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Thread: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by emh View Post
    You mean like the US automakers watched dispassionately and "opted in" to fuel-efficient cars in the 70s, 80s, and 90s?
    No, they already have relatively fuel efficient vehicles out there and hybrid versions ready to go if and when required.

    Things don't work that way. You are either leading or falling behind. GM and Ford don't have the luxury of waiting. EVs are coming, Tesla or not. And VW and the Chinese brands are moving very aggressively.
    Things are never as black and white as you imply, Tesla is "leading the charge" but it's coming at one heck of a price for them, the others sitting back does not mean they're idle in development, quite the contrary, they are choosing the entry points and timing that suits. All while Tesla has to do "everything", battery production establish charging grid, make affordable BEVs .....all of that is lots of pressure when you don't have "deep pockets" of a GM or Ford, they have the profit intake to keep funding BEVs until the balance point comes.

    Well, the "majors" have joined: Bolt, I-Pace, e-Tron Quattro, Leaf Plus are all here and are representative of what's coming from others in the near term.
    Those are basically "compliance vehicles" and not really indicative of what's about to drop, Ford's Model E is basically a blue oval Tesla with Mustang styling, use of VW and Rivian as well as Ford's own car and Truck BEV platforms gets Ford in the door at a fraction of Tesla's start up cost....GM is most likely doing the same behind closed doors.
    Last edited by jpd80; 07-19-2019 at 05:46 AM.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by IROCNROL1 View Post
    I was just saying that for me to use an EV for ALL my driving, without compromising as compared to an ICE, the range would have to approach 1000. Could I put up with less? Perhaps, but time is the most precious commodity any of us possess.
    Exactly. Who got time for that weekly gas station stop when your car can be full every morning.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    Why not just buy a Charger? I think there are some goo ddeals out there now! Yes we can!
    Good choice! Dodge Charger is actually a hybrid. It burns gasoline and rubber.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Member17739 View Post
    Exactly. Who got time for that weekly gas station stop when your car can be full every morning.
    Since we're comparing apples to bananas here, then perhaps we agree. Somewhat. I only have to fuel my ICE car every other week. When I get home I turn off the ignition and go inside. Comparing that to daily (or almost daily) plugging in would probably be a tossup, time wise.

    The problem I mentioned in my previous post specifically pertained to long distance trips. 800 to 900 miles one way. I do these numerous times a year. As I said, for this portion of my driving a BEV would indeed be a compromise as compared to an ICE. No way around that. EXCEPT if BEVs did indeed approach 1000 miles between charges. Am I asking for something unrealistic? No. I'm not asking for anything. I only mentioned that it would be great if it happened. I don't expect it to happen and would be pleasantly surprised if it did.
    It sounded pretty good until I actually said it.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    Things are never as black and white as you imply, Tesla is "leading the charge" but it's coming at one heck of a price for them, the others sitting back does not mean they're idle in development, quite the contrary, they are choosing the entry points and timing that suits. All while Tesla has to do "everything", battery production establish charging grid, make affordable BEVs .....all of that is lots of pressure when you don't have "deep pockets" of a GM or Ford, they have the profit intake to keep funding BEVs until the balance point comes.
    Don't underestimate how difficult it is for an established company to pivot to a new technology or a new positioning. It's not because they can't or don't have the technology. It's because they don't have the right mindset. Why was Intel never able to get a foothold on mobile phones? Or Microsoft in mobile OSes? Or Kodak in digital cameras? Or Xerox in digital printers? All of those big companies had the resources to adapt to the new technology. Certainly more so than the newcomers in most, if not all, cases. Most even had the technology ready to go. Or, closer to the topic, why is it so hard for GM, Ford, Nissan etc., and even Toyota, to compete with the likes of Mercedes and BMW despite having far more total volume to spread costs over and resources at their disposal? In all of these cases, it's certainly not for lack of trying.

    I'm not saying EVs will necessarily play out like that. Just that it's not a given that the existing players can and will adapt.

