August forecast to produce third monthly U.S. sales dip of 2016

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Thread: August forecast to produce third monthly U.S. sales dip of 2016

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    August forecast to produce third monthly U.S. sales dip of 2016


    LMC projects sales will slide 5.2 percent in August, with a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 16.8 million. That would be down from a SAAR of 17.86 million in July, the highest this year, and 17.81 million in August 2015.

    Barclays Capital said it expects a 3.6 percent decline in volume and a SAAR of 17.1 million. projects a 2.5 percent sales decline and a SAAR of 17.2 million, while Kelley Blue Book sees volume down 2.1 percent and the SAAR at 17.3 million.

    Automakers report August sales results on Thursday, Sept. 1. August has the same number of selling days as in 2015, but this year it has one fewer weekend, exacerbating the decline analysts are expecting.

    Barclays analyst Brian Johnson reduced his full-year forecast to 17.3 million from his previous projection of 17.6 million. He described the market as being in an “eroding plateau,” with automakers relying slightly more on fleet deliveries and incentives as volumes begin to ebb.

    Edmunds and KBB are more optimistic about the potential for 2016 to beat last year’s sales total of 17.47 million cars and light trucks. KBB said it expects sales to end up between 17.4 million and 17.8 million.

    General Motors and Ford Motor Co. are projected to lose the most market share in August, according to the Barclays, KBB and Edmunds forecasts. They show sales falling more than 5 percent for GM and more than 6 percent for Ford. Edmunds expects Ford sales to tumble 9.8 percent into third place for the month, behind Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A.

    The forecasts show sales down slightly for Toyota and up slightly for American Honda. They are mixed on the outlook for Nissan North America and Hyundai-Kia. Volkswagen Group of America is projected to continue its streak of declines for a 10th consecutive month.

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