VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

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Thread: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

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    GMI Australia Correspondent Premium Member mikmak's Avatar
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    VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    VFACTS: September 2019 new car sales

    03 October 2019

    Scott Collie

    Caradvice.com.au


    The Australian car market suffered its 18th consecutive month of sales decline, dropping 6.9 per cent in September.

    The Australian car market continued to decline in September 2019, with a 6.9 per cent drop in sales making it the 18th consecutive month of decline.

    VFACTS data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) reveal 88,181 vehicles were sold last month, compared to 94,711 during the same month in 2018.

    It's the worst September result since 2011, when 86,819 sales were recorded.


    Year-to-date, the market is sitting on 811,464 registrations, down 7.9 per cent compared to the same point in 2018. Every state and territory has seen its sales slide this year, by as little as 0.8 per cent in Tasmania and as much as 16 per cent in the Northern Territory.

    Sales in two of three categories fell:


    Passenger cars were down by 18.3 per cent
    SUVs were up by 1.1 per cent
    Light commercial vehicles dropped by 5.4 per cent

    Toyota was once again the best-selling brand in Australia, but fell by 12.8 per cent to 15,166 sales in September. It was followed by Mitsubishi, which leapt 17.9 per cent to 8990 registrations on the back of a strong month from the Triton ute and ASX compact SUV.


    Mazda followed in third with 8168 sales, up 15.5 per cent, followed by Hyundai (7245, down 10.7 per cent) and Kia (5128, up 2.5 per cent).

    Mitsubishi, Mazda and Kia were the only three top-10 brands to grow in September.

    Ford followed Kia (4783, down 5.9 per cent), narrowly ahead of Nissan (4651, down 10 per cent), Volkswagen (3816, down 18.7 per cent), Subaru (3502, down 26.4 per cent), and Honda (3404, down 24.8 per cent).

    Holden fell out of the top 10 on the back of its worst sales month since 1948, recording 2863 sales and a 38.4 per cent drop compared to September 2018.


    Much more details at the LINK
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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    it's probably worldwide, not just aussies
    it's coming !

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    is there anything happening down under to drive down "consumer confidence"? OR is it people NOT buying because they don't need to and this is the drop off due to "pull forward" sales

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    The Aussies are the canary’s in the coal mine.

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    There is a cooling of the Aussie market but it appears to be singling out certain segments.

    Most of the falls in sales are due to Aussies moving away from cars (down 18.3%)
    but also, Light Commercials (Trucks and vans) were down 5.4% and SUVs (Utilities)
    up a squeak.

    Sales in two of three categories fell:

    Passenger cars were down by 18.3 per cent
    SUVs were up by 1.1 per cent
    Light commercial vehicles dropped by 5.4 per cent

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    GMI Australia Correspondent Premium Member mikmak's Avatar
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    We've had stagnant wage growth since the mining boom went bust 5 years ago. There is also the recent financial services royal Commission that found banks were being a little free and easy with their cash, so lending practices have been tightened.
    Looking further out into the work force, changes to industrial relations laws have impacted penalty rates for some positions. T There seems to be more casual positions which make it better for the employer (you don't pay people who aren't at work) meaning less risk in down turns, but looking at recent figures, that's mainly in hospitality. I have noticed many roles are now contact positions. That means banks wear the risk, so are less likely to finance contract workers.

    So job security and financial controls are probably the biggest factors imo.
    Last edited by mikmak; 10-09-2019 at 03:39 PM.
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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by mikmak View Post
    We've had stagnant wage growth since the mining boom went bust 5 years ago. There is also the recent financial services royal Commission that found banks were being a little free and easy with their cash, so lending practices have been tightened.
    Looking further out into the work force, changes to industrial relations laws have impacted penalty rates for some positions. T There seems to be more casual positions which make it better for the employer (you don't pay people who aren't at work) meaning less risk in down turns, but looking at recent figures, that's mainly in hospitality. I have noticed many roles are now contact positions. That means banks wear the risk, so are less likely to finance contract workers.

    So job security and financial controls are probably the biggest factors imo.
    Which kind of gels with the idea that cars are in the more affordable
    financing levels, I'm thinking compact and sub-compact cars have
    taken a big hit but also other segments too.

    SUVs and light commercials tend to be more expensive, so perhaps
    those buyers on higher incomes are less affected by the changes
    in income/financing you mentioned.

    I'm staggered at the result for Holden but also, not surprised as
    I've never believed that a diverse portfolio of vehicles adds any
    form of security.

    Ford hangs by Ranger-Everest-Mustang, the rest of its product
    sales is just noise. Yes, Ford is lucky it has Ranger but, it's also
    luck they have made and worked hard to keep.

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by canadian.bacon View Post
    it's probably worldwide, not just aussies
    it's coming !


    What’s coming?

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    Australia is very much an economic outlier, it hasn't had a recession in 26 years, even growing during The Great Recession. It has the highest median wealth per adult in the world. A big part of that growth is thanks to their proximity to Asia, and it may explain some of their issues now since a big part of their economy is tied to services rendered and resource exports to East Asian industry. China also invests HEAVILY in Australian property wealth and resource development.

