GM Inside News Forum banner

VFacts September 2019: Decline Continues

12K views 80 replies 24 participants last post by  Amatressa 
#1 ·
VFACTS: September 2019 new car sales

03 October 2019

Scott Collie

Caradvice.com.au


The Australian car market suffered its 18th consecutive month of sales decline, dropping 6.9 per cent in September.

The Australian car market continued to decline in September 2019, with a 6.9 per cent drop in sales making it the 18th consecutive month of decline.

VFACTS data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) reveal 88,181 vehicles were sold last month, compared to 94,711 during the same month in 2018.

It's the worst September result since 2011, when 86,819 sales were recorded.


Year-to-date, the market is sitting on 811,464 registrations, down 7.9 per cent compared to the same point in 2018. Every state and territory has seen its sales slide this year, by as little as 0.8 per cent in Tasmania and as much as 16 per cent in the Northern Territory.

Sales in two of three categories fell:


Passenger cars were down by 18.3 per cent
SUVs were up by 1.1 per cent
Light commercial vehicles dropped by 5.4 per cent

Toyota was once again the best-selling brand in Australia, but fell by 12.8 per cent to 15,166 sales in September. It was followed by Mitsubishi, which leapt 17.9 per cent to 8990 registrations on the back of a strong month from the Triton ute and ASX compact SUV.


Mazda followed in third with 8168 sales, up 15.5 per cent, followed by Hyundai (7245, down 10.7 per cent) and Kia (5128, up 2.5 per cent).

Mitsubishi, Mazda and Kia were the only three top-10 brands to grow in September.

Ford followed Kia (4783, down 5.9 per cent), narrowly ahead of Nissan (4651, down 10 per cent), Volkswagen (3816, down 18.7 per cent), Subaru (3502, down 26.4 per cent), and Honda (3404, down 24.8 per cent).

Holden fell out of the top 10 on the back of its worst sales month since 1948, recording 2863 sales and a 38.4 per cent drop compared to September 2018.


Much more details at the LINK
 
See less See more
1
#5 ·
There is a cooling of the Aussie market but it appears to be singling out certain segments.

Most of the falls in sales are due to Aussies moving away from cars (down 18.3%)
but also, Light Commercials (Trucks and vans) were down 5.4% and SUVs (Utilities)
up a squeak.

Sales in two of three categories fell:

Passenger cars were down by 18.3 per cent
SUVs were up by 1.1 per cent
Light commercial vehicles dropped by 5.4 per cent
 
#6 · (Edited)
We've had stagnant wage growth since the mining boom went bust 5 years ago. There is also the recent financial services royal Commission that found banks were being a little free and easy with their cash, so lending practices have been tightened.
Looking further out into the work force, changes to industrial relations laws have impacted penalty rates for some positions. T There seems to be more casual positions which make it better for the employer (you don't pay people who aren't at work) meaning less risk in down turns, but looking at recent figures, that's mainly in hospitality. I have noticed many roles are now contact positions. That means banks wear the risk, so are less likely to finance contract workers.

So job security and financial controls are probably the biggest factors imo.
 
#7 ·
Which kind of gels with the idea that cars are in the more affordable
financing levels, I'm thinking compact and sub-compact cars have
taken a big hit but also other segments too.

SUVs and light commercials tend to be more expensive, so perhaps
those buyers on higher incomes are less affected by the changes
in income/financing you mentioned.

I'm staggered at the result for Holden but also, not surprised as
I've never believed that a diverse portfolio of vehicles adds any
form of security.

Ford hangs by Ranger-Everest-Mustang, the rest of its product
sales is just noise. Yes, Ford is lucky it has Ranger but, it's also
luck they have made and worked hard to keep.
 
#9 · (Edited)
Australia is very much an economic outlier, it hasn't had a recession in 26 years, even growing during The Great Recession. It has the highest median wealth per adult in the world. A big part of that growth is thanks to their proximity to Asia, and it may explain some of their issues now since a big part of their economy is tied to services rendered and resource exports to East Asian industry. China also invests HEAVILY in Australian property wealth and resource development.

A good example is the Auto Industry, although Detroit has stopped making cars there, they are expanding their Australian teams to develop products for Asia. Now multiply that across many industries.
 
#10 · (Edited)
Australia is heavily influenced by commodity trade and confidence of markets, the current instability caused by friction between the USA and China put Australia in a tricky position of both supporting their major defense ally and Asian trading partners. Once USA-China issues are resolves, Australia economy will recover.