    Those are basically "compliance vehicles" and not really indicative of what's about to drop, Ford's Model E is basically a blue oval Tesla with Mustang styling, use of VW and Rivian as well as Ford's own car and Truck BEV platforms gets Ford in the door at a fraction of Tesla's start up cost....GM is most likely doing the same behind closed doors.
    The I-Pace is not a compliance car. It's Jaguar's highest volume model in the US. Nor is the Bolt. It's available in all states, including ones where there's nothing to comply with. And Audi is very aggressively advertising the e-tron, which you don't see for compliance cars.

    As for Ford's EVs: let's talk when there's something more than vapor.
    Last edited by emh; 07-19-2019 at 11:32 PM.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by emh View Post
    Don't underestimate how difficult it is for an established company to pivot to a new technology or a new positioning. It's not because they can't or don't have the technology. It's because they don't have the right mindset. Why was Intel never able to get a foothold on mobile phones? Or Microsoft in mobile OSes? Or Kodak in digital cameras? Or Xerox in digital printers? All of those big companies had the resources to adapt to the new technology. Certainly more so than the newcomers in most, if not all, cases. Most even had the technology ready to go. Or, closer to the topic, why is it so hard for GM, Ford, Nissan etc., and even Toyota, to compete with the likes of Mercedes and BMW despite having far more total volume to spread costs over and resources at their disposal? In all of these cases, it's certainly not for lack of trying.

    I'm not saying EVs will necessarily play out like that. Just that it's not a given that the existing players can and will adapt.
    Honda in the 1970s is a prime example of how a small, agile, innovative, non-bureaucratized company can do what the big boys can't. How does a destroyer outmaneuver an aircraft carrier?
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by IROCNROL1 View Post
    Since we're comparing apples to bananas here, then perhaps we agree. Somewhat. I only have to fuel my ICE car every other week. When I get home I turn off the ignition and go inside. Comparing that to daily (or almost daily) plugging in would probably be a tossup, time wise.

    The problem I mentioned in my previous post specifically pertained to long distance trips. 800 to 900 miles one way. I do these numerous times a year. As I said, for this portion of my driving a BEV would indeed be a compromise as compared to an ICE. No way around that. EXCEPT if BEVs did indeed approach 1000 miles between charges. Am I asking for something unrealistic? No. I'm not asking for anything. I only mentioned that it would be great if it happened. I don't expect it to happen and would be pleasantly surprised if it did.
    I don't see 1000 mile EVs in our lifetime. IMO, they will never be necessary. Charging network is getting denser every day and recharging time is also steadily dropping. Tesla V3 chargers can charge 180 miles of range in 15 minutes. With all that said, the EV switch is not happening overnight, we are talking 2-3 decades so there will be plenty of choices for everyone's preferences.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    There are two things this discussion did not touch on regarding EVs: if it were an all EV infrastructure, the cost of electricity would skyrocket and the price of petrol would collapse making the ECE a better option. Also, I do not think that the oil companies are going to give up their exitance for a greener future.

    An "all electric future", even if it was feasible, would be at least a quarter a century away. By that time, there could be breakthroughs with ECEs that put out 400 HP and get 60 MPGs while at the same time capturing CO2 emissions.
    Last edited by Coloradokid; 07-20-2019 at 11:45 PM.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Coloradokid View Post
    There are two things this discussion did not touch on regarding EVs: if it were an all EV infrastructure, the cost of electricity would skyrocket and the price of petrol would collapse making the ECE a better option. Also, I do not think that the oil companies are going to give up their exitance for a greener future.

    An "all electric future", even if it was feasible, would be at least a quarter a century away. By that time, there could be breakthroughs with ECEs that put out 400 HP and get 60 MPGs while at the same time capturing CO2 emissions.
    You are correct except for one salient fact. We are now living in the Grand Age of Instant Gratification. Not ours in this particular case but rather that of the powers that be. Automotive companies (perhaps under coercion?) are racing headlong into the fallacy of Zero, Zero, Zero, without bothering to ascertain whether the peons actually want that here and now. Arrogance on a very high level if you ask me.

