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VFACTS: Tight at the top as hatchbacks slug it out

Ron Hammerton
3 October 2014
www.goauto.com.au

Toyota's Corolla and its arch-rival, the Mazda3, are running neck and neck in the battle for Australia’s top-selling car crown this year with just three months to go, according to official VFACTS figures.

The Mazda3 triumphed in September, topping the monthly sales tally with 4014 vehicles and moving within a mere 23 units of reigning champ Corolla in year-to-date sales – 33,106 to 33,083 – to set up a last-quarter showdown for 2014 bragging rights.

Last year, the Toyota Corolla went to number one for the first time when it knocked the Mazda3 out of top spot as the latter went into run-out ahead of the all-new model launched in January.

For most of this year, the Toyota small car seemed to have back-to-back crowns in the bag, but the Mazda3 has recently gathered pace.

Both cars are running ahead of last year’s rate, with Mazda3 up 7.5 per cent and Corolla up 3.3 per cent.

In September, the overall market reversed its recent downward trend by rising 2.5 per cent to a healthy 94,978 new vehicles for the month, up 2316 units on the corresponding month last year.

With winners like the Mazda3, Japanese importer Mazda was the big improver, selling 9500 vehicles last month – a rise of 24.8 per cent over the corresponding month last year – to give it second place behind perennial leader Toyota, which shifted 17,880 units (+2.2 per cent).

Fast-growing Jeep also managed a place in the top 10 with a massive 43.4 per cent jump in sales volume over September 2013.

Local manufacturer Holden was the big loser among the market leaders, slipping to fourth place in the monthly sales rankings with an 11.1 per cent decline, to 8551 vehicles.

After a recent surge in sales, Holden’s locally built VF Commodore came off the boil to the tune of 8.8 per cent last month, to 2616 sales.

This placed the Aussie large car fourth on the sales ladder, behind the Mazda3 (4014 units), Toyota Corolla (3893) and Toyota HiLux (3430).

Holden’s other high-volume models – Cruze, Barina and Captiva – all took a hit.

Fellow manufacturer Ford fared even worse, with Blue Oval sales down 17 per cent, to 6227 units.

It was not helped by sales of its locally made Falcon, which slumped by almost half last month, to 467 units, as Ford warms up to release a major facelift of the large car in about two months.

The Thai-built Ranger ute was Ford’s top-selling vehicle, coming sixth in the Australian sales rankings with 2446 units in September, making it the second-best selling light commercial vehicle behind the dominant HiLux.

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Top 10 selling brands for September 2014

Brand Sales Variance %
Toyota 17,880 +2.2
Mazda 9500 +24.8
Hyundai 8804 0.0
Holden 8551 -11.1
Ford 6227 -17.0
Mitsubishi 6066 +1.2
Nissan 6484 -1.3
Volkswagen 4467 0.0
Subaru 3204 +16.4
Jeep 2937 +43.4


Top selling models for September 2014

Model Sales
Mazda Mazda3 4014
Toyota Corolla 3893
Toyota HiLux 3430
Holden Commodore 2616
Hyundai i30 2539
Ford Ranger 2446
Mazda CX-5 2093
Mitsubishi Triton 2029
Hyundai ix35 1802
Holden Cruze 1643

 

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Even though Australians build world class automobiles, just looking at the sales numbers shows it is not feasible to manufacture in Australia.
 

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Holden is going down the gurgler. Pretty fast. Much faster than anticipated.

In 3 years time you can deduct another 3000-3500 from Holden's monthly sales numbers. Holden will become a full vehicle importer with the badge/brand "cachet" on par with Mitsubishi.

Looking at the numbers above I can now fully appreciate why they are half-joking at Fishermans Bend of wrestling it out with Volkswagen in not too distant future.

"Holden to overtake Toyota by 2020, General Motors president Dan Ammann says" - hahaha, somebody didn't read the memo, obviously. Or maybe he means Toyota Home Sewing Machines.

One day GM Holden is going to make the front cover of Harvard Business Review "How to fcuk up a brand and number one market position in no time".


 

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Even though Australians build world class automobiles, just looking at the sales numbers shows it is not feasible to manufacture in Australia.
It in't feasible to manufacture and export in America by that theory. Now your government is due to change to the other brand. Ten years I give it. And mutlinational GM and Ford willl be importing everything from China.