Car sales may recover slightly but I'm betting that most could be replaced by small efficient crossovers,price sensitive segments are taking a battering at the moment.
 
#14 ·
The funny thing is that the Aussie market is seeing a drop in cars
but not being fully replaced by SUVs (Utilities) and pick ups (trucks).

True that's people being cautious with new vehicle purchase as most
of those affordable car segments tend to be financed, people are not
prepared to enter commitment with the gloom of a trade war in the air.

As I said earlier things can go either way, particularly when the markets
realize that a bit of rhetoric saber rattling is not the end of the world.
 
#34 ·
Overall there is no doubt things could be done better. The fundamental problem right now is confidence. Raise confidence for the future and people will spend. Some external world issues such as Trump and his war on everything non 'merican nothing can be done for in Australia. Other things on the domestic front govco can play a part and do better. Weather you think Brexit is a good thing or a bad thing, I suggest that the whole mess finally looking like it is getting sorted out is a good thing. It has been a bigger farce than the whole Greek loan default thing earlier this decade. Yup the worst did seem to happen (and continues to( but somehow they make it work and the world has moved on. Finalise Brexit and the world will move on (possibly to the UK imploding into a black hole created by a particularly evil dalek or something - this remains to be seen)

AusGovCo is copping a fair old whack about slow wage growth which is fact. No getting away from it - it is fact. They must explain the whole story with this issue better. Ie that is only part of the equation - on the other side, inflation is also relatively low. Income tax cuts don't add any more to the top line of the pay packet but certainly have given most more to spend in their bank accounts (ie who cares weather it's a wage rise or tax cut - the worker ends up with more money which is the aim). Unemployment, whilst up somewhat on early this year is still also relatively low at 5.4% (September 2019) nationally. Note that 'full employment' is considered to be at 4.5%.

Of course there are no end of other examples where things can be done differently or better. It is important to note that many seemingly simple solutions are anything but - do 1 thing and there will be a cost else where which quite often is considered worse in the greater scheme of things.

Will the RBA lowering the cash rate help any further? Sort of, but not how we traditionally think of it. Dropping the rate to what is roughly on par with the rest of the world will help keep the AUS$ low. That helps keep our exports competitive which is good for employment. Of course the yang of this is it also drives up the cost of imports which certainly won't help our struggling retail sector. How do you objectively measure it to determine the greater good?? Dunno - needs somebody way smarter and on a much higher pay grade than me to work that one out!
 
#35 ·
I think this is a case where the RBA needed to stay out and just keep
rates the same as in constant, the last thing business and ordinary
people need is change that causes negative consequences.

Maybe get going with Inland Rail project and more dams for farmers
things that take years to do but stick in the minds of people and
business as improvement to infrastructure for when things get better.
 
#36 ·
The inland rail project should be done and done quickly. It is an infrastructure that will bring results as soon as it is operational. Dams are different. They are no good unless they fill with water and if it rains to fill thee dams then the old ones will be filled too and the need for those new dams is negated. I would prefer to see us planting lots more trees and reducing land clearing. Maybe even an idea about subsidising vegetables would be help. If more people ate vegies then the health costs would go down so the subsidy would be recouped fairly quickly.
The big problem with the RBA reducing rates is that it affects people with savings as well as those who have borrowed. I feel that if you got a mortgage at a certain rate then you shouldn't expect that rate to change frequently. I have noticed that the interest rate on deposits changes a hell of a lot faster than the lending rate does.
 
#38 ·
The inland rail project should be done and done quickly. It is an infrastructure that will bring results as soon as it is operational. Dams are different. They are no good unless they fill with water and if it rains to fill thee dams then the old ones will be filled too and the need for those new dams is negated. I would prefer to see us planting lots more trees and reducing land clearing. Maybe even an idea about subsidising vegetables would be help. If more people ate vegies then the health costs would go down so the subsidy would be recouped fairly quickly.
The big problem with the RBA reducing rates is that it affects people with savings as well as those who have borrowed. I feel that if you got a mortgage at a certain rate then you shouldn't expect that rate to change frequently. I have noticed that the interest rate on deposits changes a hell of a lot faster than the lending rate does.
Until interest rates start to rise then the opposite will be true.
 
#43 · (Edited)
At least Ford is still smiling with great 4x4 sales. Raptor sales have been doing OK but Ford has heard the Aussie performance enthusiasts and let's just say that the next Raptor will more than make up for what has passed....

