from the prior month's abysmal showing, they will likely, once again, reflect an industry in turmoil.

Lache said the same conditions that led to last month's plunge still exist, including "low customer traffic driven by very poor durable goods buying conditions, difficult credit conditions driven by tightening standards and negative equity in trades, low availability of small cars, and a pullback in leasing."

He projected that Ford Motor Co. sales fell 22% while Chrysler, which relies more on big trucks and SUVs than any other manufacturer, could report a 35% sales drop.

Toyota Motor Corp., which has shown uncharacteristic weakness in recent months, has been feeling the pressure of a beaten-down U.S. consumer as well, with Lache targeting a 12% fall-off for the Japanese giant.
 

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If the whole market in general is down again this month, it wouldn't surprise me to see Toyota down as well. Why the media loves to bash on the Big 3 is beyond any reasoning.
 

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If the whole market in general is down again this month, it wouldn't surprise me to see Toyota down as well. Why the media loves to bash on the Big 3 is beyond any reasoning.
Because the "media" is demonstrably anti American and generally anti business.

In reality these are opinions being presented as "news" And no matter what actually happens the "media" will get another shot in when the real numbers are posted. And I predict those stories will be more gloom and doom, regardless of what the numbers actually are.
 

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It's all Doom & Gloom isnt it?!

Our store is off about 70 units (Probably 50%) because of no leasing here.
The no-leasing only affects certain models, however before the program was removed the US only has 20% of sales that are leases. In areas such which strike as a "poorer" city such as Flint, leases are usually a preferred choice.
 

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The no-leasing only affects certain models, however before the program was removed the US only has 20% of sales that are leases. In areas such which strike as a "poorer" city such as Flint, leases are usually a preferred choice.
Well it affects me, my living, and this entire area, so forgive me for not giving too much of a hoot about the "richer" areas right now.
 

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Well it affects me, my living, and this entire area, so forgive me for not giving too much of a hoot about the "richer" areas right now.
That isn't the point. The entire economy is doing a sort of snowball action. Where the rich aren't nearly affected with the poor are suffering. This doesn't necessarily have to do at all with GM or any other company. But the rising cost of food, materials, energy,... is all having diverse effects on the market from all levels. When houses in the Michigan area (the same area that was blooming some decades ago) are selling for $1, you know there is something terribly wrong.

More attractive finance prices will certainly help this downturn, but in the end people in those areas typically look for the lowest sticker price possible and won't usually car much about whether its a lease or finance.
 

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More attractive finance prices will certainly help this downturn, but in the end people in those areas typically look for the lowest sticker price possible and won't usually car much about whether its a lease or finance.
What I was trying to convey, to your point that only 20% of Americans lease is bringing out my biggest worry. That this snub by GM- dumping all the good leases, i.e. cheap payments, when all the people in Michigan, who have seen thier lives ruined by GM mis-management ,need it the most, will completely put GM in the ground in the most loyal state to GM they have. People who have been extremely loyal are now turning to Honda and Toyota by droves right now, day after day.

They should recognize that this Michigan market is a stand alone market.
Extremely dedicated to GM, and in desparate need of cheap lease payments.
 

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Employee pricing will even hurt them more next month. It has killed our sales this month @ CDN Ford. People cannot accept what thier trade in is really worth "Wholesale". We are going to make a month out of it, but it is all in the last 3 days of the month.

I do believe that sales will be "Way Down" for the big 3. 25% plus. Slightly less for the imports, people will still be seeking them do to Gas Prices.
 

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What I was trying to convey, to your point that only 20% of Americans lease is bringing out my biggest worry. That this snub by GM- dumping all the good leases, i.e. cheap payments, when all the people in Michigan, who have seen thier lives ruined by GM mis-management ,need it the most, will completely put GM in the ground in the most loyal state to GM they have. People who have been extremely loyal are now turning to Honda and Toyota by droves right now, day after day.

They should recognize that this Michigan market is a stand alone market.
Extremely dedicated to GM, and in desparate need of cheap lease payments.
Not all leases are done for however. You can still get leases on small cars and other new models. Trucks and other vehicles typically losing money to write offs will not be leased. GM isn't the only company in Detroit, Ford and Chrysler are very well in the area, as well as many suppliers. The fall of Michigan is not due to the big 3, but the government. Michigan has immense taxes that exist for manufacturing companies that make it incredibly difficult to produce anything within the state. Since then these taxes have changed, but the majority of the damage is done. You can place the blame on whoever you want, but there is always two sides to the coin.

