DSG's are probably where the big 3 will be in the next 10yrs. I wouldn't count on traditional automatics being as popular, however they will exist until the shift quality is improved in the control strategy.
You have to look at it in terms of mechanical efficiency, manuals have a traditional automatic beat. No torque converter making heat at idle stop and start, no draw of a hydraulic pump.
You can also look at it in terms of complexity. No hydraulic actuators, valve bodies, or other parts that require as tight of machining tolerances. Contamination is not as big an issue either compared to the hydraulic system.
The only draw back is the shift timing. A traditional automatic can shift pretty quick, but I'm sure part of the development around these DSG transmissions is getting the electro servos just as quick as hydraulic actuators. This mainly stems around modeling the system properly with DiffyQ, trust me we tried one at my school, and it is a pain in the butt to write a control strategy for, and consequently never went on our vehicle. Not to mention we used a single clutch, and designed the shift algorithm around when the trans and engine speed were matched (mimick double clutching to extend clutch and syncro life). We had a cable throttle which made it even more difficult, an E throttle is a must for this type of trans. So as you can imagine, quite rare when engine and trans speed is matched. So we set a range of speeds, but that just caused it to do hard engagements.
If they get the shift timming right, and a Dual clutch helps with the overlap durring the shift, traditional automatics will be a thing of the past. CVT's wont even be worth the money because these DSG's rival, if not beat a CVT in terms of efficiency, and have higher torque capacity for heavy duty aps.
Not to mention, it's masked to the customer, they'll just see an improvement in fuel economy, around 10-15%, which is pretty good. No reving at a constant RPM, which ford 500 customers didn't like.
I don't think the goal is to replace traditional manuals, just make a common transmission for the vehicle. So you would option out a DSG autoshift, vs. the traditional manual. No more having 2 transmissions. Trust me gents, lot of potential here to save money, and get a leg up on the competition.
