Ford Stock Up 31% In Last 13 Days; 55 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

7773 Views 46 Replies 31 Participants Last post by tgagneguam, Apr 5, 2008

Perian

Discussion Starter · Apr 3, 2008

Ford stock closed at $6.46 this afternoon on volume of almost 55 million shares making it the fourth most active stock on the NYSE today. You could have picked up Ford at $ 4.95 on March 17th.

Almost 6 million shares were traded between 3:55 and 4:00. The stock closed at the session high. Very bullish figures to say the least.

Look at this: At 3:40 there were 212,100 shares requested for purchase - and no sellers, creating a temporary order imbalance. Very strange for a stock with so many outstanding shares.

NYSE ORDER IMBALANCE 212100 SHARES ON BUY SIDE
Date April 03, 2008 Time 3:40 PM
Source: Reuters

What's going on? Is someone accumulating shares at a great price? Or is the stock just an apparent good value?

This is the only interesting article I could find:

One of the most vulnerable large US companies is Ford. Its current share of the domestic car market is about 15%. It does have some successful operations overseas, but it is not particularly well position in critical markets like China. Ford has made tremendous cost cuts, but the prices for metals used in its vehicles adds about $350 per unit compared to 2007, according to Lehman Brothers. Rising gas prices will hurt sales of its most successful products, SUVs and pick-ups. Ford's stock trades at $5.60 and was recently as low as $4.95, well below where it traded two years ago when there was concern that that the company might have to file for Chapter 11.

VW has recently said that it expects to sell eight million cars by 2011. That is up from 6.2 million last year, The European company says it can triple sales in the US over the next decade. VW's one huge weakness as a global car company is its tiny market share in the world's largest car market. A takeover by VW would give Ford products access to markets like China.It would also give VW the sales it wants in the US. Putting the two large car companies together would allow for significant cost savings and would create the largest auto company is the world with global revenue of over $260 billion.

Link: http://www.247wallst.com/2008/03/big-mergers-f-1.html

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megeebee

· #2 · Apr 3, 2008

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

The execs selling off? If anyone would know if something big was immenent, it would be them.

igor

· #3 · Apr 3, 2008

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

the AOL / 247 Wall street article is complete BS and idiocy

the truth is that Ford Stock has been undervalued for a LONG time - it is at about 50% of where it should be.

My guess is that someone decided to bite the bullet and bet their $$$ that the 2/4 and 2/2 of the year will see positive news from Ford and see the stock price go up . If I had free money I would have bought Ford stock a long time ago - it really had nowhere to go but up - especially with the management they have in charge and the product coming online in the months and years to come. I might bite the bullet in September and October before MKS/Flex/F150 success settles into Wall Street's mind, and before the 2010 Fusion and 2010 Mustang are revealed.

Igor

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igor

· #4 · Apr 3, 2008

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

megeebee said:
The execs selling off? If anyone would know if something big was immenent, it would be them.

if anyone was SELLING - the price would be going DOWN not UP - someone is BUYING the stock in droves.

VW and Ford are as close to merger as Daimler and Chrysler. Porsche just finished buying VW, and has no interest in adding more trouble to it. Mulally is hell bent on going it alone - simple and easy with 4-5 brands (Ford,Volvo, Lincoln, Mazda and maybe Mercury) and WITHOUT any merger.

notgonnahappen.com

Igor

Rocket 88

· #5 · Apr 3, 2008

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

Perian said:
A takeover by VW would give Ford products access to markets like China.It would also give VW the sales it wants in the US. Putting the two large car companies together would allow for significant cost savings and would create the largest auto company is the world with global revenue of over $260 billion.

Whats with the Germans? First Diamler-Chrysler... Now VW-Ford.

No Way...they can't be that stupid.

Road Kill

· #6 · Apr 3, 2008

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

VW has enough problems. While there are some attractive parts of Ford I don't think they wouls want to restructure it the way it needs to be. Other than trucks I don't really see any value in this for VW.

bone

· #7 · Apr 3, 2008 (Edited)

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

If I were to buy stock in a N.A. manufacturer, it would be Ford over G.M. Why? Ford is smaller and therefore potentially more efficient and easy to change, it has basically one brand worldwide(Ford), and those that aren't(Volvo and Mazda) contribute financially and in engineering, it has two excellent leaders in Mulally and Farley, and will get rid of Mercury. Its big weakness is Lincoln since they are essentially rebadged Fords,not luxury cars.