Those "extremely loyal" people aren't at all loyal if they are switching companies. The ones that are switching are switching for different reasons, whether it would be poor past experience, more fuel efficient vehicles or simply for a so called better reliability. Last week came out a questionnaire on why people bought cars, surprisingly company name wasn't near the top of the list, lease programs was about at the middle of about 30 points.

Regardless of the market, GM does not control lease programs, GMAC does. For them to assume any sort of loss with trucks or other vehicles with poor lease buyback rates doesn't make any sort of sense on the business plan. It is unfortunate that this is the outcome, but all companies are having write downs on their lease vehicles and this can only last so long. If the market ever bounces back, subsidized leases may return, but that is if the market can accept it.
 

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I do believe that sales will be "Way Down" for the big 3. 25% plus. Slightly less for the imports, people will still be seeking them do to Gas Prices.
Why less for imports? The market in general isn't buying nearly as many vehicles. Last month Toyota had large negatives as well...
 

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I don't think 20-30% declines are any big surprise to anyone anymore given the current economic environment. It's ugly out there and credit to buy is tight.
 

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Because the "media" is demonstrably anti American and generally anti business.

In reality these are opinions being presented as "news" And no matter what actually happens the "media" will get another shot in when the real numbers are posted. And I predict those stories will be more gloom and doom, regardless of what the numbers actually are.
My bet is that those nubers will be 70% from the "expert" forecast and Toyota will be neck to neck and 99% of people will forget this article. It was a slow day so media guys had to make up a story. ANYBODY can be a "journalist" or "analyst" with Google and long lunch hour break.
 

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No one expects to hear anything different. Tough economic times mean a sales decine of new vehicles. I am not seeing the media bias here, the sales figures are in black and white. GM's boneheaded move to kill leasing is going to have a much larger long term impact as many who return their vehicles at the end of their term will be moving to another brand.
 

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Not all leases are done for however. You can still get leases on small cars and other new models. Trucks and other vehicles typically losing money to write offs will not be leased. GM isn't the only company in Detroit, Ford and Chrysler are very well in the area, as well as many suppliers. The fall of Michigan is not due to the big 3, but the government. Michigan has immense taxes that exist for manufacturing companies that make it incredibly difficult to produce anything within the state. Since then these taxes have changed, but the majority of the damage is done. You can place the blame on whoever you want, but there is always two sides to the coin.

Those "extremely loyal" people aren't at all loyal if they are switching companies. The ones that are switching are switching for different reasons, whether it would be poor past experience, more fuel efficient vehicles or simply for a so called better reliability. Last week came out a questionnaire on why people bought cars, surprisingly company name wasn't near the top of the list, lease programs was about at the middle of about 30 points.

Regardless of the market, GM does not control lease programs, GMAC does. For them to assume any sort of loss with trucks or other vehicles with poor lease buyback rates doesn't make any sort of sense on the business plan. It is unfortunate that this is the outcome, but all companies are having write downs on their lease vehicles and this can only last so long. If the market ever bounces back, subsidized leases may return, but that is if the market can accept it.

Tiredron is on the money. It all boils down to affordability. In Detroit our customers are used to paying $200 to $350 for a new car. Now, with a three hour warning, GM tells us that starting August first they are out of the lease business. So our customers come in looking for a new car to replace their G6 (possibly another G6 because it got good gas milage and never gave them a problem) and we hit them with a 72 month payment that is at least $100 per month more than they ever paid for a car and they freak out. Then they go home and see adds in the paper for imports that have lease payments in thier comfort zone.

GM missed a huge opportunity to sell alot of cars in August. Had GMAC sent a letter to all of their leased customers and explained that they were going to leave the leasing business on September 2nd and gave the dealers a heads up we could have ordered a large batch of 08s at build out for the big sale. Our customers would have had plenty of cars to choose from, They would have pulled ahead most of our leased customers from the fall, and gm would not have pissed offed their loyal lease customers because they would have givin them a choice.

If you are not in the trenches selling cars you have no clue as to what we are up against. GM has let thier dealers down, their customers down, and just as importantly their share holders. This 100 year sale could and should have been the best one. Our lots should be empty and the news crews should be out at the dealers doing stories of how this sale was excellent and proved to everyone that GM was back and out to prove that they deserve to be the largest automaker in the world. Instead some marketing folks at the Ren Cen let us down again.
 

