International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

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Thread: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

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    International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    See -- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...FY&refer=india

    Chinese and Indian crude oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply ``crunch'' as soon as 2015, the International Energy Agency said.

    An average field decline of 3.7 percent a year means 12.5 million barrels of new production -- more than the current output of Saudi Arabia -- needs to be added between 2012 and 2015 to counter the drop and meet new demand, the Paris-based adviser to 26 oil importing nations said in its 674-page report.

    Even a slight increase in the rate of decline would ``eat up most of the world's current spare oil production capacity,'' the group said. ``Any shortfall in net capacity growth could result in a sharp escalation of prices.''

    OPEC's share of world oil production will rise to 52 percent by 2030 from the current 42 percent, the IEA said. So-called non- conventional oil sources, such as extra heavy oils, tar sands and natural gas-to-liquids sources, will quadruple to 8.5 million barrels of oil a day from 1.8 million barrels of oil a day in 2006, the IEA said.



    For every $4 invested in oil infrastructure, $3 will be needed to slow declining rates in existing fields, while $1 will go to new production, Birol said.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline..._iraq_oil.html

    Report: Iraq oil reserves double pre-war estimates
    Iraq's oil reserves could be double the pre-war estimates, which, if true, would make make the country the second largest producer in the world, according to what's being called "the first and only detailed analysis" since the U.S. invasion. Today's Financial Times leads with the report by the consulting firm IHS Inc., which estimates oil reserves at up to 116 billion barrels. That would rank the country No. 3 in the world, behind Iran and Saudi Arabia, the top producer. The firm's Iraq Atlas, to be published May 9, also estimates that Iraq's western desert might hold an additional 100 billion barrels of oil, which, if verified, would push it past Iran as No. 2.

    If violence subsides and security improves, "Iraq's promising oil fields can be tapped for less than $2 a barrel and could double the nation's output to 4 million barrels per day in five years," the trade publication Iran Oil and Gas writes.

    "Iraq's reserves are clearly phenomenal. Once the infrastructure is in place, the oil will come out of the ground quite cheaply," said Ron Mobed, president and chief operating officer of IHS.

    Legislation that grants regional oil autonomy and permits foreign investment will be presented to Iraq's parliament next week. The northern Kurdish region one of the major proven reserves objects to some provisions. The other big reserve is in the Shiite south.

    Sunnis in central and western Iraq fear they won't share in the black-gold windfall. The new projections, however, indicate there are significant oil fields east of Baghdad.



    See above story....Short term supply crunch....Long term.....There may be more oil around then thought. If not, markets will find a way....High price = desire to substitute other sources.....

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    Thumbs down Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    Nice rant, but unfortunately it added nothing to the conversation....

    We are talking about economics...As long as oil, coal, and natural gas make economic sense, we or our economic competitors will burn them (India, China, et al)....

    Pricing is a very effective destroyer of demand......Although oil demand is inelastic in the short run, long term demand rarely is such.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    How about declaring war against the enviro-nazis in this country and........*gasp*.......using our own resources to buoy us (at least a little bit) as we continue to develop & experiment w/alt. energy possibilities???
    When you turn your car on....does it return the favor?

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    I posted this link in the "Suggest a News Article" section, but since the post references the same IAE report, I thought I'd put up it up here as well. The post on Autosavant covers a slightly different angle, which is the imminent spike in gasoline price we're going to get very shortly as the increase in oil prices ripples outward - some of you might find it interesting, and there are some comments there from some of our readers.

    "Gasoline Prices Poised to Jump" - link HERE
    Brendan Moore
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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    All the more reason to develop domestically produced alternative fuels NOW
    "We Probably Could Have Saved Ourselves, But We Were Too Damned Lazy To Try Very Hard......And Too Damn Cheap"

    Kurt Vonnegut

    "You have to live in another reality to comprehend it. I've abandoned attempts at such comprehension long ago."

    Zete GMI Staff Member

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    More reason to buy a Volt. I may be just using coal-based electricity to power my vehicle instead of oil, but I'm guessing its still going to be a hell of a lot cheaper then oil by 2010.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    An awful lot of things can happen between now and 2030 that could affect this one way or another. If we go into a recession, demand might be reduced. There could be massive internal strife in China that could impact its continued economic growth (and its insatiable appetite for oil). Twenty three years ago.....1984....not a whole lot of folks thought the cold war would be ending in a few years. Who onlly knows what will happen....
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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    Quote Originally Posted by GTOobsession View Post
    More reason to buy a Volt. I may be just using coal-based electricity to power my vehicle instead of oil, but I'm guessing its still going to be a hell of a lot cheaper then oil by 2010.
    Coal is more environmentally damaging to burn cheaply than oil. You can burn coal in a more environmentally friendly way - but then it becomes costly.

    I am not overly concerned with coal burning pollution because of global warming. I am concerned with the rising rates of emphysema and asthma, though, and that's why I think clean-burning coal is important.

