Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

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Thread: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

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    Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Here PDL AE rant of the week. www.autoextremist.com

    THE BIGGEST BET IN AUTOMOTIVE HISTORY.
    DateTUESDAY, JULY 9, 2019 AT 01:15PM
    By Peter M. DeLorenzo

    Detroit. Back in the fall of ’76, when my misguided experiment at getting into the retail side of the auto business in East Lansing went up in smoke, I realized then that my calling wasn’t dealing with upside-down “ups” and the churn and burn of a high volume auto store that operated on the premise of getting people into new cars, whether they could afford them or not (they usually couldn’t).

    Not only did I not like it, I detested every minute of it. But the parting words to me by the General Manager before he let me go were classic, as he said that “I just marched to a different drummer.” (Truer words were never spoken, by the way. -WG).

    From there my life adventure took me on a wild ride through advertising and ultimately this website, and though I have learned and experienced a lot over the years, I’m still savoring the ride. And why not? There’s still plenty to do and see and experience, and there’s no point sitting on the sidelines waiting for things to happen.

    But as someone who was fortunate enough to witness Detroit’s Golden Age up close and from a front-row seat, it’s no secret that the looming transition to alternative propulsion is cause for a great deal of consternation. Make no mistake, electrified propulsion is cool and all that, but there is something decidedly missing from the equation. Yes, the instantaneous torque is indeed impressive, if the bragging rights of having blistering acceleration is all you’re after, but beyond that, what? There is simply no visceral appeal and no sound and fury. I loved slot cars as a kid, but that was a long time ago.

    The reality for most people is that in the coming transition to fully electric vehicles – unless confined to the urban slog – will only thrive as second vehicles. Yes, if you rumble around the city and that is all you demand from your vehicle you will certainly be able to do just fine with a fully electric vehicle as your only mode of transport. But if you venture out on longer trips, the notion of planning a trip around charging stations is not something that most people are going to want to put up with. Where’s my sense of adventure, you might ask? My sense of adventure is just fine, thank you, but stopping for extended periods of time on a road trip to recharge is not my idea of a good time.

    And during the winter months, the effort to live with a fully-electric vehicle in frigid temperatures - with a reduced range by half - is simply unacceptable. Oh, you haven’t heard about range reduction in the freezing cold? You probably haven’t if you’ve only listened to electric car zealots bragging about the advantages of their vehicles. But make no mistake, in the cold weather parts of this country electric vehicle drivers are in for a rude awakening. Want to use that heater? The range goes down. How about those heated seats and that heated steering wheel, if you ordered those options? The range goes down.

    That’s why I have to shake my head when I hear all of the rosy predictions about the coming Age of Electrification. I see global auto manufacturers dumping hundreds of billions of dollars on electrification, whether forced to by government regulations or in the blue-sky belief that it’s What’s Next, but the realities of this looming transition don’t exactly jibe with these massively aggressive plans. According to a report from the Manhattan Institute by Mark P. Mills, entitled “The New Energy Economy: An Exercise in Magical Thinking” those realities are sobering. In fact, they’re downright ugly. Here are just a few:

    · Hydrocarbons supply over 80% of world energy: If all that were in the form of oil, the barrels would line up from Washington, D.C., to Los Angeles, and that entire line would grow by the height of the Washington Monument every week.
    *sarcasm on, put a tin foil hat in my head, conspiracy theory rant begins*

    If we had used hemp and cannabis for fuel, I wonder how big the value of "rare mineral" then China own and hold for batteries components will be?

    *end of conspiracy theory rant, remove my tin foil hat, sarcasm off*

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Excellent piece that puts the harsh reality of numbers to the pie-in-the-sky 'lektrik world zerozerozero dreamers. They are not operating in the real world.
    And as Formerly Great Britain's citizens are already sadly discovering, there is an astonishing utter and complete ineptitude--not to mention outright insanity--zooming around (electrically powered no doubt) inside their "leaders'" cranial cavities.

    Just a snapshot of Delusional Disorder gone wild:
    Storing the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil, which weighs 300 pounds, requires 20,000 pounds of Tesla batteries ($200,000 worth).

    · Carrying the energy equivalent of the aviation fuel used by an aircraft flying to Asia would require $60 million worth of Tesla-type batteries weighing five times more than that aircraft.

    · It takes the energy-equivalent of 100 barrels of oil to fabricate a quantity of batteries that can store the energy equivalent of a single barrel of oil.

    · A battery-centric grid and car world means mining gigatons more of the earth to access lithium, copper, nickel, graphite, rare earths, cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of oil and coal both in mining and to fabricate metals and concrete. And in case you’re wondering, China dominates global battery production with its grid 70% coal-fueled. EVs using Chinese batteries will create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing oil-burning engines.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    Excellent piece that puts the harsh reality of numbers to the pie-in-the-sky 'lektrik world zerozerozero dreamers. They are not operating in the real world.
    And as Formerly Great Britain's citizens are already sadly discovering, there is an astonishing utter and complete ineptitude--not to mention outright insanity--zooming around (electrically powered no doubt) inside their "leaders'" cranial cavities.

    Just a snapshot of Delusional Disorder gone wild:
    Storing the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil, which weighs 300 pounds, requires 20,000 pounds of Tesla batteries ($200,000 worth).

    · Carrying the energy equivalent of the aviation fuel used by an aircraft flying to Asia would require $60 million worth of Tesla-type batteries weighing five times more than that aircraft.

