Inventory - 1 March 2016

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Thread: Inventory - 1 March 2016

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    Inventory - 1 March 2016

    FORD
    C-Max ........................ 6,800 (119) Days
    Fiesta.......................... 23,100 (148 ) Days
    Focus ........................ 52,700 (68) Days
    Fusion ........................ 80,500 (76) Days
    Mustang .................... 33,500 (80) Days
    Taurus ........................ 9,500 (48) Days

    E-series van .............. 8,900 (55) Days
    Edge .......................... 33,500 (65) Days
    Escape........................ 83,800 (84) Days
    Expedition .................. 13,900 (84) Days
    Explorer...................... 40,300 (43) Days
    F series ...................... 277,300 (110) Days
    Flex ............................ 4,000 (41) Days
    Transit ........................ 37,300 (78) Days
    Transit Connect (I) .... 16,500 (130) Days

    LINCOLN
    MKS .......................... 2,000 (80) Days
    MKZ .......................... 8,300 (94) Days

    MKC .......................... 6,900 (95) Days
    MKT .......................... 1,300 (133) Days
    MKX .......................... 10,900 (110) Days
    Navigator.................... 4,500 (113) Days


    GM

    BUICK
    Cascada (I) ................ 1,300 (63) Days
    LaCrosse .................... 8,700 (79) Days
    Regal.......................... 5,200 (78) Days
    Verano........................ 10,400 (81) Days

    Enclave ...................... 13,100 (76) Days
    Encore (I) .................. 18,000 (74) Days

    CADILLAC
    ATS ............................ 7,600 (115) Days
    CTS ............................ 5,500 (90) Days
    ELR ............................ 200 (53) Days
    XTS ............................ 4,800 (64) Days

    Escalade .................... 4,600 (61) Days
    Escalade ESV ............ 3,300 (76) Days
    SRX............................ 12,900 (77) Days

    CHEVROLET
    Camaro ...................... 18,300 (71) Days
    Caprice (I) .................. 300 (101) Days
    Corvette .................... 11,100 (126) Days
    Cruze.......................... 24,800 (46) Days
    Impala ........................ 13,600 (36) Days
    Malibu ........................ 34,100 (38) Days
    Sonic.......................... 15,400 (87) Days
    Spark (I) .................... 9,600 (131) Days
    SS (I) ........................ 1,200 (175) Days
    Volt ............................ 3,600 (77) Days

    Colorado .................... 15,400 (50) Days
    Equinox ...................... 37,800 (46) Days
    Express van................ 17,500 (97) Days
    Silverado .................... 138,600 (77) Days
    Suburban .................. 15,000 (100) Days
    Tahoe ........................ 21,600 (80) Days
    Traverse .................... 21,800 (57) Days
    Trax ............................ 10,700 (53) Days

    GMC
    Acadia ........................ 16,900 (58) Days
    Canyon ...................... 8,100 (80) Days
    Savana van ................ 4,200 (73) Days
    Sierra ........................ 64,200 101) Days
    Terrain ........................ 15,800 (46) Days
    Yukon ........................ 11,600 (92) Days
    Yukon XL .................. 8,600 (91) Days
    Last edited by jpd80; 03-16-2016 at 06:59 AM.

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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    When did GM merge with Lincoln?
    If this table, holds, that's quite a coup for Lincoln.

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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by orville View Post
    When did GM merge with Lincoln?
    If this table, holds, that's quite a coup for Lincoln.
    Sorry Orville, my computer crashed for a while but headings are now in place
    So GM mow has all its brands back....

    Ford and GM seem to be controlling inventory levels well, the stand out I see is F Series
    with 277,300 but disregarding the days supply as pinned to February's figures, that would
    suggest that Ford will be gunning for some BIG sales numbers over spring and summer.

    I'm hearing that Ford dealers have plenty of stock except California which struggles with logistics

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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    Sorry Orville, my computer crashed for a while but headings are now in place
    So GM mow has all its brands back....

    Ford and GM seem to be controlling inventory levels well, the stand out I see is F Series
    with 277,300 but disregarding the days supply as pinned to February's figures, that would
    suggest that Ford will be gunning for some BIG sales numbers over spring and summer.

    I'm hearing that Ford dealers have plenty of stock except California which struggles with logistics
    March being the end of Q1 is typically a pretty big sales month, with favorable weather most of the month, seems like it sets up for some pretty big sales numbers.

    As you state, March inventory, based on February sales, sets-up for some misleading interpretations, but in general it looks like GM was pretty light on several models.
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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    'Lotta Lincolns....
    "The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere the ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity. "

    W.B. Yeats- 1919



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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Incentives are chincy this month. They probably figured everyone will be out blowing tax returns. All the other auto markers, especially Japanese, are doing big discounts and 0% on 16s this month. I don't think GM is going to have a good March. Time will tell.
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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    I get the Malibu being low as they transition to the new model, but what has driven the Impala so low? Are they changing the Cruze over now as well, hence the low inventory?

    first time I've seen the ELR with under 2 years supply Nice to see overall Cadillac's inventory is relatively ok, ATS is high but otherwise the Cadillac inventory seems to be around industry norms.

    And per the comment above, it is nice to see both GM and Ford being disciplined vs. the old approach of running the plants at full capacity and having fire sales.

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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackGTP View Post
    I get the Malibu being low as they transition to the new model, but what has driven the Impala so low? Are they changing the Cruze over now as well, hence the low inventory?

    first time I've seen the ELR with under 2 years supply Nice to see overall Cadillac's inventory is relatively ok, ATS is high but otherwise the Cadillac inventory seems to be around industry norms.

