[doh]

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/...f&guid={5F566FA9-BECA-4C06-8EA8-295E886C9E92}

"I think the best way I can explain it is: They still don't get it." So says John Bulcroft, auto industry consultant at The Advisory Group. He tells John Wordock General Motors should have cut back on trucks and SUVs about a year ago. Bulcroft also predicts GM will have problems rolling out the Chevy Volt because the company still lacks the technology. As for getting rid of the Hummer brand, Bulcroft calls that a "wise move."

 

[ARCANGEL]

bulcroft is bull****

 

[Ronald McChevy]

Bulcroft also predicts GM will have problems rolling out the Chevy Volt because the company still lacks the technology.

I guess he reached this conclusion after carefully examining labs, and seeing all the proprietary technology that nobody outside of GM has access to, right?

Oh wait, he's just pulling it out of his butt? Well, everyone knows GM is stupid so he's probably right.

 

[K-1]

Well, everyone knows GM is stupid so he's probably right.

Of course. This is the land of eternal self-loathing. Nothing good can ever come from an American company.

 

[jkennedy293]

He tells John Wordock General Motors should have cut back on trucks and SUVs about a year ago.

Man this guy is amazing, he has perfect hindsight!!

 

[CamaroCrazy]

So easy to judge and criticize, isn't it John?

 

[GM-10]

Yeah-They should have known gas prices were gonna spike a dollar in a year.

 

[WishIhadatruck]

Definitely more hindsight than insight. I guess they were just looking for an opportunity to bash GM.

He says the "still don't get it" which sounds like the present tense. However he's actually talking about the past. He though they should have done what they are doing now a year ago. I think he's really confused.

 

[Kennyboy]

Blah, blah blah. Nobody can predict the future, fool.

 

[PhishPhood]

Yeah-They should have known gas prices were gonna spike a dollar in a year.

OK some did....or at least planned for the eventuality.

Now at least Mullaly has formally stated that Ford is planning for fuel to remain in the $3.75 to $4.25 range all of this year and all of next year. Unstated here though is the expectation that it will spike further beyond the $5 / gal range thereafter.

This is the specific job of the planning groups to give Upper Management different scenarios depending on macro-economic events such as fuel going to $4 and $5 and $6 a gallon. Management then can either act or not on the recommendations.

Here is a good solid conservative scenario everyone should plan on...
$2.85 a gallon in 2007 - fact
$3.50 a gallon in 2008 - fact
$4.00 a gallon in 2009
$5.00 a gallon in 2011
$6.00 a gallon in 2013
$7.00 a gallon in 2015
$10.00 a gallon in 2021
Plan on it or be blindsided, the choice is yours ( and GM's ).

 

[Aprime]

Yeah-They should have known gas prices were gonna spike a dollar in a year.

It doesn't take a genius to figure that one out.

We always always had incremental increases since 04, and with all the speculation going on it was bound to rise even more.

Limiting your car offerings to so little is stupid. Toyota might have a seven or eight SUVs, they still have their rather big stable of cars to compensate for them (I'm talking about like, Toyota vs. Chevy).

While Chevy has three uninteresting cars to chose from and the Malibu (and Impala, but meh), which comes with a 4-speed in the base trim. The Astra is rated ridiculously fuel inefficient for its displacement (something I don't understand, and cannot be blamed on the transmissions as far as I know - there's something with GM vehicles and EPA testing these days), Pontiac has a rebadged Toyota that few people ever considered in its last form (perhaps that will change now?) and a G5, which is a sharper looking Cobalt coupe.

Toyota has three brands in North America, and they manage to offer equally as many 'interesting' (from a regular Joe perspective) cars as SUVs, hell I think they have more... Not to mention their halo vehicle, which has been out for years and available for you to purchase RIGHT NOW, thus making them pretty much crisis proof.

Blah, blah blah. Nobody can predict the future, fool.

No, but you can protect yourself from whatever might happen by having these offerings already.

Jeesh.

 

[mkaresh]

Yeah-They should have known gas prices were gonna spike a dollar in a year.

