Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

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Thread: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

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    Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'
    Green Car Reports
    February 11, 2011
    by John Voelcker


    It's always good to hear the arguments against electric cars. Some are valid, some are idiotic, and some simply betray a lack of knowledge about how the auto industry really works.

    Into that last category may go some comments by one William M. Colton, ExxonMobil’s vice president for corporate strategic planning.

    At least 10 years away
    In an interview with The New York Times, he commented that electric-car batteries were "not ready for prime time," that a breakthrough to make electric cars practical wouldn't come for at least 10 years, and that gasoline's much greater energy density meant that buyers would always choose cars with longer ranges.

    In more detail, Colton estimates the cost per kilowatt-hour of electric-car battery packs at $800 to $1,000. That must fall by half or more, he says, before electric cars are practical.

    Well, yes, that may be true for many buyers. But basic research will show that the cost-performance of consumer lithium-ion cells--the ones in your mobile phone or laptop--has fallen 6 to 8 percent a year since the first one was introduced in 1989. Most analysts expect the same for large-format automotive cells.

    2020? We're there
    That means that by 2020, those costs will indeed have fallen by half.

    So, in fact, in just 10 years from last December's launch of such cars as the 2011 Nissan Leaf and 2011 Chevy Volt, electric vehicles could be cost-competitive on purchase price with gasoline cars? (Not to mention the much, much lower cost-per-mile for electrics.)

    Gee, that sounds pretty good to us.

    Colton also neglects to mention that it will take the industry as much as 10 years to get to the point where even 1 or 2 percent of global vehicle production (now roughly 70 million vehicles a year, perhaps 100 million by then) will be electric cars. That's about the same path that hybrid-electric vehicles followed, by the way.

    Full article at link.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    What else the hell will he say I/We embrace electric cars. It's no secret that a business man won't go against his own interests.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    Quote Originally Posted by Tre-Tre View Post
    What else the hell will he say I/We embrace electric cars. It's no secret that a business man won't go against his own interests.
    That's fair enough but I think he would have been better to say nothing at all. To ignore what is happening and to issue statements like this does nothing for his companies image.
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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    Im wondering if they will join the party or become another example like the music, book, and video industry...

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    I need to listen more closely to Bill; he sounds like a completely reliable, unbiased source of information about electric car batteries.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    It sounds to me like he was just saying that electric vehicles won't be mainstream for some time. And he's certainly right about that. Electric vehicles will be niche players in the market for AT LEAST the next 10 years, IMO.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    Quote Originally Posted by jckjds View Post
    It sounds to me like he was just saying that electric vehicles won't be mainstream for some time. And he's certainly right about that. Electric vehicles will be niche players in the market for AT LEAST the next 10 years, IMO.
    That is what I see as well. It sounds like he is being very realistic in terms of the issues which battery tech and electric vehicles will need to over come in order to become mainstream.

    He is also very correct in that engine technology will change and become more efficient in the same time period as battery and electric technology.
    Research is what I am doing when I don't know what I am doing.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    It's better to let people think your an idiot, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverZ View Post
    Im wondering if they will join the party or become another example like the music, book, and video industry...
    Many of the oil companies own the patents for a lot of the battery technology out there so I think they're very much in the game, but I'm sure they're worried about electric cars becoming much more mainstream because there is no real replacement for the sale of gasoline.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    In other news, I averaged 433 miles per gallon in the Chevrolet Volt this week.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    Quote Originally Posted by Buick61 View Post
    In other news, I averaged 433 miles per gallon in the Chevrolet Volt this week.
    I thought it was just a weekend loaner? Did they forget to come and pick it up?

    Any additional thoughts following your first drive review?

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    I don't think electric vehicles will be a viable form of transportation in sparsely populated cold mountains in my lifetime. I don't see electric four wheel drives with good ground clearance in the forseeable future.

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    You know what they are almost right......thing is Chevy has the Volt till they are really ready for prime time.
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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverZ View Post
    Im wondering if they will join the party or become another example like the music, book, and video industry...
    I really hope so! The Oil business if filled with Greedy Pigs!!!!!!!!!!

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    Re: Oil Exec Says Electric-Car Batteries 'Not Ready for Primetime'

    Quote Originally Posted by 5ondi View Post
    I really hope so! The Oil business if filled with Greedy Pigs!!!!!!!!!!
    Other than a few businesses (philanthropy, charities, non-profits and such) what business or industry isn't filled with greedy pigs?
    Research is what I am doing when I don't know what I am doing.

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