    But the nice thing is, there is still unbelievable amounts of coal right inside the US. It would be an enormous expense to switch our economy from oil to coal, but it can be done.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    Quote Originally Posted by EldoFan View Post
    How about declaring war against the enviro-nazis in this country and........*gasp*.......using our own resources to buoy us (at least a little bit) as we continue to develop & experiment w/alt. energy possibilities???
    Just to clear the air on this subject. There are two sides to it; the 'enviro-nazis' as you term them and the rest of us who want to keep our money in our own checking accounts. The two have nothing to do with one another.

    What the IEA is reporting is this. If you have a boat - sell it. It's very likely you'll rarely ever have the fuel to use it. If you plan on driving to your vacation spot - do it next year, because as soon as 2015 you may not be allowed to get all the fuel you use now. If you live a long way from work - move.

    On top of that if you now put $50 in your vehicle every 7-10 days plan on it being $75 or more every 7-10 days.

    This has nothing to do with the environment. It has everything to do with money, yours - mine -theirs. Nothing more it's just business. The IEA is a quasi-mouthpiece for the oil producers and owners. Read between the lines: they are explaining how they are going to rape your personal finances.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    Quote Originally Posted by SweC32 View Post
    Nice rant, but unfortunately it added nothing to the conversation....

    We are talking about economics...As long as oil, coal, and natural gas make economic sense, we or our economic competitors will burn them (India, China, et al)....

    Pricing is a very effective destroyer of demand......Although oil demand is inelastic in the short run, long term demand rarely is such.
    You're right, it was a rant. I don't know if it added anything to the conversation other than to point out, however indirectly, that no one in our govt. and no one speaking for GM, is being realistic and honest about the problems facing us. Pretending that we can expect significant oil output from Iraq within the foreseeable future is unrealistic and misleading. This planet is headed for disaster. As Gore points out, it's inconvenient but it's true. Has it rained in Georgia yet? I'm in central Indiana, and the predicted temperature next week, mid-November, is in the 60's.

    Talking about 'foreign investment' in Iraq's oil system means letting the likes of Exxon rip off the Iraq people, and those people know it and that's the reason they haven't agreed to it. I love the way our govt. and media play the game to keep us ignorant. They call it sharing of oil revenue or, even better, sharing of hydrocarbon revenue. I wonder what the price of a barrel of hydrocarbon is today. Here's a link to what's really going on regarding what we want the Iraqis to do with their oil.

    http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/51572/

    And the Volt is going to save GM.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    Quote Originally Posted by PhishPhood View Post
    Read between the lines: they are explaining how they are going to rape your personal finances.
    There's nothing you can do, though. If we try to squeeze them, they'll take their business elsewhere. That's capitalism.

    And while I'm genuinely sorry for everyone that is going to get hammered by the higher energy prices, I think government intervention (price controls or takeovers of the companies) is the worst possible solution. Nobody is going to sink serious money into alternative fuels until they're cost-competitive. Consumers won't make a serious move to fuel efficient cars until the market cost of fuel (not the government) makes the alternatives too costly. Most people won't consider smaller homes, public transit, or energy efficient lifestyles until costs push them there.

    So in a way, I'm glad the oil companies will be making hundreds of billions of dollars in profit. That's the surest way to push the US towards a better environment and energy independence.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    Yeah as soon as there is peace in the Middle East and the West starts using alternative energy in a big way, the price of oil will go back down under $10 a barrel! Which politician is gonna make that happen?!?! ! LOL!!!
    Last edited by Tico; 11-08-2007 at 10:35 AM.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    Quote Originally Posted by Tico View Post
    Yeah as soon as there is peace in the Middle East and the West starts using alternative energy in a big way, the price of oil will go back down under $10 a barrel! Which politician is gonna make that happen?!?! ! LOL!!!
    Shia vs. Sunni.

    Arab vs. Persian

    Arab vs. Kurd

    Arab vs. Jew.

    Muslim vs. Hindu.

    Muslim vs. Christian.

    Iranian Mullahs. Afghan Taliban. al Quaeda.

    No politician is going to bring peace to the Middle East.

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    Re: International Energy Agency Predict Energy Crunch

    What I thought was interesting about the report was that it outlined that the decline of known reserves, combined with rising demand, mean that oil supply will likely be tight for the forseeable future. And, that just keeping up with projected demand will require a massive investment across the globe.

    Keep in mind that, outside Iraq, most mid-east countries do not want foreign investment in their state-owned oil enterprises and, despite their vast wealth, do not have the capital needed to tap into their reserves quickly enough to meet this demand.

    Interestingly, in a "no-crunch" scenerio, the report predicts the inflation-adjusted price for oil in 2030 to be not too far off of where it is now. It's the crunch scenerio -- where demand quickly overtakes supply and the price goes crazy -- that is the concern. Moreover, given the prediction that oil supply will be tight for decades ... it seems unlikely that a "crunch" scenerio will be avoidable. All it will take is a geopolitical or natural disturbance; there won't be enough swing supply to make up the difference and the resulting price shock will have the same kind of economic concequences (or worse) as the '73 oil embargo.

    As the second poster points out, though, this represents a huge opportunity for alternatives to gain market hold.

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