GM and Ford have slowly killed their local manufacturing deliberately. You guys better vote Democrat if you value your local manufacturing industry. Because in Australia, a Tea Party-style radical government has just shown you can kill it off and not even take a hit in the polls. They've done it because they are opposed to government support, and they hate unionised work forces. Australia, they did partly to quell an insignificant deficit of a couple hundred $bill. You guys can't even begin to agree how to start turning your deficit Titanic away from the iceberg........ Sooner or later, you are going to need harsh medicine. The next time the Republicans get in, they will start to facilitate the 'rightshoring' of manufacturing to China and India.

The people who have always hated Holden and Ford are happy, the supporters who are stung by this have moved on. GM and Ford have both let it be known they are happy to close their plants here early, so people smell blood in the water, and people are starting to be hesitant to purchase except for deals. The same thing happened with the Mitsubishi 380. And now, GM will work out. a lot of people bought Captivas, or Cruzes, or Barinas or Colorados because Holden made Commodores here.

GM killed Holden within ten years of Holden being No 1. in the market, with the biggest-selling model in two classes. Holden can't control GM external behaviour , and GM International killed the Astra which occupied the position the 3 and Corolla do today my muffing it's development and then pricing it out of the market. They killed the Commodore by screwing with Zeta and sucking Holden dry of funds. Then killing all the models off VE that were the value-added volume enhancers in the previous models. like the Crewman - loved by the market, AWD variants, loved by the market.

It's like GM took the Silverado, and said to US buyers, look: we know you like the SS, large cab, short cab, large bed, short bed and all the AWD, upper-spec trim options. But these aren't viable and we can't afford to develop them. In future, you can have a 2WD regular cab with V6 or V8 option. We have an imported Colorado over here that still has all these features.....

What do you think that would do to sales, if guys who were used to a restaurant menu of optional configurations could suddenly remember all the options? That's what GM did to Holden. Holden made the first Adventra-style wagon out of a AWD regular station wagon, before Volvo, before Opel, before anyone. The market loved them, even though the launch was screwed up. It was a big $$ vehicle with lots of margin. GM killed it. Thats what is already happening in the US with various models. The beancounters have control of product.
 

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It in't feasible to manufacture and export in America by that theory. Now your government is due to change to the other brand. Ten years I give it. And mutlinational GM and Ford willl be importing everything from China.
the US/north American market has WAY LESS choice then OZ and that the TOP seller sold ONLY 4K units down under which is a far different "environment" then USA where the F150 sells @ 60K per month
 

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"Holden to overtake Toyota by 2020, General Motors president Dan Ammann says"

What a clueless statement that was!!!

He wont care though, as when history proves him wrong, he will have moved on (with a huge handshake no doubt) to the CFO of the http://www.wi.org.nz/
 

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US auto production is in a massive growth spurt, and exports are at an all time high. So yeah, not Australia.
exports are at an all time high, but domestic consumption of US made vehicles is at an all time low. Look at Cadillac. US spent $250 per American on subsidising your car industry through structured bankruptcy; that money isn't there any more, and there is no stomach for extending the indefensible. Your deficit is approaching $18 trillion - if there's a credit crisis due to something like the Chinese building industry imploding as appears likely watch out. TARP and GFC measures were hugely controversial. You think your tinder dry right feels any more warmly towards your auto industry than ours? Tariffs will go first in the name of lower prices, like here. Then it will be 'high wage union jobs' that will be to blame. Without your chicken tax, there is no reason to build pickups in the US. Jeep is importing many vehicles here - a lot of them are not from the US. GM just announced tens of $bill of new plant in China. Writing is on the wall.

Camaro and Mustang are at historic lows and well below viable levels for a standalone - if the export path doesn't pan out, they can both die very easily simply by being allowed to wither with no development. GM as good as said Corvette won't get another gen if sales numbers don't pick up and stay up. Even in things like the big pickups there will be increasing % of parts sourced from o/s or not within the US. That tend will continue.

F150 US sales - Canada sales -Total
2004 939,511 71,790 1,011,301

2005 901,463 69,549 971,012

2006 796,039 72,128 868,167

2007 690,589 73,618 764,207

2008 515,513 67,749 583,262

2009 413,625 81,396 495,021

2010 528,349 97,913 626,262

2011 584,917 96,325 681,242

2012 645,316 106,358 751,674

2013 763,402 122,325 885,727

The demise of the F150 isn't imminent, but these numbers are not going the right way. In a growing market they should have recovered.

