Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

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Thread: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

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    Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    This is an interesting approach by John Squire to forecasting what the new Tesla Model 3 will cost.

    I'm not sure many of those who've placed a deposit on one will expect to pay this much or be satisfied with a base model in order to stay with the original price estimate.


    https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=BOqEsCIAXis
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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    I don't see the problem. In fact, I think this video is under-estimating how much some options will cost on the Model 3.

    You can option out a BMW 3-series (M3) to well north of $90K, which is the appropriate comparison for a Model 3 with Ludicrous speed etc. So I expect the Model 3 to top out close to that. Not at $75k.

    But, as the video says, the majority of sales will be reasonably well-equipped in the $40-$50k range. That's not bad at all, given which is where most 3-series and C-class sales are (C-class starts at $40k).

    Yeah, if anyone put a deposit expecting a fully-loaded Model 3 for $35k, they'll be disappointed. But I doubt anyone was expecting that.
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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    The problem will almost certainly be sales volume. As in, not enough of it. Tesla is walking a fine line with the Model 3. They want it to be a volume seller, yet they want to glom onto the Germans and Cadillac for some performance cred. In the end it will boil down to:

    -can Tesla deliver the car at all in realistic numbers and timeframe
    -will buyers in such a broad theoretical price range be happy with their car being based on what is by definition an economy-car platform,
    -will potential buyers be rational or emotional in their approach.

    I really don't see the Model 3 doing much. It dropped too late to catch the big players off guard (hello, Bolt!) and they will not be caught with their pants down twice.

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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    It's a pretty good bet that it'll be in the $80k-$90k range fully loaded.

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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    I think they will keep the starting price of $35K, give or take. Price range seems to matter little for Tesla customers. Speculation is expected, but I would not bet against the 3 doing pretty much everything they claim it will.

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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    Ouch, I'm thinking a lot of people putting a deposit on the Model 3 didn't stop and think that the $35k will be a stripper. I wonder how many will be looking for their deposit back once they realize how much a decently equipped one will cost.

    It is commons sense that the $35k is the base price and it will get a lot more expensive, but with all the hype of the $35k miracle Tesla the fact it was a base price just got buried.

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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackGTP View Post
    Ouch, I'm thinking a lot of people putting a deposit on the Model 3 didn't stop and think that the $35k will be a stripper. I wonder how many will be looking for their deposit back once they realize how much a decently equipped one will cost. ...
    Those are my thoughts exactly. This could backfire on Tesla as the darling of the Climate Crowd.
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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackGTP View Post
    Ouch, I'm thinking a lot of people putting a deposit on the Model 3 didn't stop and think that the $35k will be a stripper. I wonder how many will be looking for their deposit back once they realize how much a decently equipped one will cost.

    It is commons sense that the $35k is the base price and it will get a lot more expensive, but with all the hype of the $35k miracle Tesla the fact it was a base price just got buried.

    Interesting wine holders....
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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    Quote Originally Posted by HumilityWalker View Post
    Price range seems to matter little for Tesla customers.
    $35K-60K people aren't, yet, 'Tesla customers'.
    Otherwise the vast majority of the 400K who put deposits down would've already been driving a Model S or X.

    Price here is a much bigger factor than many are willing to acknowledge.
    Anyone have a guess as to what that 400K number would be if the deposit had been non-refundable??

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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of Doom View Post
    The problem will almost certainly be sales volume. As in, not enough of it. Tesla is walking a fine line with the Model 3. They want it to be a volume seller, yet they want to glom onto the Germans and Cadillac for some performance cred. In the end it will boil down to:

    -can Tesla deliver the car at all in realistic numbers and timeframe
    -will buyers in such a broad theoretical price range be happy with their car being based on what is by definition an economy-car platform,
    -will potential buyers be rational or emotional in their approach.

    I really don't see the Model 3 doing much. It dropped too late to catch the big players off guard (hello, Bolt!) and they will not be caught with their pants down twice.
    You are trying to put traditional car-consumer mentality and apply it to Tesla owners/future-owners, many don't fit that mold.


    Quote Originally Posted by BlackGTP View Post
    Ouch, I'm thinking a lot of people putting a deposit on the Model 3 didn't stop and think that the $35k will be a stripper. I wonder how many will be looking for their deposit back once they realize how much a decently equipped one will cost.

    It is commons sense that the $35k is the base price and it will get a lot more expensive, but with all the hype of the $35k miracle Tesla the fact it was a base price just got buried.

    Interesting wine holders....
    Really hard to say, I wonder what details Tesla has of the people that made deposits; I'm sure they have some understanding of the demographic make-up, which could drive how they ultimately option and price the car. (and how many they think will actually go-through with purchase)


    Quote Originally Posted by 09W View Post
    $35K-60K people aren't, yet, 'Tesla customers'.
    Otherwise the vast majority of the 400K who put deposits down would've already been driving a Model S or X.

    Price here is a much bigger factor than many are willing to acknowledge.
    Anyone have a guess as to what that 400K number would be if the deposit had been non-refundable??
    We don't know, what the make-up is, I'm sure not every deposit owner has the same goal or threshold for "mad-money". Despite being very intrigued with the Volt, when it came out, I would have been one of the least likely person to own one; lets say me and GM "met in the middle".............. Varoom!

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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    I think there are a lot of people that don't understand the Tesla appeal. It is a completely different purchasing model from the mainstream auto manufacturers.

    Also, of course base price is a stripper model. Nobody ever puts out anything listing the fully loaded model first.
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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    I doubt I'd pay any more than 25 or 26 for a loaded Mazda3.
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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Extreme4x4 View Post
    I think there are a lot of people that don't understand the Tesla appeal. It is a completely different purchasing model from the mainstream auto manufacturers. Also, of course base price is a stripper model. Nobody ever puts out anything listing the fully loaded model first.
    Sure, but nobody takes 400K deposits on a vehicle that's not in or readily in production, either.
    That speaks both to your point on the 'Tesla mystique' and to the single tangible fact those depositors made their decision on: a price of "$35K".
    In this 'age of information', it sure would be interesting to see the 'back out' rate of depositors once the 3 comes online & the dealer lot sticker range is established.

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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    Just wait 'till the 'battery pack' and whatever else is possibly relevant / lifetime performance data sinks in - along with replacement costs.

    And what that does for estimated Resale value Curves........... especially for those that want to 'own' long or can at least envision operation and disposition beyond two to three years.

    GM was oh so smart in so so many ways with how they handled the same info with Bolt ........ 'clever' perhaps....

    ----

    Would have been far better for them if they had practiced some serious crawl - walk - run and stayed above eh, 45 / 50k or so or more....with all this but then again, that, or really....'and or that' plus a more conservative approach with 'price' presentation in advance would not have generated all those deposits.....


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    Re: Could Loaded Model 3 Be Priced at Over $75,000?

    Quote Originally Posted by AMERICA 123 View Post
    ... GM was oh so smart in so so many ways with how they handled the same info with Bolt ........ 'clever' perhaps ...
    Yes, and this is going to pay off later for GM, IMHO, whereas Tesla faces a big risk in losing a goodly portion of those depositors unwilling to pay more than about $40-45k. I bet that category constitutes up to 50% of them, maybe more. The rest are the ones that defy "normal" consumer mentality and think Musk is divinity.
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