Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to third

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Thread: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to third

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    Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to third

    The Motor Report link

    Couple of interesting points. Holden is aggressively marketing Colorado - that's garnering some sales, but it's still languishing a long way behind HiLux and Ranger. Jumping above Hyundai is because the I30 is on runout (sold a crapload in December) and Holden had a 60% jump in Commodore sales after the releases of the limited Motorsport, Magnum and Director editions. Plus they announced the final day of Commodore production as October 24th, which has given a filip to sales of local vehicles, plus HSV announcing GTS-R. Those all sold out in hours reportedly, so it's a once-off jump.

    February results are likely to see things edge back the other way and when the new I30 arrives Hyunda should leap ahead. January is usually a slow month for vehicles sales, rental market drops off because they stocked up in November and December for the Christmas holidays.

    Astra sales January - 418 units.
    Last edited by BBDOS CV8; 02-11-2017 at 09:23 PM.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Not entirely correct. Commodore numbers were up from SV6 Black edition stocks clearing, plus the last of the 2016 stocks going out the door. The orders you're talking about won't be delivered for months! VFACTS counts registrations, not orders taken. Holden's order bank has grown over the past few months, due to pre-orders of the Commodore and HSV special editions. You'll start to see big numbers from mid-year, as the of the V8's start to be delivered. The first few months of the year will likely be filled with rental/police/fleet orders and a bit of retail, but not a huge amount.

    Astra is struggling big time, we still haven't retailed one and there is zero interest from the public. They continue to bring out these new programs trying to entice buyers to buy them, rather than discounting the metal. They're on the back foot now, I don't think they realised how fickle the Australian market is, which is why they've got these problems. The other issue is the large numbers of Cruze's still on dealers yards still un-sold. All of these were registered in the final months of last year and most dealers care more about clearing these, rather than trying to sell the new Astra.

    Captiva had an exceptional month in January and could have done even better if there was more stock. MY17 vehicles start to arrive this month and this should be the final update. Equinox will only be a 5 seater and I'm hearing that there will be a gap between Captiva production ending and Acadia arrivals, meaning a time with no large SUV volume, on top of a new mid-size SUV just ramping up and local Commodore ending production. I think Holden's volume will be okay until around September/October and then they'll fall into a hole. Equinox is coming out of Mexico, so lead times will be a lot longer than the 3 weeks at present from Korea for the Captiva. The other problem will obviously be price, with the Acadia starting well above what the Captiva currently sells for. Volumes will drop substantially.

    Colorado is going ok, but it will never achieve the volume of the 2016 model unless they start to heavily discount the entry model LS. Gone are the pricepoints and all they seem to care about is selling $50k+ LTZ and Z71 models, which will never achieve high volumes, but is likely a lot better for their profitability. Long term I'm not sure how the Thai factory is going to go, surely it is being highly under-utilised at present.

    Hyundai is another story. It will be interesting to see how they go with the new i30. The previous generation sold well because of cheap pricepoints ($19,990 Auto) and if they do what Holden has and try and launch this model at a premium, they could be in for a shock. The Tucson is a good example of this. It went slowly for a few months, then they started to instantly discount them and introduced a $27,990 driveaway campaign price. I believe the i30 is also being launched with the old drivetrain 2.0lt petrol, which might not score that well in reviews.

    Overall I think Holden's volume will be fairly equal to what last year was, maybe a touch below and they will finish either 3rd or 4th in sales. Next year is when they will have problems....

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Quote Originally Posted by timandhayley View Post
    Not entirely correct. Commodore numbers were up from SV6 Black edition stocks clearing, plus the last of the 2016 stocks going out the door. The orders you're talking about won't be delivered for months! VFACTS counts registrations, not orders taken. Holden's order bank has grown over the past few months, due to pre-orders of the Commodore and HSV special editions. You'll start to see big numbers from mid-year, as the of the V8's start to be delivered. The first few months of the year will likely be filled with rental/police/fleet orders and a bit of retail, but not a huge amount.