Encore from South Korea, Trax from Mexico, Regal from Germany, Envision from?
 

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Mustang is "heritage" vehicle and a protected species, as long as it shares power trains with F150, IRS design with CD4 and and electrical modules from the group, costs are controlled. The cost to develop the '15 from the ashes of the '14 are minimal when compared to GM's Alpha. That's why you're seeing that car as an export in RHD and LHD and no guarantees form GM. There is far more cache world wide with Mustang as a performance car than anything else Ford has, so it makes sense to capatalize on that.

Rather than Camaro as an export, I'd like to see GM focus on Corvette, I think there's a real chance to so something very special with that car.
 

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Rather than Camaro as an export, I'd like to see GM focus on Corvette, I think there's a real chance to so something very special with that car.
Agreed. GM should definitely focus on the Corvette.

Unfortunately GM US just doesn't care about their export markets much. Just like they did a half-arsed effort with the Holden Suburban years ago (handbrake lever in front passengers footwell), this is how much attention they pay to their number 1 European Camaro Market: Germany.



In a country with over half of their autobahns speed unlimited they sell their most representative car with a 200 km/h speedometer. How cheap is that!
 

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"Holden to overtake Toyota by 2020, General Motors president Dan Ammann says"

What a clueless statement that was!!!
No, you're wrong. GM has a multi step plan in place.

Step 1 is to lull Toyota into a false sense of security. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Step 2 is for Holden to overtake Toyota by 2020.

Everything is proceeding according to plan!

See, can't miss!
 

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Mustang is "heritage" vehicle and a protected species, as long as it shares power trains with F150, IRS design with CD4 and and electrical modules from the group, costs are controlled. The cost to develop the '15 from the ashes of the '14 are minimal when compared to GM's Alpha. That's why you're seeing that car as an export in RHD and LHD and no guarantees form GM. There is far more cache world wide with Mustang as a performance car than anything else Ford has, so it makes sense to capatalize on that.

Rather than Camaro as an export, I'd like to see GM focus on Corvette, I think there's a real chance to so something very special with that car.
Nothing is sacrosanct, anymore. F150 sales have reduced from nearly a million in the US in 2004 to just over 750,000 last year. It almost halved during GFC and hasn't come back. The American middle class is disappearing. F150 and Mustang are both products selling mostly to the middle class. Mustang sales have essentially more than halved since it was the only ponycar in town ten years back. Powertrains and electrickery might be shared, but its still expsensive to create a unique 2+2 coupe shell to cope with V8 power that has to pass NHTSA/NCAP. Without drivelines, it's a $bill for the R&D and tooling. And selling in a fashion-conscious market means expensive promotions, marketing and expensive and frequent udates and massaging to maintain competitiveness. And the car has picked up a heap of content while the street price is unable to rise to reflect it, due to competitors.

Ford has bet the farm on their restructure, and it has gone well. But now there is no plan B and no room for passengers. Falcon here was older than Mustang, and probably just as iconic in Australia. They killed it without an afterthought. They will be remarkably unsentimental. Mustang was almost released as a reskinned MX5, which at the last minute due to an outbreak of sanity became the Probe. It nearly was FWD - and if that had happened, probably nearly as dead as the probe. What would happen if they were having this argument over a 95% delivered car today, I wonder? If the F150 aluminium experiment backfires.........

If Mustang fails to fly internationally, it's toast. Same with Corvette - if they don't pick up some more volume from somewhere, not just the current sales blip of the new gen model. Problem is, the traditional market for all these vehicles, F150, Mustang, Corvette, is aging and dying off. And not being replaced. Youngstersjust can't afford many big-engined vehicles, not only to buy but for insurance and running costs. Secretaries today buy Fiestas or cutsie SUVs in the Trax class.

If they changed the Mustang too much for export, they risked alienating the Mustang's US fan base. I don't think they've changed it enough - it is going to struggle outside the US, it's a dinosaur even with the EB motor. Starting at $Au50K - that's a lot of bread.
 

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Once the RWD Commodore has gone GM could be battling with VW for 7th or 8th place if you take out the Commodore numbers, and the Cruze number will also drop a lot if its shipped in from South Korea where Europeans just gave it the elbow because built quality was not all that, sales might be a lot lower than 8th place.

