Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

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Thread: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

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    Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Some basic analysis From Oz

    Holden has enjoyed a bit of a boost in sales the past couple of months (up 10% on this time last year) in the face of some of its competition dropping volume. Since January, Holden have sold 56,773 vehicles. However, what the numbers have exposed is that a) Australia still loves it some Commodore and b) it loves it enough that the Commode is nearly 30% (28.81%) of Holden's sales volume with 16,355 sales this year. Essentially, Holden's boost is nearly all thanks to the Commodore which has increased in sales over 50% on this time last year when the VE range was in peak fatigue mode.

    This combined with the locally produced Cruze (with a forgettable chunk of Korean sourced wagons) which sits at 16.57% (9407) of Holden's sales means that over 45% of the cars driven off a Lion lot are Australian made. Not included in that figure are ute and Caprice sales.

    Herein lies the dilemma. In just 3 years time max, Holden's breadwinner will be gone and the next small car to wear a Holden badge hasn't yet been revealed - Cruze and/or Astra?

    If current sales are maintained until 2017 the next best selling Holden after the Commodore is the Colorado ute/truck. The Thai built truck has sold 9467 examples this year and sits at number 11 on the chart, one place in front of the Cruze. However even with these sales, the Colorado is coming 4th in class behind the Hilux, Ranger and Triton. Admittedly the Triton is selling out with some huge discounts due to end of model life deals.

    After the Cruze there is a huge gap until the next chart "star" with the ageing Captiva 7 in 28th position (5561) and then the Holden Barina in 49th spot with just 3548 sales this year.

    How Holden's MD expects Holden to become number 1 once the Commodore is gone is one of life's great mysteries. But if he manages to pull it off, he'll deserve every bit of bonus coming his way.

    Australia's top 50 selling cars in 2014. Source. www.caradvice.com.au


    1. Mazda 3 – 22,524
    2. Toyota Corolla – 22,166
    3. Toyota HiLux – 19,160
    4. Holden Commodore – 16,355
    5. Hyundai i30 – 15,692
    6. Ford Ranger – 13,443
    7. Mitsubishi Triton – 11,838
    8. Mazda CX-5 – 11,006
    9. Volkswagen Golf (including Cabriolet) – 10,736
    10. Toyota Camry – 10,118
    11. Holden Colorado – 9647
    12. Holden Cruze – 9407
    13. Toyota RAV4 – 9327
    14. Hyundai ix35 – 9126
    15. Ford Focus – 8852
    16. Toyota Prado – 8774
    17. Nissan Navara – 8703
    18. Jeep Grand Cherokee – 8610
    19. Hyundai i20 – 7736
    20. Subaru Forester – 6828
    21. Mazda BT50 – 6762
    22. Mazda 2 – 6616
    23. Toyota Yaris – 6573
    24. Nissan X-Trail – 6442
    25. Subaru XV – 5680
    26. Isuzu D-Max – 5607
    27. Nissan Dualis – 5572
    28. Holden Captiva 7 – 5561
    29. Ford Territory – 5079
    30. Nissan Pulsar – 5055
    31. Honda CR-V – 5037
    32. Honda Civic – 4666
    33. Toyota LandCruiser – 4558
    34. Suzuki Swift – 4506
    35. Toyota Kluger – 4414
    36. Mitsubishi Lancer – 4388
    37. Hyundai Elantra – 4352
    38. Mitsubishi Outlander – 4340
    39. Kia Rio – 4305
    40. Mitsubishi ASX – 4115
    41. Volkswagen Amarok – 4082
    42. Mitsubishi Mirage – 3923
    43. Ford Fiesta – 3756
    44. Toyota LandCruiser Ute – 3695
    45. Volkswagen Tiguan – 3679
    46. Mercedes-Benz C-Class (all variants) – 3597
    47. Ford Falcon – 3562
    48. Kia Sportage – 3556
    49. Holden Barina – 3548
    50. Kia Cerato – 3447




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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Looking at that top 50 list pretty much sums it up. The Malibu is a flop and definitely isn't eating much if any of Commodores lunch

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Its sad but the falcon is a better car than what it's position is.

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Quote Originally Posted by Commodoreman2000 View Post
    Looking at that top 50 list pretty much sums it up. The Malibu is a flop and definitely isn't eating much if any of Commodores lunch
    In fairness to Holden (though the Malibu is actually a flop) there is only 1 mid sized sedan on the top 50 list and that's the Camry. Which is again concerning because all assumptions so far are that they'll replace the Commodore with something Impala-esque. And this chart suggests that there isn't any demand for such a car.

