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Discussion Starter #61
Toyota's problems are minimal compared to the rest of the auto industry.
But they despite painstaking efforts to avoid shut-downs, still have; correct?


I never said EV's are going to happen overnight. We've got 15 years to get there.
I never said you did; I was actually acknowledging that you have time on you side, good job winning a false argument., but there are a lot of things that we've been working on for more than 15 years and still haven't figured out.

IT will happen. And it's going to happen.
The foreseeable roadmap for every company out there is all EV. You don't halt that.
No, if's and's or but's about it, and that is one of the key reasons to be more hesitant and concerned, not less.

Besides everybody, who didn't see the chip shortage 15 years ago, that we are in the middle of?
 

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But they despite painstaking efforts to avoid shut-downs, still have; correct?
The way I understand it, disruption to Toyota's production stem from US port backlogs and severe weather, not chip disruption.
But if Toyota has a 3-6 month extra supply in chips, and the supply shortage runs for more than 6 months (it's nearly there now), you can easily see Toyota being affected by it.



I never said you did; I was actually acknowledging that you have time on you side, good job winning a false argument., but there are a lot of things that we've been working on for more than 15 years and still haven't figured out.
Like it or not, we've got 15 years. If established companies (gas stations, oil companies, etc.) aren't going to get on board, then a smaller, faster moving company will move into this nascent space. There's a lot of new charging station companies (EVGo, etc) that are moving in that can easily make an established name for themselves.
That's where the growth is going to happen.


No, if's and's or but's about it, and that is one of the key reasons to be more hesitant and concerned, not less.

Besides everybody, who didn't see the chip shortage 15 years ago, that we are in the middle of?
I'm not too concerned.
I think there's a lot of discontent and uncomfortable feelings from "something new" coming on the scene, and people aren't used to it.
 

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Discussion Starter #63
Like it or not, we've got 15 years. If established companies (gas stations, oil companies, etc.) aren't going to get on board, then a smaller, faster moving company will move into this nascent space. There's a lot of new charging station companies (EVGo, etc) that are moving in that can easily make an established name for themselves.
That's where the growth is going to happen.
No-pun intended, but it is going to be like a dimmer-switch, not a on/off light switch, the supply will have to ramp with the demand/growth.

I still haven't heard a viable business model that works for public charging stations, combination of the volume they'd have to do with the rates they would have to charge doesn't compute. You need enough that people don't have to wait, at the same time, high enough utilization rates and mark-up on the electricity. Today we have to go the the gas station, that won't be the case in the future, only people desperate will charge away from how and only as much as they need.

I'm not too concerned.
I think there's a lot of discontent and uncomfortable feelings from "something new" coming on the scene, and people aren't used to it.
Yes, I know; that what started all of this back-and-forth.......... But it's not about being comfortable; it's about being reasonable, logical and possible. OK I've gotta go stir my seaweed, making so E85 in my garage..........
 

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No-pun intended, but it is going to be like a dimmer-switch, not a on/off light switch, the supply will have to ramp with the demand/growth.

I still haven't heard a viable business model that works for public charging stations, combination of the volume they'd have to do with the rates they would have to charge doesn't compute. You need enough that people don't have to wait, at the same time, high enough utilization rates and mark-up on the electricity. Today we have to go the the gas station, that won't be the case in the future, only people desperate will charge away from how and only as much as they need.



Yes, I know; that what started all of this back-and-forth.......... But it's not about being comfortable; it's about being reasonable, logical and possible. OK I've gotta go stir my seaweed, making so E85 in my garage..........
IMHO I imagine "slow charger" level 2 stalls will show up at places like Walmart and Kaufland ETC and apartment dwellers will charge while shopping at a per hour rate and the occasional fast charge "top up"
and in 15 years even if EVERY NEW car was EV there is a LARGE pool of used ICEV vehicles that will be available and the small % that wont buy EV will HANG ONTO there "classic" ICEV
and for E85 GM pushed it because CAFE ratings ONLY used the PETROL portion so FFV's got super fuel economy on E85 and GM + the corn lobby pushed HARD not for the environment BUT to stave off actually improving there fuel economy / to make $$$ (corn growers association)
 

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I still haven't heard a viable business model that works for public charging stations, combination of the volume they'd have to do with the rates they would have to charge doesn't compute. You need enough that people don't have to wait, at the same time, high enough utilization rates and mark-up on the electricity. Today we have to go the the gas station, that won't be the case in the future, only people desperate will charge away from how and only as much as they need.
It's kinda easy to think it through:
Charging stations at the mall can be subsidized by the mall retailers. That happens at a local mall. There's 40 Superchargers standing by. Plug in... go into the mall and have lunch... come back out.
Install charging stations on an entire floor of a public parking garage. Put a nominal charge on the charging stations or subsidize by parking garage fees.... or both.
Charging station companies will have real estate arms and locate their stations in areas where they're needed or in travel convenient destination stops along the way. You pay per charge. Or charge a monthly subscription fee. I'm sure there are a couple business analysts cranking out the strategy for this right now.
Company parking lots also have charging stations. I know mine does, though with covid, I haven't even been to the company HQ yet. But I've been told there's a lot of them, as many employees have EVs already.