    Astra is struggling big time, we still haven't retailed one and there is zero interest from the public. They continue to bring out these new programs trying to entice buyers to buy them, rather than discounting the metal. They're on the back foot now, I don't think they realised how fickle the Australian market is, which is why they've got these problems. The other issue is the large numbers of Cruze's still on dealers yards still un-sold. All of these were registered in the final months of last year and most dealers care more about clearing these, rather than trying to sell the new Astra.

    Captiva had an exceptional month in January and could have done even better if there was more stock. MY17 vehicles start to arrive this month and this should be the final update. Equinox will only be a 5 seater and I'm hearing that there will be a gap between Captiva production ending and Acadia arrivals, meaning a time with no large SUV volume, on top of a new mid-size SUV just ramping up and local Commodore ending production. I think Holden's volume will be okay until around September/October and then they'll fall into a hole. Equinox is coming out of Mexico, so lead times will be a lot longer than the 3 weeks at present from Korea for the Captiva. The other problem will obviously be price, with the Acadia starting well above what the Captiva currently sells for. Volumes will drop substantially.

    Colorado is going ok, but it will never achieve the volume of the 2016 model unless they start to heavily discount the entry model LS. Gone are the pricepoints and all they seem to care about is selling $50k+ LTZ and Z71 models, which will never achieve high volumes, but is likely a lot better for their profitability. Long term I'm not sure how the Thai factory is going to go, surely it is being highly under-utilised at present.

    Hyundai is another story. It will be interesting to see how they go with the new i30. The previous generation sold well because of cheap pricepoints ($19,990 Auto) and if they do what Holden has and try and launch this model at a premium, they could be in for a shock. The Tucson is a good example of this. It went slowly for a few months, then they started to instantly discount them and introduced a $27,990 driveaway campaign price. I believe the i30 is also being launched with the old drivetrain 2.0lt petrol, which might not score that well in reviews.

    Overall I think Holden's volume will be fairly equal to what last year was, maybe a touch below and they will finish either 3rd or 4th in sales. Next year is when they will have problems....
    I've been told there was a surge due to specials and a dead cat bounce the week of the announcement- you're right of course if they're not sold as orders to customers they're not counted as sales. I think Holden counts a customer-delivery order as a sale, regardless of FCAI - same as they count demos as 'sales',

    If the Colorado sales are not sustained across the range and is only the result of the current campaign, and the Astra which should be their most important model at present can't be turned around I think your assessment of volume is optimistic. I'd rather be Hyundai than Holden - of course, any new model is a risk for pricing/positioning but they have momentum, and a head of steam, and a successful runout base. Big gap between Cruze buildout and the model name change makes it hard, as you say - our market is fickle, tons of choice of very smartly-priced vehicles and Astra is a two-time Lazarus as an Opel, and as a Holden and both cases if you bought one you would have been burned with an orphan. I think they should have stuck with Cruze as an import - no Holden badges have much cachet but Cruze had a certain place.

    Astra needs a relaunch with a full model range. Then again, now product, marketing and sales decisions are seemingly being run from GMIO I am not surprised in the slightest - Holden probably has little choice in what Opel will spare and GMIO middleman's cut. I'd say they have zero wiggle room on Astra pricing because that has always been the drawback of Euro sourcing for Ford and Holden. When we bought both 97 and 02 Astras the dealer showed us the invoice price from Holden - there was $600 and $700 profit respectively on the car, before predelivery, any warranty labor; there was desperation to sell us dealer accessories. Both cars had warranty work, I'm betting the dealer made nothing on these cars except servicing.

    I'd say Astra's already at loss leader dealer pricing on the 1.4s.
    Last edited by BBDOS CV8; 02-12-2017 at 12:03 AM.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Timandhayley, what is the plan for dealers to sell Commodores between the October shutdown of the factory and the launch of NG in early 2018? There would be a 4 or 5 month gap there?