    A good example is the Auto Industry, although Detroit has stopped making cars there, they are expanding their Australian teams to develop products for Asia. Now multiply that across many industries.
    Last edited by BORG; 10-09-2019 at 05:38 PM.

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    Australia is heavily influenced by commodity trade and confidence of markets, the current instability caused by friction between the USA and China put Australia in a tricky position of both supporting their major defense ally and Asian trading partners. Once USA-China issues are resolves, Australia economy will recover.

    Car sales may recover slightly but I'm betting that most could be replaced by small efficient crossovers,price sensitive segments are taking a battering at the moment.
    Last edited by jpd80; 10-09-2019 at 06:38 PM.

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by canadian.bacon View Post
    it's probably worldwide, not just aussies
    it's coming !
    Not America growth is at all time high,7,000,000.00 million jobs open without people, and wages growing at the fastest rate since WW II, We are cutting red tape and squeezing Chinese commie bolls.. no more piggie bank for foreigners.. I am certain Ausies have followed all WTO rules, but who else in the pacific Rim other than US and Canada does?

    Its time to get leadership over there that puts Australia first.

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by mbukukanyau View Post
    Not America growth is at all time high,7,000,000.00 million jobs open without people, and wages growing at the fastest rate since WW II, We are cutting red tape and squeezing Chinese commie bolls.. no more piggie bank for foreigners.. I am certain Ausies have followed all WTO rules, but who else in the pacific Rim other than US and Canada does?

    Its time to get leadership over there that puts Australia first.
    Although the Aussie government is lead by the Liberal party, it's actually a misnomer as they are very right wing conservative and your president has a lot of time for the current Prime Minister, Scott Morrison who has brought our budgets back into surplus..remember what that used to be?

    It's more a case of we live and die with commodity prices and when there's uncertainty with markets, things turn down but equally, things can recover quickly.

    official interest rates are at a record low, unemployment is low but people haven't seen any wages growth for years....as you guys know prices tend to sneak up and not register on official inflation figures..
    Last edited by jpd80; 10-10-2019 at 12:15 AM.

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by mbukukanyau View Post
    Not America growth is at all time high,7,000,000.00 million jobs open without people, and wages growing at the fastest rate since WW II, We are cutting red tape and squeezing Chinese commie bolls.. no more piggie bank for foreigners.. I am certain Ausies have followed all WTO rules, but who else in the pacific Rim other than US and Canada does?

    Its time to get leadership over there that puts Australia first.
    time will tell...but brand new cars, RVs, boats, cottages are the first things people stop buying when things are tight. All around the cottage country here is a big "for sale" sign! It is not only about 'merica, it is about the whole damn world, stop thinking in a box. Germany is a powerhouse, yet they had 2 quarters in the red already, Canada is not that much better, Aussies already slowed down, gold going up, oil going down..things are not good. China has its slowest growth in more than 17 years and if they stop, we all stop. Your beloved American companies went for the profit and forgot about how powerful they made the Chinese. Cant you see Cadillac and Buick are pretty much alive ONLY because the Chinese buy them? Where is Tesla selling very well? Samsung removed all their device manufacturing out of China. GM trucks arent really selling stellar here and if Cadillac and Buick bring nothing in, GM is tits up with all their electric crap. Imagine how bad that will be for the US. Opel is closing its gates big time in EU, Ford the same.
    And the trade war you speak of, it has brought a lot of grief to the Americans and Canadians . Trump doesn't have them by the balls. At the end of the day, we all pay for it with no good outcome. There is so much you can build in Mexico and China and still sell at US prices while killing the middle class in the US.
    GM strike is another big issues that will add salt to the injury - it will cause many business and people to lose their jobs, truckers, restaurants, parts suppliers, etc.
    Time will tell - the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer.

    But hey, we have Greta to tell us how bad the planet it.

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    The funny thing is that the Aussie market is seeing a drop in cars
    but not being fully replaced by SUVs (Utilities) and pick ups (trucks).

    True that's people being cautious with new vehicle purchase as most
    of those affordable car segments tend to be financed, people are not
    prepared to enter commitment with the gloom of a trade war in the air.

    As I said earlier things can go either way, particularly when the markets
    realize that a bit of rhetoric saber rattling is not the end of the world.

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    Re: VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    Although the Aussie government is lead by the Liberal party, it's actually a misnomer as they are very right wing conservative and your president has a lot of time for the current Prime Minister, Scott Morrison who has brought our budgets back into surplus..remember what that used to be?

    It's more a case of we live and die with commodity prices and when there's uncertainty with markets, things turn down but equally, things can recover quickly.

    official interest rates are at a record low, unemployment is low but people haven't seen any wages growth for years....as you guys know prices tend to sneak up and not register on official inflation figures..
    the biggest effect of the last couple of years has been the exchange rate. Everything we import that we buy in USD is higher in cost in AUD than it was a couple of years ago even though the USD price hasn't changed.

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