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Tiredron is on the money. It all boils down to affordability. In Detroit our customers are used to paying $200 to $350 for a new car. Now, with a three hour warning, GM tells us that starting August first they are out of the lease business. So our customers come in looking for a new car to replace their G6 (possibly another G6 because it got good gas milage and never gave them a problem) and we hit them with a 72 month payment that is at least $100 per month more than they ever paid for a car and they freak out. Then they go home and see adds in the paper for imports that have lease payments in thier comfort zone.

GM missed a huge opportunity to sell alot of cars in August. Had GMAC sent a letter to all of their leased customers and explained that they were going to leave the leasing business on September 2nd and gave the dealers a heads up we could have ordered a large batch of 08s at build out for the big sale. Our customers would have had plenty of cars to choose from, They would have pulled ahead most of our leased customers from the fall, and gm would not have pissed offed their loyal lease customers because they would have givin them a choice.

If you are not in the trenches selling cars you have no clue as to what we are up against. GM has let thier dealers down, their customers down, and just as importantly their share holders. This 100 year sale could and should have been the best one. Our lots should be empty and the news crews should be out at the dealers doing stories of how this sale was excellent and proved to everyone that GM was back and out to prove that they deserve to be the largest automaker in the world. Instead some marketing folks at the Ren Cen let us down again.
I am not 100% sure about GM in the US, but the Vice President of VSSM for GM Canada sent a letter August 1st regarding leases. It explained why and what to do to buy a future GM vehicle. Canada has slightly more than 40% of purchased vehicles being leases. With adjusted prices on financing the difference with leasing isn't $100 in most cases unless you are looking at the wrong vehicle. Most cases financing is at 0% and competitor lease rates are around 4.9% on average. When it comes down to doing the math, it comes very close to the same. However with 72 month financing I found them to be either similar or even better priced than a 36 month lease (which most buyers get).

When financing you also don't get all the fancy restrictions thrown at you by leasing, for most people that is a good thing. Especially if you want to do modifications or drive just a little further rather than being charged a somewhat unfair rate per mile/km. If you opt for the 72 month financing deal you also have the option of an early buyout or sale when comes the time, something which plays much more of a difference than before.

People on these forums are heavily overreacting with these terms. It doesn't affect all models. Several models offer better financing rates and even some lease programs. If people still want to continue doing leases there are SEVERAL companies that specialize in vehicle leasing. You can go see them to lease any GM vehicle, even trucks and SUVs. The only difference is that you may not ever see 0% interest.
 

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I am not 100% sure about GM in the US, but the Vice President of VSSM for GM Canada sent a letter August 1st regarding leases. It explained why and what to do to buy a future GM vehicle. Canada has slightly more than 40% of purchased vehicles being leases. With adjusted prices on financing the difference with leasing isn't $100 in most cases unless you are looking at the wrong vehicle. Most cases financing is at 0% and competitor lease rates are around 4.9% on average. When it comes down to doing the math, it comes very close to the same. However with 72 month financing I found them to be either similar or even better priced than a 36 month lease (which most buyers get).

When financing you also don't get all the fancy restrictions thrown at you by leasing, for most people that is a good thing. Especially if you want to do modifications or drive just a little further rather than being charged a somewhat unfair rate per mile/km. If you opt for the 72 month financing deal you also have the option of an early buyout or sale when comes the time, something which plays much more of a difference than before.

People on these forums are heavily overreacting with these terms. It doesn't affect all models. Several models offer better financing rates and even some lease programs. If people still want to continue doing leases there are SEVERAL companies that specialize in vehicle leasing. You can go see them to lease any GM vehicle, even trucks and SUVs. The only difference is that you may not ever see 0% interest.
All very true, though I know of two people who opted against buying GM because they couldn't lease. Both lease for business reasons.
 

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All very true, though I know of two people who opted against buying GM because they couldn't lease. Both lease for business reasons.
Yeah which is somewhat unfortunate, but the dealers who really want to continue business find ways to offer lease programs through another company. You are seeing many leasing companies begin to team up with regional dealerships to offer a competitive package.
 

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After reading the article I can see why they went with the headline they did, GM/Chrysler are expecting the biggest % drops, these types of headlines get readers attention/clicks, more so than if they went with "Nissan might post 1% gain".

That being said, it would appear as though Honda is the new guy to watch, if it is just fuel prices influencing purchases then Honda should do ok, if it is consumer confidence, the conomy being bad etc, then Honda will drop like everyone.

Right now i would be expecting people to just avoid getting a new car, if they are close to paying off a loan then they will just sit tight and see more money by not paying a vehicle loan. If they are coming off a lease it will probably come down to what they can afford, a good chance some people will end up in a much smaller new vehicle than planned, or they will end up with a used vehicle with lower purchase price.
 
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