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Would Holden keep going and forward build enough inventory of V8 and V6s to get them through?

    Ford still has a few straggler Falcon and utility sales last month but something like 400 territory sales
    and that was with the plant only building 85/day vehicles up to last October, so Imagine what Holden
    can do by going hard right to the finish line...

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    I reckon they'll pile cars in a paddock and be selling them well into 2018 - doesn't matter Port Melbourne closed, I reckon they'll ask dealers for orders and build out half a year's worth. Those will be the real collectors items - a lof of collectible cars the last ones made are worth the most.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Quote Originally Posted by BBDOS CV8 View Post
    I reckon they'll pile cars in a paddock and be selling them well into 2018 - doesn't matter Port Melbourne closed, I reckon they'll ask dealers for orders and build out half a year's worth. Those will be the real collectors items - a lof of collectible cars the last ones made are worth the most.
    The V6s car will probably peter out in January to coincide with NG V6 introduction
    but maybe a cache of V8 cars to carry through for a few months.

    the V6 buyers may actually embrace the new car and wagon, they both look good, absolutely surreal...
    Last edited by jpd80; 02-12-2017 at 01:45 PM.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    The V6s car will probably peter out in January to coincide with NG V6 introduction
    but maybe a cache of V8 cars to carry through for a few months.

    the V6 buyers may actually embrace the new car and wagon, they both look good, absolutely surreal...
    There'll be plenty of LGX engines around - the way GM cars aren't selling there's bound to be six months' worth hanging around at GMPT now, they could simply rearrange production schedules and send to Holden. V8s is actually more of an issue, I think they stopped making LS3s a while back, so there is a finite supply.

    I think we'll actually reach saturation soon anyway, no more updates coming, maybe some sticker packs or options mixes but I think you've seen all the updates they're going to deliver.
    Last edited by BBDOS CV8; 02-12-2017 at 05:16 PM.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    When I bought my Colorado a couple years back it had free servicing and extended warranty. I would not even think about a new one until these deals were on again.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Quote Originally Posted by Ve2Thunder View Post
    When I bought my Colorado a couple years back it had free servicing and extended warranty. I would not even think about a new one until these deals were on again.
    The thing about this is, whether they give you free onroads, free servicing and extended warranty, options packs it all amounts to discounts. Free servicing stretches it out, but it's all money they spend to get you to buy a car. I note that, even Kia who had five years servicing/seven warranty for all new sales now offer neither.

    So what I'm saying is, you have a fixed price you need to charge for a car to make a profit and remain in business, any sweeteners you add amount to a discount. You can't sell your car at perpetual discounts, or make no money. Unless, you're charging way too much in the first place, in which case it's probably uncompetitive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BBDOS CV8 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Ve2Thunder View Post
    When I bought my Colorado a couple years back it had free servicing and extended warranty. I would not even think about a new one until these deals were on again.
    The thing about this is, whether they give you free onroads, free servicing and extended warranty, options packs it all amounts to discounts. Free servicing stretches it out, but it's all money they spend to get you to buy a car. I note that, even Kia who had five years servicing/seven warranty for all new sales now offer neither.

    So what I'm saying is, you have a fixed price you need to charge for a car to make a profit and remain in business, any sweeteners you add amount to a discount. You can't sell your car at perpetual discounts, or make no money. Unless, you're charging way too much in the first place, in which case it's probably uncompetitive.
    Kia still have 7 year unlimited km warranty. That's probably the most important discount, because it's transferable and aids reputation but only costs you if it breaks. More importantly, reliability can be managed and you can offset development costs with know breakdown data.

    On roads are inflexible and return no value to dealership or manufacturer.

    Money on the bonnet is always good because it's tangible and you can make it appear that you are offering more but then screw them on their trade.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Quote Originally Posted by mikmak View Post
    Kia still have 7 year unlimited km warranty. That's probably the most important discount, because it's transferable and aids reputation but only costs you if it breaks. More importantly, reliability can be managed and you can offset development costs with know breakdown data.