    I'll now inevitably be labeled a Luddite by some but that's okay. I heartily embrace electricity over petrochemicals for lighting, blenders, toothbrushes, air conditioners, sex toys (especially that one) and a multitude of other conveniences. However, I still prefer old fashioned fuels for ovens and stovetops, bonfires, torpedo heaters, central heating, powering the electric grid, and yes, cars.

    The music industry happily embraced digital recording as it became available but then discovered something surprising. Most all the recording artists complained that it was too clean and sterile. It didn't convey any soul to the music. Imagine that.

    Long live steam!
    It sounded pretty good until I actually said it.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Oh yeah, one more thing. If I ever happen to be executed (wrongly, of course) I would definitely prefer chemicals to electricity. Zzzzzzttttttt!!!! Ouch!
    It sounded pretty good until I actually said it.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    Excellent piece that puts the harsh reality of numbers to the pie-in-the-sky 'lektrik world zerozerozero dreamers. They are not operating in the real world.
    And as Formerly Great Britain's citizens are already sadly discovering, there is an astonishing utter and complete ineptitude--not to mention outright insanity--zooming around (electrically powered no doubt) inside their "leaders'" cranial cavities.

    Just a snapshot of Delusional Disorder gone wild:
    Storing the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil, which weighs 300 pounds, requires 20,000 pounds of Tesla batteries ($200,000 worth).

    · Carrying the energy equivalent of the aviation fuel used by an aircraft flying to Asia would require $60 million worth of Tesla-type batteries weighing five times more than that aircraft.

    · It takes the energy-equivalent of 100 barrels of oil to fabricate a quantity of batteries that can store the energy equivalent of a single barrel of oil.

    · A battery-centric grid and car world means mining gigatons more of the earth to access lithium, copper, nickel, graphite, rare earths, cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of oil and coal both in mining and to fabricate metals and concrete. And in case you’re wondering, China dominates global battery production with its grid 70% coal-fueled. EVs using Chinese batteries will create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing oil-burning engines.
    Great Points

    In other news "Power Blackout hits New York"

    Wonder what you do in a prolonged blackout???

    They are going to happen if we try to up size the grid to the point required and how smart is it to put "All of your Eggs in one basket"??????

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by SierraGS View Post
    Great Points

    In other news "Power Blackout hits New York"

    Wonder what you do in a prolonged blackout???

    They are going to happen if we try to up size the grid to the point required and how smart is it to put "All of your Eggs in one basket"??????
    With the same sort of brains--using the term advisedly--and Central Planning that Venezuela is currently experiencing during its historically unprecedented boom (in poverty, starvation, crime, lawlessness, etc.), I bet we could see some of that same sort of "success." zerozerozero.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Member17739 View Post
    I don't see 1000 mile EVs in our lifetime. IMO, they will never be necessary. Charging network is getting denser every day and recharging time is also steadily dropping. Tesla V3 chargers can charge 180 miles of range in 15 minutes. With all that said, the EV switch is not happening overnight, we are talking 2-3 decades so there will be plenty of choices for everyone's preferences.
    In addition, longer range has a penalty in itself. Whether you need that range or not (on any particular day) you are still weighed down (literally) by that larger battery (and the cost of it too). Just as with an ICE car, a longer range simply means a bigger gas tank. But nobody really needs a 1000 mile range.

    Nobody is going to be driving non-stop for anywhere near 1000 miles. So the problem isn't range, it is the availability of chargers, and the charge time. Both of these are improving, so I think that problem will solve itself.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by SierraGS View Post
    Great Points

    In other news "Power Blackout hits New York"

    Wonder what you do in a prolonged blackout???

    They are going to happen if we try to up size the grid to the point required and how smart is it to put "All of your Eggs in one basket"??????
    In a "prolonged blackout" you can't get gas either.

    Right now, our "eggs are all in one basket" with gasoline.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainDan View Post
    In a "prolonged blackout" you can't get gas either.

    Right now, our "eggs are all in one basket" with gasoline.
    Smart gas stations have generators. Which means $8 gas during a long outage.

    Or do like I did. Buy a surplus gas station tank and bury it in your back yard. Way way way back in back.
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