See -- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...FY&refer=india
Chinese and Indian crude oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply ``crunch'' as soon as 2015, the International Energy Agency said.
An average field decline of 3.7 percent a year means 12.5 million barrels of new production -- more than the current output of Saudi Arabia -- needs to be added between 2012 and 2015 to counter the drop and meet new demand, the Paris-based adviser to 26 oil importing nations said in its 674-page report.
Even a slight increase in the rate of decline would ``eat up most of the world's current spare oil production capacity,'' the group said. ``Any shortfall in net capacity growth could result in a sharp escalation of prices.''
OPEC's share of world oil production will rise to 52 percent by 2030 from the current 42 percent, the IEA said. So-called non- conventional oil sources, such as extra heavy oils, tar sands and natural gas-to-liquids sources, will quadruple to 8.5 million barrels of oil a day from 1.8 million barrels of oil a day in 2006, the IEA said.
For every $4 invested in oil infrastructure, $3 will be needed to slow declining rates in existing fields, while $1 will go to new production, Birol said.