Everyone has known for a long time that the long-term trend would be up and up. The only question was when, not if.

GM has simply been resource constrained. They could (or felt they could) only develop products they felt were sure to sell for a good profit. They didn't develop products for something that was likely, but not certain, to happen.

On the Volt: I suspect the primary challenge is cost, not technology. They won't be able to sell many unless they cut the cost by at least 30 percent. And that's going to be tough in the short term.

 

[mkaresh]

It doesn't take a genius to figure that one out.

We always always had incremental increases since 04, and with all the speculation going on it was bound to rise even more.

The Astra is rated ridiculously fuel inefficient for its displacement (something I don't understand, and cannot be blamed on the transmissions as far as I know - there's something with GM vehicles and EPA testing these days)...

The Astra is too heavy for a 1.8-liter engine or stellar fuel economy. Mystery solved.

 

[New_Mexico_Sunset_on_Rt66]

Boy, there's a guy you'd like to follow into battle.

I work in the high-tech industry, and as far as the Volt goes, you look about 18 months down the road as to what you expect for device size and speed, for instance. You don't look at what is available now for a product you plan to release in 2 years. Using Moore's Law you predict where size will be in 18 months if you want to shrink you product, for instance.

The same goes for Li-ion batteries.

And all in the same conversation this guy pisses on GM for producing the Hummer, then pisses on them for committing to the Volt.

GM could produce a product which runs on "sunflowers and love" and someone would still piss on 'em.

 

[New_Mexico_Sunset_on_Rt66]

On the Volt: I suspect the primary challenge is cost, not technology. They won't be able to sell many unless they cut the cost by at least 30 percent. And that's going to be tough in the short term.

What if it's offered as a Cadillac first? Cuz all new technology seems to be on the expensive cars first. Like I remember when intermittent wipers in the 70's were only offered on MB's. Intermittent wipers were a big thing back then. I'm not comparing the technology of intermittent wipers with the Li-ion technology, just that they could offer it as a Cadillac to help "pay for" the technology.

 

[Aprime]

The Astra is too heavy for a 1.8-liter engine or stellar fuel economy. Mystery solved.

Its power to weight ratio begs to differ.

So try harder.

 

[10819]

John Bulcroft should develop automobiles. Those who agree with him should develop automobiles with him, too. Then, the rest of you can, then, "get it."

 

[supermoto]

Everyone has known for a long time that the long-term trend would be up and up. The only question was when, not if.

That's what everyone said after Katrina. There were so many predictions of how much fuel would be in the next year and the next 3 or 5 years and the year after fuel prices went down. Most people like you have good hindsight and little to no foresight.

The numbers mentioned here are nothing more than speculation. With so many new technologies coming along for alternative fuels, no one with any amount of intelligence would predict where we will be in 5 or 10 years. Those with doom and gloom syndrome will predict how outrageous fuel prices will be without any real knowledge or facts to support their claims.

The world price of crude is not up that much over the past year, it's the dollar losing value that is causing all imported goods to rise in price and all our exported goods to become cheaper overseas. That will not continue and at some point our price for crude will drop in relation to other countries.

 

[vcs2600]

Making cars is all about predicting the future. They need to make a huge capital investment now for something that won't be sold for 3-4 years.

Until I see GM lead a segment of the market rather than follow along years later with me-too products, I'll agree they don't "get it".

 

[HoosierRon]

Here is a good solid conservative scenario everyone should plan on...
$2.85 a gallon in 2007 - fact
$3.50 a gallon in 2008 - fact
$4.00 a gallon in 2009
$5.00 a gallon in 2011
$6.00 a gallon in 2013
$7.00 a gallon in 2015
$10.00 a gallon in 2021
Plan on it or be blindsided, the choice is yours ( and GM's ).

Well, that took all of 4 minutes for that prediction to become outdated. Gasoline ALREADY costs $4-$5 in much of the country. So if GM plans on it not costing that much for 3 years (as stated in your scenario), it would be in trouble.