If GM rely just on Opel only for their cars, Holden could be sitting near the very bottom of the Aussie charts. Last 6 months of Opel 989 sales averaged 164 sales per month last year when the Opel plug was pulled.

Opel 2013 average monthly sales of Opel cars the top 3 sellers.
Opel Astra 112 sales per month
Opel Insignia 33 sales per month
Opel Corsa 14 sales per month

Well l guess at least GM won't lose $20 billion like they do on Opel in Europe, with piss poor Aussie Opel 2013 sales like that, if Holden to offer huge discounts to shift the Opels sell them at a huge loss like in the EU, and if you sell next to sweet nothings then you won't accumulate a huge loss, at long last being totally useless pays off for Opel serves GM well, every Opel dark cloud has a silver lining.

Good ole trusty Ranger pick-up has replaced the Falcon as Ford No1 best seller, l expect quite a few Commodore buyers will migrate into the Colorado in the same way without the UTEs in the future.
 

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exports are at an all time high, but domestic consumption of US made vehicles is at an all time low. Look at Cadillac. US spent $250 per American on subsidising your car industry through structured bankruptcy; that money isn't there any more, and there is no stomach for extending the indefensible. Your deficit is approaching $18 trillion - if there's a credit crisis due to something like the Chinese building industry imploding as appears likely watch out. TARP and GFC measures were hugely controversial. You think your tinder dry right feels any more warmly towards your auto industry than ours? Tariffs will go first in the name of lower prices, like here. Then it will be 'high wage union jobs' that will be to blame. Without your chicken tax, there is no reason to build pickups in the US. Jeep is importing many vehicles here - a lot of them are not from the US. GM just announced tens of $bill of new plant in China. Writing is on the wall.

Camaro and Mustang are at historic lows and well below viable levels for a standalone - if the export path doesn't pan out, they can both die very easily simply by being allowed to wither with no development. GM as good as said Corvette won't get another gen if sales numbers don't pick up and stay up. Even in things like the big pickups there will be increasing % of parts sourced from o/s or not within the US. That tend will continue.

F150 US sales - Canada sales -Total
2004 939,511 71,790 1,011,301

2005 901,463 69,549 971,012

2006 796,039 72,128 868,167

2007 690,589 73,618 764,207

2008 515,513 67,749 583,262

2009 413,625 81,396 495,021

2010 528,349 97,913 626,262

2011 584,917 96,325 681,242

2012 645,316 106,358 751,674

2013 763,402 122,325 885,727

The demise of the F150 isn't imminent, but these numbers are not going the right way. In a growing market they should have recovered.

Encore from South Korea, Trax from Mexico, Regal from Germany, Envision from?
Little bird rumour says Holden are gonna take over the Aussie car market with Opel cars?

Aussie Opel 2013 average monthly sales of Opel cars the top 3 sellers.
Opel Astra 112 sales per month
Opel Insignia 33 sales per month
Opel Corsa 14 sales per month

With sales like this, even with heavy discounts on Opel's sold a huge loss in Australia in the future, it won't cost you so much in the future if there is another bailout, GM has got it covered by selling cars Aussies won't want to buy in the future, so not so many loss making cars. Stop your your whining, must be a Pom.

Silverado sales up +54% last month in the US, GM are doing alright on the highly profitable trucks at the moment.
 

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Holden is going down the gurgler. Pretty fast. Much faster than anticipated.

In 3 years time you can deduct another 3000-3500 from Holden's monthly sales numbers. Holden will become a full vehicle importer with the badge/brand "cachet" on par with Mitsubishi.

Looking at the numbers above I can now fully appreciate why they are half-joking at Fishermans Bend of wrestling it out with Volkswagen in not too distant future.

"Holden to overtake Toyota by 2020, General Motors president Dan Ammann says" - hahaha, somebody didn't read the memo, obviously. Or maybe he means Toyota Home Sewing Machines.

One day GM Holden is going to make the front cover of Harvard Business Review "How to fcuk up a brand and number one market position in no time".


Great points

Holden is going to struggle when they are competing against Mazda3 and Corolla without the cache of having the Commodore and when they no longer are the "Home Brand" but the "Betrayal Brand".