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Mazda 6 is current Wheels COTY and I can't see it in the top 50 either.
    Current Holdens.
    VH Commodore Vacationer 253 V8; AH Astra CDX 1.8; VF Calais 3.6V6
    plus U12 Nissan Pintara SuperHatch.
    Previous Holdens.
    69 HT Kingswood 186; 75 HJ Premier 202; 77 TC Gemini; 85 JD Camira SL/E 1.8i; CG06 Captiva LX 3.2V6, CG09 Captiva LX 3.2V6, 2012 VEII Commodore SV6 3.6sidi.

    Keep Holden On.

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Assuming the Commodore is replaced with well anything it would need to be an absolute smash it out of the park knock out because I can't see Holden even staying in the top ten with the cars they have left. Opel offerings will need to be class leading and well priced to get any sort of volume.

    On a motorsport note. If rumors pan out that Ford will use the Mustang for V8's and possible changes allowing 2 doors where does that leave Holden? They could use Camaro (assuming RHD is a given) but that's a Chevy. So I still ultimately see the Holden brand going extinct and becoming Chevrolet.

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Quote Originally Posted by Commodoreman2000 View Post
    Assuming the Commodore is replaced with well anything it would need to be an absolute smash it out of the park knock out because I can't see Holden even staying in the top ten with the cars they have left. Opel offerings will need to be class leading and well priced to get any sort of volume.

    On a motorsport note. If rumors pan out that Ford will use the Mustang for V8's and possible changes allowing 2 doors where does that leave Holden? They could use Camaro (assuming RHD is a given) but that's a Chevy. So I still ultimately see the Holden brand going extinct and becoming Chevrolet.
    I wonder who will pick up the Lions' share of the V8 following? Leaning toward Volvo myself atm. One thing for sure: boo the 'bu!!

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Quote Originally Posted by from oz View Post
    Some basic analysis From Oz



    How Holden's MD expects Holden to become number 1 once the Commodore is gone is one of life's great mysteries. But if he manages to pull it off, he'll deserve every bit of bonus coming his way.





    Maybe the new MD left a '0' off and actually meant they'd actually be number 10?

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Looking at the numbers, it looks like the Commodore is the large car market in AU. But the bulk of the volume is compact cars and small pickups. A really competitive Cruze and Colorado, capable of taking on the Mazda3 and Toyota Hilux, would go a long way at making up the volume Holden will lose in 2017. Add some high margin specialty cars (RHD Camaro, Corvette, CTS) and you might get decent volume and profits. I can understand that, given the existing GM compact and pickups on market, it's hard to imagine the next gen being that competitive.

    What will be interesting is what will happen to the large car market after 2017. Will Commodore sales go to another large car? Or will buyers move on to something else completely? CUVs? Euro sports sedans? What think the natives?

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackCB View Post
    I wonder who will pick up the Lions' share of the V8 following? Leaning toward Volvo myself atm. One thing for sure: boo the 'bu!!
    Which Volvo has a V8?

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    XC90 has one.

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Quote Originally Posted by chinamonty View Post
    XC90 has one.
    Not after this year!

    From now on, all Volvo's will use their new turbo-I4 which will be built in a wide range of power outputs, in both diesel (D1-D6) and petrol (T1-T6) versions, to go into ALL their models.

    Conventional 4wd disappears as well - they'll use an electric motor driving the rear axle on their hybrids, instead.

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Show-Me View Post
    Which Volvo has a V8?
    Scott McLaughlin's #33, that kiwi is seriously quick. Not so sure about Dahlgren's #34, it may have a D5...

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Show-Me View Post
    Which Volvo has a V8?
    The Volvo V8 racecar.

    http://www.v8supercars.com.au/champi...olestar-racing

    I think he was talking about the followers of V8 Supercars.

    Like the V8 Camry in Nascar. Cant buy them at a Toyota dealer either.

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    Re: Holden sales - the Commodore dilemma.

    Unless GM have some secret large rwd sedan that can replace the Commodore and sell in the same numbers Holden wont make the top 10. and yes I don't think such a car exists. It's like everybody has been saying for ages GM doesn't understand the aussie market and doesnt give a **** about it either.
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