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And that’s why I think we’re not getting out of this vehicle supply shortage fog as quickly as some expect/hope…
There’s a lot of money to be made by restricting supplies, watch them milk it for all they can…
Interesting effect for the auto makes. I bet most auto makes would be feeling the hurt of the economy if they could produce all they want as I suspect we would be in a recession. I would say this situation lets the auto makes weather the recession storm much better than they would otherwise ever be able to. But, at the same time what has been good for the auto industry is probably not good for the economy.

But of course, if they could produce all they wanted then it would mean the world economy is functioning normally and we'd most likely not be in a recession type economy (I don't think we are officially in a recession, but I'm not quite trusting those that tell us we are in a recession as I feel they have other political goals - but that's a different topic).
 

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It's a chicken or the egg scenario, either demand drops because the economy is suffering from shortages and inflation, or demand finally falls to where supply can be met and pricing can finally come down.

Whoever can sort out their battery commodities definitely wins the race here, prices are making the EV transition very unsustainable in the short-term. It's hard to see when this changes, but everything seems to be taking way longer than expected. The fruit of GM's battery investments might be paying off big time against Ford which is years behind on their battery manufacturing footprint. Their battery supply is incredibly expensive right now.

We are going to be seeing a considerable amount of de-contenting and simplification in automotive design going forward, it's already happening. Basically a retreat from the feature and materials bloat that have been happening for decades now, although we will continue to see core technologies pushed forward because they can reduce cost and complexity while adding more software features.
 

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China/Taiwan zero covid tolerance has not gone away whole big cities & factories are still getting shut down for months, companies like Opel are giving up on any expansion plans in China because of the geo-political situation & the Chinese zero covid tolerance.

A lot Chinese car companies have just started to arrive in the UK not sure how good the products are folk seem happy with the Chinese, starting to steal sales from the traditional automakers, sad to say will start to steal sales as they are hard to beat on price in market place with inflation running a 10.5% people folk are looking to hack back on costs they are bound to be looking for value for money.

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Chinese Maxus brand seem light years ahead of Ford UK, the UK gets it first electric pick-up truck a Chinese Maxus. Ford of Europe are asleep at the wheel with no Ranger EV yet.

Would be nice to a Bronco, cheaper to by Maverick EV or Chevy LUV EV, something to relieve the total endless boredom that only sells at your local Ford UK dealers what a shame, never mind.

Ford of Europe are carried by Ford commercial sales/profits, sad to say Maxus prices are going to cause Ford of Europe a lot of headaches it is heavily discounting it's vans, and they have a whole range of EV vans and they have only just started in the UK. Maxus seem to be offering huge discounts on its fleet of electric vans.

Sad to say think Ford of Europe are going to struggle a bit in the future with making profits here, Maxus have virtually no market share in their first year, you just have a very bad feeling about Ford of Europe probability in the future & where it's all heading. Chinese SAIC look like they are going to eat Ford commercials sales from below on a budget price, already have whole range of EV vans.

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Will Ford of Europe be able to complete on price with the Chinese who are heavily discounting to establish market share & will have a huge control monopoly in the EV market, the Chinese have been buying up Cobalt Lithium mines globally, have huge rare earths supplies in China and an abundance of cheap labour that Europe won't be able to complete on price with.

Ford of Europe Cologne German workforce has some of the highest labor costs in the world, will they be able to match the Chinese on price? Maxus seem to have a whole range of EV vans and the UK first EV pick-up truck sad to say, and that's where Ford of Europe make most of its profit on its commercial mostly Transit sales in Europe.

Oh dear very sad to see Fords costs are going up by a billion, just as the Chinese arrive in the UK with a cheap range Maxus vans & the UK's first electric pick-up and offering huge discounts on EV's that's not good news.
 
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Interesting effect for the auto makes. I bet most auto makes would be feeling the hurt of the economy if they could produce all they want as I suspect we would be in a recession. I would say this situation lets the auto makes weather the recession storm much better than they would otherwise ever be able to. But, at the same time what has been good for the auto industry is probably not good for the economy.

But of course, if they could produce all they wanted then it would mean the world economy is functioning normally and we'd most likely not be in a recession type economy (I don't think we are officially in a recession, but I'm not quite trusting those that tell us we are in a recession as I feel they have other political goals - but that's a different topic).
But really, there is no recession in the true sense, what we have is inflated prices and wage increases not matching the higher costs. They’re basically trying to cut the legs off people that can least afford borrowing increases. Most just tighten their belts and keep buying that new vehicle or that new house….
 

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But really, there is no recession in the true sense, what we have is inflated prices and wage increases not matching the higher costs. They’re basically trying to cut the legs off people that can least afford borrowing increases. Most just tighten their belts and keep buying that new vehicle or that new house….
For all of the talk about inflation, the biggest problem facing business in the United States is lack of workers. Our unemployment rate stands at 3.7%. At this rate, everyone who wants a job has a job. In fact, many people hold down several jobs. Even at that, we have 11 million job openings left unfilled.
 