Agree that "One day GM Holden is going to make the front cover of Harvard Business Review" but only after GM is on the front cover of Harvard Business Review for how to destroy profitability by actively starving winning brands of product.

Attracting new customers is a goal, actively destroying brands and betraying long time current customers then losing millions of "guaranteed" customers to competitors is unacceptable.
 

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The demise of the F150 isn't imminent, but these numbers are not going the right way. In a growing market they should have recovered.

Encore from South Korea, Trax from Mexico, Regal from Germany, Envision from?
Huh? Your own numbers show the that the F150 has rebounded to pre-GFC levels (at much higher ATPs one should add), so your facts hardly fit your premise. Not to mention cherry picking one vehicle (in a segment highly sensitive to fuel prices) is really a deficient and almost embarrassing argument. Perhaps this holden thing has caused your brain to start to malfunction?

The growth in US auto production is largely non-Big3. X5 from South Carolina, Sonata from Alabama, Camry from Kentucky, etc etc etc.
 

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VFACTS: Tight at the top as hatchbacks slug it out

Ron Hammerton
3 October 2014
www.goauto.com.au



Fast-growing Jeep also managed a place in the top 10 with a massive 43.4 per cent jump in sales volume over September 2013.

Local manufacturer Holden was the big loser among the market leaders, slipping to fourth place in the monthly sales rankings with an 11.1 per cent decline, to 8551 vehicles.

After a recent surge in sales, Holden’s locally built VF Commodore came off the boil to the tune of 8.8 per cent last month, to 2616 sales.

This placed the Aussie large car fourth on the sales ladder, behind the Mazda3 (4014 units), Toyota Corolla (3893) and Toyota HiLux (3430).

Holden’s other high-volume models – Cruze, Barina and Captiva – all took a hit.


Top 10 selling brands for September 2014

Brand Sales Variance %
Toyota 17,880 +2.2
Mazda 9500 +24.8
Hyundai 8804 0.0
Holden 8551 -11.1
Ford 6227 -17.0
Mitsubishi 6066 +1.2
Nissan 6484 -1.3
Volkswagen 4467 0.0
Subaru 3204 +16.4
Jeep 2937 +43.4


Top selling models for September 2014

Model Sales
Mazda Mazda3 4014
Toyota Corolla 3893
Toyota HiLux 3430
Holden Commodore 2616
Hyundai i30 2539
Ford Ranger 2446
Mazda CX-5 2093
Mitsubishi Triton 2029
Hyundai ix35 1802
Holden Cruze 1643
Jeep's success is why I keep saying GM needs to expand GMC's lineup to include competitors to Jeep's Renegade, Compass/Patriot, Cherokee and Grand Cherokee and sell them globally in Buick (China) and Opel/Vauxhall (Europe/Japan/Russia) and add them to Holden's range badged as Holdens.

GMC also must add both the H3 and H3T to it's lineup and the H3/H3T could be produced in Oz for the Autralian/Asia/ASEAN markets since they would be higher priced products with a market "base" in Australia. Holden could "assemble" Canyon trucks from kits that while adding costs would help sell the Holden Canyon vs. HiLux. Yes I said Canyon in place of Colorado since it would use Canyon sheetmetal with a Holden Badge and may or may not retain the Colorado name. Think the name change may help. If not the H3/H3T, then Holden could produce the GMC Envoy (Grand Cherokee) as the Holden Envoy and export it in Kit form to Japan.

It is only a matter of time until Toyota/VW and other automakers create their own "Jeep" brands of CUV/Crossover/SUV's with a few "Premium" models, all while GM starves it's Jeep contender of product and costs GM of tens of billions of dollars in cash.
 

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Little bird rumour says Holden are gonna take over the Aussie car market with Opel cars?

Aussie Opel 2013 average monthly sales of Opel cars the top 3 sellers.
Opel Astra 112 sales per month
Opel Insignia 33 sales per month
Opel Corsa 14 sales per month

With sales like this, even with heavy discounts on Opel's sold a huge loss in Australia in the future, it won't cost you so much in the future if there is another bailout, GM has got it covered by selling cars Aussies won't want to buy in the future, so not so many loss making cars. Stop your your whining, must be a Pom.

Silverado sales up +54% last month in the US, GM are doing alright on the highly profitable trucks at the moment.
Dude just stop. You are embarrassing yourself.
 
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