Dynamo

· #8 · Apr 3, 2008

Probably because they started dropping heads again and plan to for the next 2 weeks according to a ford guy I talked to yesterday.

Greg Burr

· #9 · Apr 3, 2008

Insitutional investors may be buying since it is at a low price (how much lower can it go without being BK) and is executing on asset sales (LR & Jag) and has some new products coming out, such as the Flex.

Or maybe they love the new Focus so much

New_Mexico_Sunset_on_Rt66

· #10 · Apr 3, 2008

Maybe there is a rumor that Toyota is thinking of buying them, at a higher share price perhaps? <Oh, but today is April 3, not the 1st>

mbukukanyau

· #11 · Apr 3, 2008

They shed a stupid liability that they were sinking money into perhaps?

ChevroletRevived

· #12 · Apr 3, 2008

Very interesting to say the least, these are curious numbers. Ford's stock certainly is undervalued ($6.46 is pitifully low), which would make for it to be a good buy depending on your future outlook for the company. Ford needs the Flex and next generation F-150 to do really well in order to show it's making some headway in the market on the sales, not just financial, side of things.

Clownzilla

· #13 · Apr 3, 2008

mbukukanyau said:
They shed a stupid liability that they were sinking money into perhaps?

Yeah, I think the realization that they no longer have Jag & Land Rover to worry about made their stock look more attractive. I bought some Ford and GM stock a couple of weeks ago because I am starting to see a glimpse of a positive future for them. Also, at below $6 for Ford and at around $17 for GM, the prices were a steal. I must encourage people though that if anyone decides to buy stock, ALWAYS buy for the long term. Don't fall into that short term trading trap.

Greg Burr

· #14 · Apr 3, 2008 (Edited)

I think that once an individual/(single entity) attains a 5% ownership stake, it has to be publicly disclosed. (as with Kirkorian)

Does not Ford have plenty of market access in China?

Maybe interest in the company is increased with LR & Jag gone. Maybe the pension liabilities were apoison pill. For that matter, maybe the UAW is a poison pill as well.

lio45

· #15 · Apr 3, 2008

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

megeebee said:
The execs selling off? If anyone would know if something big was immenent, it would be them.

As pointed out already by others, people are BUYING, not selling.

Ford execs trying to stock up on shares? (that's what your hypothesis becomes)

lio45

· #16 · Apr 3, 2008

ChevroletRevived said:
Very interesting to say the least, these are curious numbers. Ford's stock certainly is undervalued ($6.46 is pitifully low), which would make for it to be a good buy depending on your future outlook for the company. Ford needs the Flex and next generation F-150 to do really well in order to show it's making some headway in the market on the sales, not just financial, side of things.

You're aware that Ford's stock is currently HIGHER than GM's stock...

(as of today, Ford market cap : $13.8B ; GM market cap : $12.2B)

Which means that GM (which is worth less) is even more undervalued than Ford UNLESS you agree to say Ford's in substantially better health than GM...

skylark68

· #17 · Apr 3, 2008

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

igor said:
the AOL / 247 Wall street article is complete BS and idiocy

I agree. I see VW buying out Ford (or merging) as much as I see Sears being bought out by Wal-Mart or Target.

Welcome to "ain't gonna happen land"

ChevroletRevived

· #18 · Apr 3, 2008

lio45 said:
You're aware that Ford's stock is currently HIGHER than GM's stock...

(as of today, Ford market cap : $13.8B ; GM market cap : $12.2B)

Which means that GM (which is worth less) is even more undervalued than Ford UNLESS you agree to say Ford's in substantially better health than GM...

No, I would not say that Ford is in better health then GM.

They're both undervalued but GM definitely more so. It's sad that the market cap and stock price for both companies is so low.

BullyDog

· #19 · Apr 3, 2008

Re: Ford Stock Up 30% In Last 13 Days; 52 Million Shares Trade Today; Why?

megeebee said:
The execs selling off? If anyone would know if something big was immenent, it would be them.

That's called insider trading and it's illeagal.

dzuchowski

· #20 · Apr 3, 2008

interesting very interesting, i must dispatch my minons and have them buy Desoto stock!!! Go now and by me Desoto Auto stock!!!! Before Chrysler buys them

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