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But really, there is no recession in the true sense, what we have is inflated prices and wage increases not matching the higher costs. They’re basically trying to cut the legs off people that can least afford borrowing increases. Most just tighten their belts and keep buying that new vehicle or that new house….
But, tightening the belt means cutting out spending. Someone is on the losing end of that deal - restaurants, bars, vacation industry are generally some of the the first expenses to be cut. Things are pretty messed up economically and hard to tell what is going on. I just know the people calling the shots appear politically motivated and I don't trust what they are saying - very recently I recall someone in a very high political office telling the nation that there is no inflation, therefore I suspect he is bearing pressure to have the experts tell us there is no recession.
 

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For all of the talk about inflation, the biggest problem facing business in the United States is lack of workers. Our unemployment rate stands at 3.7%. At this rate, everyone who wants a job has a job. In fact, many people hold down several jobs. Even at that, we have 11 million job openings left unfilled.

If only there were people that wanted to come to the country and work.... :unsure:
 

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If only there were people that wanted to come to the country and work.... :unsure:
They're coming! We can't stop them. Unfortunately nobody wants them. This seems to be another NIMBY situation.
 

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But, tightening the belt means cutting out spending. Someone is on the losing end of that deal - restaurants, bars, vacation industry are generally some of the the first expenses to be cut. Things are pretty messed up economically and hard to tell what is going on. I just know the people calling the shots appear politically motivated and I don't trust what they are saying - very recently I recall someone in a very high political office telling the nation that there is no inflation, therefore I suspect he is bearing pressure to have the experts tell us there is no recession.
There’s still a lot of strength in the economy, low unemployment, creation of new jobs in the past two quarters has been impressive when people have been predicting downturn and loss of jobs.

Whats more likely here is a slight cooling of inflation which is being driven by prices not wage increases (reactive).
 

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For all of the talk about inflation, the biggest problem facing business in the United States is lack of workers. Our unemployment rate stands at 3.7%. At this rate, everyone who wants a job has a job. In fact, many people hold down several jobs. Even at that, we have 11 million job openings left unfilled.
What’s being missed is that quite a few people are quitting lower paying jobs and getting better paying jobs. Quite a few of those 11 million job openings are also multi listed so possibly counting the same ones several times over..

And yes, the screaming headline about inflation is all about jacked up prices everyone is being forced to pay, all while corporates make impressive profits that go unmentioned in all of this. Strangling the most financially Exposed with higher borrowing costs shows that the Fed has been asleep at the switch and possibly overcompensating now when perhaps they should hold off on any further increases (your previous When you’re a hammer comment..)
 

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"Ford Motor Co. shares dropped more than 5% in the extended session Monday after the company said inflation and parts shortages will leave it with more unfinished vehicles than it had expected, reminding Wall Street supply-chain snags are far from over for auto makers".

More at the link...

Ford stock drops more than 5% as supply costs to jump by $1 billion, parts shortages to leave more cars unfinished - MarketWatch
I live in Kansas City that is 1 of the places F-150s and Transit vans are made at the Claycomo plant. A year or so ago a very large lot where an auto auction had been started getting new F-150 parked in it. I estimate there are a thousand or so rotating in and out. They haul truckloads in and out all day. Driving around KC you see new trucks parked everywhere. Last week I saw a slew of them parked on rail yard property by the tracks. Some of them do have company decals on them so it appears they are sold. The cost of leasing all of the property to park on, security and the hauling isn’t cheap. This has to hit the bottom line somewhere.

It hails here, I can imagine the hail sale or paintless dent removal cost. I would hate to get my new truck and it actually had been built months ago and sat outside.
 

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What’s being missed is that quite a few people are quitting lower paying jobs and getting better paying jobs. Quite a few of those 11 million job openings are also multi listed so possibly counting the same ones several times over..

And yes, the screaming headline about inflation is all about jacked up prices everyone is being forced to pay, all while corporates make impressive profits that go unmentioned in all of this. Strangling the most financially Exposed with higher borrowing costs shows that the Fed has been asleep at the switch and possibly overcompensating now when perhaps they should hold off on any further increases (your previous When you’re a hammer comment..)
Kind of off on a tangent to what you are saying....

Your bringing up inflation triggered me to think of my own company. Our inventory (both supply/repair parts and finished goods) are through the roof vs. a year ago. We are stocking up for a couple of reasons - shipping delays for one, potential stock-outs from suppliers, but the other is to help avoid rising prices. Our warehouses are packed... I've no doubt that Ford, GM, etc. have all abandoned just in time - I bet they have limited storage area due to implementing JIT a long time ago. I wonder, if in some cases, the manufacturers are saving money by producing before utility costs go up and/or needing to rent additional warehouse space to store spare parts. So that risk of damage on the lots, etc. has a lower cost than waiting to produce until all the parts are in. Plus, as been mentioned, they can get that product in the showroom faster if most of it is already built.
 
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