    And per the comment above, it is nice to see both GM and Ford being disciplined vs. the old approach of running the plants at full capacity and having fire sales.

    Without knowing the "splits" the Impala number is meaningless; how many sales last month were New-body vs. W-body? How much inventory is New-body vs. W-body? If W-bodies are built and sold, inventory would be really low, despite being a considerable portion of sales. From what I've been able to piece together Lordstown (Cruze) was down for about 2 months, or more - most of December, all of January and a portion of February. GM appears to be doing a "soft-launch" with the Cruze, I believe they have been making the new one for about a month!?

    SRX is a little high, (for being out of production since January) but they'll blow through them quick, plus gives them time to ramp-up on production & inventory of the XT5.

    Overall Ford seems fat compared to GM, but I think it is GM being light more than Ford being heavy, as March should be a strong month.

    Pure speculation, but knowing how close Ford was to GM in February, and seeing GM's inventory on the lighter side?.................

    Wouldn't that be sumptin'
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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Not looking too good, here.
    The minute that they go heavy with incentives, they're shot.
    85 cars since 1975....
    Good night and good luck.

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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    GM / F

    EO FEB2015 732,394 / 76 / 9637 \\\\\ 603,000 / 80 / 7538

    EO JAN2016 629,878 / 74 / 8512 \\\\\\ 720,000 / 104 / 6923

    EO FEB2016 640,722 /67 / 9563 \\\\\\ 759,000 / 87 / 8724


    Make of it what you will..... lot going on there one way or another, besides the obvious.

    Late Add These ( 'actual') Inventory Volumes and ( future ) Days Supply estimates are taken directly from Ford / GM Pressers or SCCs. The 'daily' sales rates are just simple math.
    Last edited by AMERICA 123; 03-17-2016 at 11:46 AM. Reason: Added Late Add.
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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by AMERICA 123 View Post
    GM / F

    EO FEB2015 732,394 / 76 / 9637 \\\\\ 603,000 / 80 / 7538

    EO JAN2016 629,878 / 74 / 8512 \\\\\\ 720,000 / 104 / 6923

    EO FEB2016 640,722 /67 / 9563 \\\\\\ 759,000 / 87 / 8724


    Make of it what you will..... lot going on there one way or another, besides the obvious.
    Thanks for those figures..A123

    We saw what happened in early 2015 when Ford was way down on F150 inventory, it never really had
    the momentum going in the first half of the year while GM played the Ford game of conservative inventory
    balancing enough supply of Full sized trucks and Utes against lower incentives and saw strong increase in ATPs.
    That was a very intelligent play by GM and the increased "retail" preference is flowing from better perception.

    And then we get to 2016 where GM goes into the year with lower Inventory so as to shorten spring run out of 2016s,
    again all about maximizing return and throughput of sales without compromising ATPs, very disciplined of GM.

    And to Ford, now appearing to do the very opposite and violate toe play book until you realize that going into
    spring and summer, Ford is building inventory to overcome production limitations but... to do that successfully,
    it ahs to make the switch to 2017 models later in the year so it can maximize summer sales and run out the '16s.

    Just my opinion but Ford is running its product way to tight for present market conditions and it shows in it needing
    to play off base a little with high inventory at the start of the year when conventional wisdom is to do the opposite.

    A123,
    I'd love to hear you thoughts on how FCA tackles this issue, do they follow the conventional route with inventory
    or is Ram and Jeep forced to think more outside the box with getting products to customers in quick time..

    Did Ram and Jeep start off in 2009 way below true sales volume and only now realizing true market volume?
    Last edited by jpd80; 03-17-2016 at 12:39 AM.

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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by megeebee View Post
    'Lotta Lincolns....
    That's understandable in the light that the only Lincolns that Ford will acknowledge
    are the MKZ, NKC, MKX and sometimes Navigator.

    MKS is ending as Continental arrives but the trick there is Ford gains production space for Explorer at Chicago
    while Continental replaces Fusion overflow at Flat Rock. Similarly, MKT and Flex production have been reduced
    and the production space given over to more Edge and MKX at Oackville.

    Look at that lot and understand just how secondary Lincoln becomes to a volume constrained Ford.
    Any sign of weakness with a Lincoln product's sales and the other Ford at that plan pick up the slack.
    Why would Ford give a hoot about MKS when it can replace every one of them with high series Explorers.
    Not good for Lincoln but Ford gets its way everytime...

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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Are the selling days calculated on the previous month volume, or an average over a few months?
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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by paul8488 View Post
    Are the selling days calculated on the previous month volume, or an average over a few months?
    Supply figures reported in Automotive News and other industry publications are always based on daily selling rate (DSR) for the previous month. Thus, the March 1, 2016 inventory figures that jpd80 posted were calculated using the DSR numbers for February 2016.
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    Re: Inventory - 1 March 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    Thanks for those figures..A123
    And seriously jdp80, thank you for yours.

    As to the rest.... think..... we really need to see March and maybe April before going too far with some things.

    May seem unusual to say that but then again, we may ( key word "may" ) be in unusual times or at least a Quarter's worth with regard to these topics..

    Furthermore, with the Japanese where they are...... and the usual End of ( their) Fiscal Year upon us... you may pick up some more for March.

    They can get more than a bit squirrelly and aggressive all at the same time with this kind of situation.

    Certain minimum volume performance numbers will be attained or attempted no matter what it takes or does to some other 'numbers'.

    Can be a great time to buy Rice, if you follow.

    If you are not selling Rice, then it can be .... not so much.

    I will say this; not digging how some things are continuing to come together.

    Not at all.
    Last edited by AMERICA 123; 03-17-2016 at 12:04 PM.
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