What Ford has noticed is the growing number of modified XLTs and it
intends capturing more of those accessories as factory fitted packs
like the Wildtrak Plus ($6K of accessory value for $2K)
 
#51 ·
How do you go from 1st to 11th or 12th in 10 years? At some point Holden was expanding, exporting to South Korea and China.

Here is revised look for new models....
Just a Corsa face on Insignia. I believe replacement is due 2022 for Opel.

Where will Buick get its replacement now that Opel is not a part of GM? Sedans are still popular, I think, in the People's Republic of China.
 
#58 · (Edited)
I dont know, I think GM US has been pretty good to Holden recently - Holden just needs car people to steer the ship. Trying to make a Kia Junior is not going to work. If Holden pushed a V8 program for Thai Colorado, they could probably get it approved. The V8 is cheaper to make than the diesel, and they could charge an extra few grand over the diesel whilst also selling significantly more cars. Its the segment busting or segment creating risks thats when Holden shone and was the most profitable. A V8 Colorado would suddenly make the $60k 2.8 litre Hiluxes and 2.0 litre Ranger diesels look very pedestrian.

I just dont think vehicle programs are being pushed. Just feels like Holden has a retail strategy and not a product strategy.
 
#59 · (Edited)
Holden has no customers, they are all inter linked.

A V8 doesn't Fit in Colorado - not without contravening GM's Factory ft engine bay tolerance, otherwise HDT and Walkinshaw would already be doing that.
that and the whole thing would require new crash tests so there's another million bucks.
 
#62 · (Edited)
Good news comes to those that wait, Holden will have a car thats highly profitable that will help them stay a viable concern to sell thats and fun to drive again .

The C8 is the first Corvette available as right-hand drive






The Corvette is going global.


Note: Image above is a flipped version of an original left-hand-drive Corvette C8 official photo.
It took them only 66 years and an eighth generation, but Chevrolet has finally engineered the Corvette with a right-hand-drive layout. The C8 is the very first ‘Vette to come in a RHD setup straight from the factory, which makes it more appealing for those driving on the correct left side of the road.

The fact that it’s available only with an eight-speed, dual-clutch automatic transmission and not a good old manual gearbox made it easier for Chevy to move the steering wheel and just two pedals on the right side during the development phase. The decision to create a right-hand-drive version makes the C8 the first truly global Corvette, although it remains to be seen in which RHD markets the mid-engined supercar is going to be offered.

For what it’s worth, Holden has already confirmed it will sell the car Down Under
. Following the car’s big debut a few hours ago in Tustin, California, Holden’s Chairman and Managing Director, Dave Buttner, declared: “The news that Corvette will now be built in right-hand-drive for the first time ever – and will be exported to Australia – is hugely exciting for our team at Holden and any Australian who loves high performance cars. “

LINK

Great news, it's shame GMC don't go global and RHD with the Canyon & Sierra.
 
#64 ·
I have to wonder what the for traffic will be confronted with. Colorados seem to be the filler of choice with an occasional Trax or Acadia. Even less common Camaros that are too small for most people will be a close price point. I'm excited for the Corvette, but it's not like it's going to drive for traffic for other products. The gap is too wide. Maybe stick a Caddy in there somewhere.
 
#65 ·
Here's another question without notice: of Lansing do work out how to build RHD l, and the CTS make it here (6 or 4) should it be a Caddy or a Holden, and if the latter, what would you call them? Would you dare resurrect a name from the past (Statesman perhaps)
 
#66 · (Edited)
DeVille (without Statesman) perhaps if they want a name. It's a while since it has been used here. I think I would just leave it as a Cadillac CTS or whatever the vehicle is called in the US. I have seen posts on ChinaCarForums of the CT4 and it looks good but really the exterior could have been a Toyota/Lexus/Mazda etx if it had a different grille and badge. It is generic (rather than bland).
I too look forward to seeing Corvettes on the street, especially as the Mustang does nothing for me and there are heaps around but I agree with Mick that it is hardly likely to draw people in to buy other products at the dealership.
 
#67 · (Edited)
I think if they were going to bring in a RWD Caddy, it could be badged as a Calais starting in the high 50s. With Base Commodore maybe continuing in 2.0 turbo front wheel drive form either from Opel or Buick in China.


Otherwise they may create a brand new badge for it (Catera?). From a sales perspective they would be get more milage from a V8 petrol Colorado and a workmate type 2.5 petrol cab chassis Colorado starting around 23k. But a RWD sedan could be the decent anchor product for the rest of the range.
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top