2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

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Thread: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

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    2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    DECEMBER 30, 2019 CARS By TYLER DUFFY

    Tesla revealed its mass-market Model 3 in 2016. The company promised an affordable, $35,000 pre-federal tax credit price tag. Buyers went berserk. Tesla received about 400,000 Model 3 reservations, a number higher than Mercedes’ total U.S. sales in a year.

    The Model 3 launch showed how strong the potential demand was for quality electric vehicles. Tesla’s struggles to meet that demand since highlight how challenging it is to produce an affordable EV. Tesla finally, sort of, got the Model 3 base price down to $35,000 this year, by stripping down the car among other measures.

    We know gasoline is on its way out. We know, at least in the short and intermediate term, electric vehicles will be the replacement. What we’ve been waiting for is the “tipping point.” This will be the point where all manufacturers are bringing EVs to market. Component costs start to come down. Range and charging infrastructure grow to make mass market adoption convenient. The future materializes. We should come close to hitting that tipping point in 2020.

    The luxury market will be a beachhead for EV adoption. Tesla’s success has terrified those companies into action. We’ll see results, beyond the already extant Jaguar I-Pace and Audi e-tron in 2020. Porsche is releasing its Taycan EV for the 2020 model year. Porsche already has doubled its production plans due to high interest and is reevaluating the gasoline future of its best-selling vehicle.

    Volvo and Geely’s electric performance brand Polestar is set to become a thing. The Polestar 1 sports car is due to begin production for the 2020 model year. The company just unveiled the Model 3-battling Polestar 2. Neither will have Volvo’s speed-limiting tech.

    Mercedes (EQC) and BMW (iX3) are launching luxury EV crossovers. Aston Martin is bringing the RapidE, more powerful than the Rapide S V12, to market in 2020. Maserati may finally be (fingers crossed) bringing the Alfieri into production as an EV supercar in 2020 as well. That’s before we get to the stupidly powerful EV hypercars unveiled in Geneva and six-figure classic EV conversions.

    Even the full-sized truck and three-row SUV markets are in for a jolt of electricity. Rivian has a planned 2020 launch for the R1T truck and R1S SUV. If Rivian can meet the price targets, those will be competitive with the top end of those markets. Rivian’s performance will exceed anything in those markets.

    The next and tricky step is having enthusiasm at the top of the market trickle down to the masses. Base-level EVs are relatively affordable. The Nissan Leaf Plus, the Hyundai Kona Electric, and Chevy Volt will offer a 200-plus mile range and a price tag of around $37,500, dropping to $30,000 with the federal tax credit.

    These vehicles do make EVs affordable. But, they don’t provide the same value as internal combustion. The Kona Electric, for instance, is $10,000 more than the base model Kona that gets about 30 mpg combined. It will take years of driving before the fuel savings cover the purchase premium. The same general price point in the gasoline realm will get you an efficient, luxurious Mercedes A-Class.

    2020 should see some developments at the lower end of the EV market. Though the details remain nebulous. Volkswagen has an I.D. crossover and hatchback that should start production by 2020. The hatch may have a base version for less than $30,000 (unclear when VW would start selling the cheaper one). There are also reports of VW entering the market with a super cheap (sub-$23,000) subcompact EV. Mini should be launching an electric version of the Mini Cooper hatch to begin sales in 2020.

    We won’t all be driving EVs by 2020. The best-selling American vehicles will still be three full-sized trucks traveling less than 20 miles on a gallon of gas. But, buyers, particularly on the luxury end, will have a range of EV options. Buying one should feel far more normal than niche.

    https://gearpatrol.com/2019/12/30/20...tipping-point/

    Tesla's success, and oh yeah do-or-die legislation in Europa and copycats in the USA, legislation has nothing to do with the electric revolution does it?

    Remember when diesels were the wave of the future in Europe? Most favored vehicle status, makers were encouraged to build diesels, better MPG, improved emissions. Yup, THE PROMISED LAND.

    How many years did that last? Who can foresee the future, suppose there's a deadly glitch in Electroorgasm Experience that nobody, nobody, could see coming?
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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    The next and tricky step is having enthusiasm at the top of the market trickle down to the masses. Base-level EVs are relatively affordable. The Nissan Leaf Plus, the Hyundai Kona Electric, and Chevy Volt will offer a 200-plus mile range and a price tag of around $37,500, dropping to $30,000 with the federal tax credit.