    · It takes the energy-equivalent of 100 barrels of oil to fabricate a quantity of batteries that can store the energy equivalent of a single barrel of oil.

    · A battery-centric grid and car world means mining gigatons more of the earth to access lithium, copper, nickel, graphite, rare earths, cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of oil and coal both in mining and to fabricate metals and concrete. And in case you’re wondering, China dominates global battery production with its grid 70% coal-fueled. EVs using Chinese batteries will create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing oil-burning engines.
    Once we go "Full EV" the "tree-huggers" will really have something to fight against, imagine a day when they are pushing for the use of "greener" fossil fuels!


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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Another great article from Peter.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Ed753 View Post
    Once we go "Full EV" the "tree-huggers" will really have something to fight against, imagine a day when they are pushing for the use of "greener" fossil fuels!


    Fortunately and sadly, irony (like humor) is completely lost in the folds of their amphibian brains.

    Wish he'd referenced his data. Links, footnotes, whatever they're called now on these newfangled fancy electric talking machines!
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    The reality for most people is that in the coming transition to fully electric vehicles – unless confined to the urban slog – will only thrive as second vehicles. Yes, if you rumble around the city and that is all you demand from your vehicle you will certainly be able to do just fine with a fully electric vehicle as your only mode of transport. But if you venture out on longer trips, the notion of planning a trip around charging stations is not something that most people are going to want to put up with. Where’s my sense of adventure, you might ask? My sense of adventure is just fine, thank you, but stopping for extended periods of time on a road trip to recharge is not my idea of a good time.

    And during the winter months, the effort to live with a fully-electric vehicle in frigid temperatures - with a reduced range by half - is simply unacceptable. Oh, you haven’t heard about range reduction in the freezing cold? You probably haven’t if you’ve only listened to electric car zealots bragging about the advantages of their vehicles. But make no mistake, in the cold weather parts of this country electric vehicle drivers are in for a rude awakening. Want to use that heater? The range goes down. How about those heated seats and that heated steering wheel, if you ordered those options? The range goes down.

    That’s why I have to shake my head when I hear all of the rosy predictions about the coming Age of Electrification. I see global auto manufacturers dumping hundreds of billions of dollars on electrification, whether forced to by government regulations or in the blue-sky belief that it’s What’s Next, but the realities of this looming transition don’t exactly jibe with these massively aggressive plans.
    This is the best part of the thing in this rant and it exactly mirrors what I and several others have been pointing out in various threads on the subject.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    Wish he'd referenced his data. Links, footnotes, whatever they're called now on these newfangled fancy electric talking machines!
    Here's a link to the Manhattan Institute Report that Autoextremist mentioned. The report's author is Mark Mills, a physicist, engineer, and faculty fellow at Northwestern University's McCormick School of Engineering. References are listed in the endnotes on pages 20 - 22.

    https://media4.manhattan-institute.o.../R-0319-MM.pdf
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by gkr778 View Post
    Here's a link to the Manhattan Institute Report that Autoextremist mentioned. The report's author is Mark Mills, a physicist, engineer, and faculty fellow at Northwestern University's McCormick School of Engineering. References are listed in the endnotes on pages 20 - 22.

    https://media4.manhattan-institute.o.../R-0319-MM.pdf
    Thaxx for that, gkr.

    So on one side we have a high-powered intellect who's been on the topic for years, on the other side we have zerozerozero gogreen stop all airplanes, outlaw all IC engines, from people who give a new depth to the term "shallow."
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    Thaxx for that, gkr.

    So on one side we have a high-powered intellect who's been on the topic for years, on the other side we have zerozerozero gogreen stop all airplanes, outlaw all IC engines, from people who give a new depth to the term "shallow."
    So in other words we have AI against AI. Actual Intelligence against Artificial Intelligence.

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by 1958carnut View Post
    So in other words we have AI against AI. Actual Intelligence against Artificial Intelligence.
    Or AI vs AU, Actual Intelligence vs Artificial Unintelligence.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    If electric vehicles ever become the norm, I'm going to invest in tow truck companies.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Yes, if you rumble around the city and that is all you demand from your vehicle you will certainly be able to do just fine with a fully electric vehicle as your only mode of transport. But if you venture out on longer trips, the notion of planning a trip around charging stations is not something that most people are going to want to put up with. Where’s my sense of adventure, you might ask? My sense of adventure is just fine, thank you, but stopping for extended periods of time on a road trip to recharge is not my idea of a good time.
    What a remarkably shortsighted take. Yeah, charging takes a while today, so it must remain that way forever.

    Even today, we have cars with close to 400mi range. That's good enough for most people even for long drives: charge while you stop for a meal or bathroom break every ~4 hours. Plus charging speed is going to be good enough pretty soon even with just incremental changes. Just a year ago, ~100kW fast charging was state of the art (the Bolt launched with 50kW max). Earlier this year, Audi announced the eTron Quattro will charge at up to 150kW and, soon after, Tesla announced the new generation of Superchargers where the Model 3 charges at up to 250kW. Porsche Taycan, when it launches later this year, will charge up to 350kW. And chargers supporting those speeds are already going up.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    So on one side we have a high-powered intellect who's been on the topic for years...
    Who was that in this thread?

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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Quote Originally Posted by 09W View Post
    Who was that in this thread?
    Mark Mills at Manhattan Institute.
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    Re: Autoextremist: the biggest bet in automotive history

    Ah! I was pondering someone calling PDL a 'HPI'.

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