    On roads are inflexible and return no value to dealership or manufacturer.

    Money on the bonnet is always good because it's tangible and you can make it appear that you are offering more but then screw them on their trade.
    Ths goes to the psychology of the buyer which has changed over the years.
    Originally, dealers would begin with the chosen trim level and add options to customise, add dealer delivery charges
    and any on road costs. The big sell then was to underscore the discount being given to the buyer, everyone knew
    the dealer would then low ball your trade in to zero out a lot of the discount.

    These days buyers want the complete package all costs and financing included so they can compare one monthly
    payment, free servicing for five years was added because people do not want an uncontrolled cost, they prefer
    to see that cost built into the final single monthly number... it gives dealers nowhere to hide.

    The fact that Hyundai, Kia, Toyota and others are prepared to engage buyers with this one monthly payment
    strategy means that the regognise the value of the return customer, most people engaged this way simply
    default to the same manufacturer at the end of the term, accept the surrender value and fo again.
    Last edited by jpd80; 02-13-2017 at 01:34 PM.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Quote Originally Posted by BBDOS CV8 View Post
    There'll be plenty of LGX engines around - the way GM cars aren't selling there's bound to be six months' worth hanging around at GMPT now, they could simply rearrange production schedules and send to Holden. V8s is actually more of an issue, I think they stopped making LS3s a while back, so there is a finite supply.
    Commodore uses LFX (3.564l) vs the latest revision LGX (3.649l) for Insignia. Melbourne LFX production stockpile should be plenty for VF, including spares/warranty. LFX production continues @ Flint & LGX is made @ Romulus. Gen4 V8 (L77/LS3/LSA) production shifted to Silao years ago. LS3/LSA production won't be ending anytime soon. It's a crate motor cash cow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post

    Ths goes to the psychology of the buyer which has changed over the years.
    Originally, dealers would begin with the chosen trim level and add options to customise, add dealer delivery charges
    and any on road costs. The big sell then was to underscore the discount being given to the buyer, everyone knew
    the dealer would then low ball your trade in to zero out a lot of the discount.

    These days buyers want the complete package all costs and financing included so they can compare one monthly
    payment, free servicing for five years was added because people do not want an uncontrolled cost, they prefer
    to see that cost built into the final single monthly number... it gives dealers nowhere to hide.

    The fact that Hyundai, Kia, Toyota and others are prepared to engage buyers with this one monthly payment
    strategy means that the regognise the value of the return customer, most people engaged this way simply
    default to the same manufacturer at the end of the term, accept the surrender value and fo again.
    I can't stand the let's sit down and right down every little cost and then cross it out and write down the deal price and under line the saving part routine.

    Particularly when the deal is more than our established upper limit. Either you can, or you can't.

    Don't drag me in your office to try and squeeze another $1000 out of me.

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    Re: Australian New Car Sales January - another record start, Holden squeaks back to t

    Quote Originally Posted by steen View Post
    Commodore uses LFX (3.564l) vs the latest revision LGX (3.649l) for Insignia. Melbourne LFX production stockpile should be plenty for VF, including spares/warranty. LFX production continues @ Flint & LGX is made @ Romulus. Gen4 V8 (L77/LS3/LSA) production shifted to Silao years ago. LS3/LSA production won't be ending anytime soon. It's a crate motor cash cow.
    Well, I reckon if that's the case Holden will try to hold a big stockpile of VFs. That will stymie GMIO, who probably has big plans for lots of NG sales......

    If GM sells Opel to PSA, that would still be several years away - but you have to say, uncertain times. You'd have to be worried if you were Holden - PSA would no doubt keep the existing lines at least for present. But it'd remove Holden from the process of next-gen versions.

    I said a couple of years back, if Holden's future was questionable, Opel would have to be next on the chopping block, hasn't turned a profit in near-thirty years, and GM don't need them to develop new models anymore.

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