For the last decades, we've seen a decline of gas stations across the country. And we're now seeing a rise of charging stations. Teslas are rolling out the V3 SuperChargers. There are 350khw stations coming out as well. Time to charge is improving.
It's also a behavior change for drivers. You're generally not going to drive till the battery is almost empty anyways. You'll want to top off from time to time.

Look. If New York cabbies can use Model 3 with no issues on a daily basis, EV's will have no problems long term as the tech improves.
 

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I think that every fast food restaurant on the interstate needs to put in numerous charging stations to attract the road-trippers. Eat lunch while charging for 30 minutes. Gas stations are going to be pointless once EVs come around. Who wants crappy food and expensive snacks when you can eat at a Chikfila or Jason's Deli while you charge? The gas station model is going to change if restaurants get smart.
 
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I think that every fast food restaurant on the interstate needs to put in numerous charging stations to attract the road-trippers. Eat lunch while charging for 30 minutes. Gas stations are going to be pointless once EVs come around. Who wants crappy food and expensive snacks when you can eat at a Chikfila or Jason's Deli while you charge? The gas station model is going to change if restaurants get smart.
I guarantee you that the people at Chevron and Exxon and Shell are looking at their gas stations and looking at a strategy on how to pivot them to help serve the coming EVs.
I bet that some of them will brand them as well.

And you're right, the interstates will be dotted with charging stations and SuperChargers.

It will just take some time.
 

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Discussion Starter #68
It's kinda easy to think it through:
Charging stations at the mall can be subsidized by the mall retailers. That happens at a local mall. There's 40 Superchargers standing by. Plug in... go into the mall and have lunch... come back out.
Install charging stations on an entire floor of a public parking garage. Put a nominal charge on the charging stations or subsidize by parking garage fees.... or both.
Sure, "easy to think through" just not as a profitable business model.

Are you going to the mall for lunch, just to charge your car?

Parking is free in the majority of the country.

People will only charge away from home; when the have to or if it is free, or at least no more than their home rates.


Charging station companies will have real estate arms and locate their stations in areas where they're needed or in travel convenient destination stops along the way. You pay per charge. Or charge a monthly subscription fee. I'm sure there are a couple business analysts cranking out the strategy for this right now.
Company parking lots also have charging stations. I know mine does, though with covid, I haven't even been to the company HQ yet. But I've been told there's a lot of them, as many employees have EVs already.

For the last decades, we've seen a decline of gas stations across the country. And we're now seeing a rise of charging stations. Teslas are rolling out the V3 SuperChargers. There are 350khw stations coming out as well. Time to charge is improving.
It's also a behavior change for drivers. You're generally not going to drive till the battery is almost empty anyways. You'll want to top off from time to time.
People will only charge away from home; when the have to or if it is free, or at least no more than their home rates.


Look. If New York cabbies can use Model 3 with no issues on a daily basis, EV's will have no problems long term as the tech improves.
Do they charge mid-shift, switch cars when a re-charge is needed or swap cars? All are fine, but has nothing to do with a viable public charging program.


I think that every fast food restaurant on the interstate needs to put in numerous charging stations to attract the road-trippers. Eat lunch while charging for 30 minutes. Gas stations are going to be pointless once EVs come around. Who wants crappy food and expensive snacks when you can eat at a Chikfila or Jason's Deli while you charge? The gas station model is going to change if restaurants get smart.
And they need an hour to charge, to you give them a ticket for loitering?

My dad and I would always stop at the same station when we'd go up North, it was a big gas station and truck stop, which also had a Wendy's, we would usually and grab a bite, depending on home much time we had, we would eat inside or get it to go, the number of people that went through that gas station was truly amazing, 4 minutes to get your gas and 4 minutes to get your food, 30-60 minute "fill-ups" would really put a bottle-neck in everyone's trip. However............ and extremely high rate for electricity would keep the lines down.
 
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