Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

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Thread: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

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    Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist
    Green Car Reports
    John Voelcker
    12/26/2013

    But Thomsen suggests that electric cars are a sufficiently disruptive technology that they will lead to quick behavior changes by consumers in the market for automobiles.

    He uses the example of Nokia as a cautionary tale, noting that less than 10 years ago, that company dominated the world market for mobile phones.

    In June 2007, Apple released its first-generation iPhone, a radical new entry from a company that for three decades had confined itself to personal computers and portable music devices.

    The iPhone was such a radical rethinking of what a phone should be and how it should operate--essentially a small Internet-connected computer, operated via a touchscreen, that also provided voice calls--that it completely reset the market's vision of what a "mobile phone" should be.

    More at link: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/..._campaign=news

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    I was thinking of a couple more appropriate titles for this article:

    1) "Optimist of the year predicts gas cars will be obsolete by 2016" or
    2) "Optimist uses really poor analogy of Smart Phones to predict ICE engine obsolescence by 2016"

    I don't think smart phones are even remotely a good analogy. First they are a lot cheaper than a car. If the phone doesn't work I can still go to the grocery store and work. The phone offered visible and readily understandable benefits (internet anywhere, games anywhere - never to be bored again while waiting in the lobby of the doctors office), already an existing infrastructure of cell towers. And so on.... I'd think if there was such a battery breakthrough that is ready to go into production for 2016 that we'd have already have heard of it.

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    There are just so many types of journey that are totally unsuitable to any form of EV.

    EV's only work for commuting in congested urban areas - very good they are but even there, public transport would be a better answer.

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    I'd be happy to own and purchase an electric car, but some things need to be improved drastically first:

    1. It could only be our 'second' household car, unless something that I cannot see happens to allow it to be driven hundreds and hundreds of miles in a day. What do we do when we take one of our annual family vacations involving driving of over 500 miles in a day?

    2. All weather durability. We live in an area where it is common to have many days over 90 in the summer, yet we get to the single digits in the winter (as does about 2/3s of the population of US and Canada). Will it peform comparably in all conditions.

    3. This is a personal thing, but I do NOT want ultra low-rolling resistance tires. The tires on current hybrids and electrics are designed to squeeze out that extra 2-3% mileage, but can be TERRIBLE in anything about warm and dry conditions.

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    loljk

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    Someone wants some hits.....

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    I'd be more inclined to believe it if we were Volt technology. Perhaps with some options other then the gasoline ICE to generate electricity; fuel cell or smaller diesel. But it sure doesn't look like it's changing the world.
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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist


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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    Until the day I can pull into a charging station, and recharge in the same amount of time it takes me to fill up my gas tank now, I am not buying into that.

    Too many compromises to be had with electrics right now, and the general public is too used to having it easy.
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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    A moron who knows nothing about advantages of electric cars.

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    Perhaps.......iPhones will replace electric cars.


    Yes, I am a "futurist" as well....
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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    I think that's an incredibly aggressive time frame. It's far more likely, give how frequently people buy cars and the time it will take to build charging infrastructure to see a gradual shift over the next 20 years. I actually think the tipping point will be when quick charge time start getting close to a regular gas stop: say 10 minutes or less. Give me a usable 150 mile range and the ability to recharge quickly -- in an affordable vehicle -- and you'll have something. Most people will charge at home for the commute and use fast charging when they need to take a longer trip or have a very busy day.

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    Quote Originally Posted by Z284ever View Post
    Perhaps.......iPhones will replace electric cars.


    Yes, I am a "futurist" as well....
    Think about it. With the internet, you don't need to go ANYWHERE.

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    What a crock of BS this guys story and opinion is. Like BlackGTP says if the tech. was there we would have heard about it. Not enough product, manufacturing capacity, infrastructure, and besides too many people and ICE usage currently to have to switch over to it in the time frame given.

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    Re: Electric Cars So Disruptive, Gas Cars Will Be Obsolete In 2016, Says Futurist

    Quote Originally Posted by poncho1982 View Post
    Until the day I can pull into a charging station, and recharge in the same amount of time it takes me to fill up my gas tank now, I am not buying into that.

    Too many compromises to be had with electrics right now, and the general public is too used to having it easy.
    Here's a different view of the battery swap that Tesla shows on its own website as a workaround to high speed charging. The swap is executed quickly enough for two cars to get battery pack swaps in the time it takes to fuel that Audi. Nonetheless, the idea that gas cars will be obsolete by 2016 is expecting a bit much. One reason is that there is only one company building electric cars that are in a real way up to the task of entirely replacing gasoline. Tesla can only build so many cars, even if they are going to build less expensive ones by then. Of course, it depends on how you define obsolete, as well. Some would argue that Detroit got where it did buy building obsolete cars for a long time. Simple obsolescence doesn't mean that they don't make it anymore.



    It's at the supercharging stations so that it is easier to travel across the country. If it were everywhere, it would be a more than acceptable substitute for gas. Again, infrastructure is still the problem. Electrics will still not be the choice of people who live in apartments or condominiums until there's some thought for residents being able to recharge. I recall asking about this at a complex that just opened in Norfolk, and the young agent commented that the sort of person who'd buy a Volt (the Model S was still in the future) was the sort of person they were targeting as potential residents, meaning someone who was forward thinking.

    My personal ideal would be a building with the parking to the inside of the building, where your parking space would be right outside of the entrance to your unit, so you'd be easily able to park and plug in.

    Of course, developers with that sort of foresight are few...
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