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Google "Credit Card Delinquency" it's not "bad" yet, but it is certainly going in the wrong direction (you like trends right?) and considering the number of people that live "pay-check-to-paycheck" increasing credit card balances, with increasing interest rates...

I heard it described like this; 30% of the population is doing 'OK' it's just the other 70% that wasn't before all this started...
Most of the recession influence on GDP is coming from reduced government investment and industry investment due to rising inventory (not vehicles) which will have some affect on manufacture.

Hopefully this remains a mild Recession with small negative quarterly figures, it in everyone’s interest to have a gentle inflation correction that doesn’t shock the economy into free fall. Something that’s a work in progress but wondering about the impact of latest package passed by Washington, maybe a benign lump for the next six months or so…..
 

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"maybe a benign lump for the next six months or so….."

Benign lumps are fine... as long as they stay benign.
 
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Autonews:

Ford Motor Co. is increasing the starting price of the F-150 Lightning electric pickup $6,000 to $8,500 across all trims because of rising material costs as it reopens order banks for current reservation holders.

The entry-level Pro trim gets the biggest percentage price hike, up about 17 percent to $48,769, including a $1,795 shipping fee.

The Lightning's sub-$40,000 starting price, excluding shipping fees, was a key marketing point that Ford touted at the vehicle's launch. But executives have warned that price increases would be coming as rising commodity costs have wiped out early profits on the Mustang Mach-E and other Electric Vehicles
 

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Discussion Starter · #84 ·
Most of the recession influence on GDP is coming from reduced government investment and industry investment due to rising inventory (not vehicles) which will have some affect on manufacture.

Hopefully this remains a mild Recession with small negative quarterly figures, it in everyone’s interest to have a gentle inflation correction that doesn’t shock the economy into free fall. Something that’s a work in progress but wondering about the impact of latest package passed by Washington, maybe a benign lump for the next six months or so…..

When you say...... "reduced government investment" do you mean dropping trillions of dollars from helicopters?

They (the talking heads) are trying to paint the CPI of 'only' 8.5% as a good thing, how many mention that 8.5% is on top of the "transitory" increase of 5.4% last July. (or even more disingenuous, 0% increase Month over month) which i just another way of saying no better than things were last month, considering how much gas has declined? not-good.
 

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When you say...... "reduced government investment" do you mean dropping trillions of dollars from helicopters?

They (the talking heads) are trying to paint the CPI of 'only' 8.5% as a good thing, how many mention that 8.5% is on top of the "transitory" increase of 5.4% last July. (or even more disingenuous, 0% increase Month over month) which i just another way of saying no better than things were last month, considering how much gas has declined? not-good.
Between June and July, the drop in fuel prices basically matched other price increases, so inflation was basically zero. The big question now is whether ful prices keep falling and what affect that has on on the inflation of everything else - do prices on other goods and services continue rising or begin nosing over.

Previusly, you’ve said that businesses can’t take back wage increases but if those wage increases have not kept pace with inflation, some price rejection will be coming as the market begin correcting. The stock market still seems to be confident that this will be a soft landing situation. That depend upon analysts going chicken little or having a balanced view.
 

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Between June and July, the drop in fuel prices basically matched other price increases, so inflation was basically zero. The big question now is whether ful prices keep falling and what affect that has on on the inflation of everything else - do prices on other goods and services continue rising or begin nosing over.

Previusly, you’ve said that businesses can’t take back wage increases but if those wage increases have not kept pace with inflation, some price rejection will be coming as the market begin correcting.
Inflation wasn't zero. That's not how it works. Yes, it dropped M2M but it wasn't zero by any way of the word.
 

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Discussion Starter · #89 ·
Between June and July, the drop in fuel prices basically matched other price increases, so inflation was basically zero. The big question now is whether fuel prices keep falling and what affect that has on on the inflation of everything else - do prices on other goods and services continue rising or begin nosing over.
I completely understand, can you find news reports that report inflation measured in this way?

Gas went down because speculation and wait-for it.... demand destruction.

Previously, you’ve said that businesses can’t take back wage increases but if those wage increases have not kept pace with inflation, some price rejection will be coming as the market begin correcting. The stock market still seems to be confident that this will be a soft landing situation. That depend upon analysts going chicken little or having a balanced view.
Yeah people are going broke, maxing out Credit Cards, etc.

Markets are often irrational, they are acting like the Fed is done, or almost done, and QT which is about to double per-moth isn't going to happen
 

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I completely understand, can you find news reports that report inflation measured in this way?

Gas went down because speculation and wait-for it.... demand destruction.
Yeah people are going broke, maxing out Credit Cards, etc.

Markets are often irrational, they are acting like the Fed is done, or almost done, and QT which is about to double per-moth isn't going to happen
At the moment, I don’t thinks so, your view is overly pessimistic, don’t write off the power of the US.
 

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I understand that but it still doesn't make it zero. Zero would mean the inflation number was .0%. It wasn't.

Regarding credit cards:

Household Debt and Credit Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)

These are not good numbers. With debt becoming more expensive we're in trouble. Simple as that.
As the article says, the vast majority of that debt is in mortgages. If real estate prices stay up, everyone is happy. If real estate prices go down and people are underwater on their mortgages, watch out, major problems.
 

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As the article says, the vast majority of that debt is in mortgages. If real estate prices stay up, everyone is happy. If real estate prices go down and people are underwater on their mortgages, watch out, major problems.
Credit card balances saw their largest year-over-year percentage increase in more than twenty years, while aggregate limits on cards marked their largest increase in over ten years.
This was more of what I was trying to show. Yes, mortgages are up but these two stats are pretty bad.
 

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As the article says, the vast majority of that debt is in mortgages. If real estate prices stay up, everyone is happy. If real estate prices go down and people are underwater on their mortgages, watch out, major problems.
Actually, depends on if they are in traditional mortgages or ARM's. People with ARM's could get in trouble real fast......
 
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I understand that but it still doesn't make it zero. Zero would mean the inflation number was .0%. It wasn't.
I understand that it’s the standard way they count inflation but they basically ignore the big drops in gas prices which offsets the official number
Regarding credit cards:

Household Debt and Credit Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)

These are not good numbers. With debt becoming more expensive we're in trouble. Simple as that.
And this is where the Fed needs to realise that further interst rates may not be needed, especially if house prices and demand noses over. Don’t get me wrong, there will be a correction in the housing market but perhaps not a deep one. Money lenders need a balance between sending lenders broke and keeping interest payments coming in…don’t ya think?

528k new jobs in July was unexpected, if that strength continues in August September then conditions change completely.

Higher debts but with near full employment has to be a capitalist’s dream, everyone working, buying stuff and paying their debts.
 

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Discussion Starter · #97 ·

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I understand that it’s the standard way they count inflation but they basically ignore the big drops in gas prices which offsets the official number
They ignored the rise in gas prices as well so you can't say, well, they ignored it on the way down as well.

Inflation is still absolutely an issue.
 

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They ignored the rise in gas prices as well so you can't say, well, they ignored it on the way down as well.
The point being that high gas prices added to inflation costs on the way up but now, those added costs are reducing. A big factor that being ignored when the pessimists want to look at their charts.

Inflation is still absolutely an issue.
One that’s being addressed.
 
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