    These vehicles do make EVs affordable. But, they don’t provide the same value as internal combustion. The Kona Electric, for instance, is $10,000 more than the base model Kona that gets about 30 mpg combined. It will take years of driving before the fuel savings cover the purchase premium. The same general price point in the gasoline realm will get you an efficient, luxurious Mercedes A-Class.

    2020 should see some developments at the lower end of the EV market. Though the details remain nebulous. Volkswagen has an I.D. crossover and hatchback that should start production by 2020. The hatch may have a base version for less than $30,000 (unclear when VW would start selling the cheaper one). There are also reports of VW entering the market with a super cheap (sub-$23,000) subcompact EV. Mini should be launching an electric version of the Mini Cooper hatch to begin sales in 2020.
    This is what I find interesting and a clincher. The economics part of it, the years of driving before reaching a point where it finally pays for the extra expenditure. Most are better off in a regular ICE vehicle still it kind of looks like.

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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Quote Originally Posted by 1958carnut View Post
    This is what I find interesting and a clincher. The economics part of it, the years of driving before reaching a point where it finally pays for the extra expenditure. Most are better off in a regular ICE vehicle still it kind of looks like.
    KIA just leaked its new 'lektrik Soul, they say it'll cost 38 grand. That's about $10,000 more than a loaded turbo. Or to put it another way, it costs 1/3 more.

    Until they get down to a $25,000 electric, they'll be past the reach/interest of people's primary vehicle purchase considerations.

    Tesla is an exception, it's a clique, cult, In Crowd, call it what you like. Fad. When you have a Tesla, people KNOW you have a Tesla. You're cool.
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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    KIA just leaked its new 'lektrik Soul, they say it'll cost 38 grand. That's about $10,000 more than a loaded turbo. Or to put it another way, it costs 1/3 more.

    Until they get down to a $25,000 electric, they'll be past the reach/interest of people's primary vehicle purchase considerations.

    Tesla is an exception, it's a clique, cult, In Crowd, call it what you like. Fad. When you have a Tesla, people KNOW you have a Tesla. You're cool.
    True about Tesla and their owners, but then there's me. I see it as a so what you've got a Tesla, BFD.

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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Quote Originally Posted by 1958carnut View Post
    True about Tesla and their owners, but then there's me. I see it as a so what you've got a Tesla, BFD.
    Me too, fads and cliques don't do it for me. That said, I've never driven a Tesla so maybe I should check some nearby used lots and take one for a spin.

    But as I've said, I can see the utility in a hybrid. An electric is another matter.
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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    >>"We’ll see results, beyond the already extant Jaguar I-Pace and Audi e-tron"<<
    They don't sell. e-tron thru Nov sold 4600 units, barely edging out the A7. A4 moved 24K, A5 moved 20K.
    Any 'tipping point' is NOT when everyone offers an EV, the tipping point is when EVs become a relevant portion of the market. 2% or 4% isn't it. Talk to me when they reach 33%, which at the current pace, will take another 40-50 years.

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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    But as I've said, I can see the utility in a hybrid.
    A lot of automotive consumers join you in that regard. Not suprisingly, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson calculates that mild hybrids will have a predicted compound annual growth rate of 58% in the next five years, while plug-in hybrids will have CAGR of 34%.

    I wonder if GM executives will someday reverse course on their decision last year to cancel all hybrid vehicles?
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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Quote Originally Posted by 1958carnut View Post
    This is what I find interesting and a clincher. The economics part of it, the years of driving before reaching a point where it finally pays for the extra expenditure. Most are better off in a regular ICE vehicle still it kind of looks like.
    I've been saying as much since the Volt came out; the math doesn't work.


    Quote Originally Posted by gkr778 View Post
    A lot of automotive consumers join you in that regard. Not suprisingly, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson calculates that mild hybrids will have a predicted compound annual growth rate of 58% in the next five years, while plug-in hybrids will have CAGR of 34%.

    I wonder if GM executives will someday reverse course on their decision last year to cancel all hybrid vehicles?
    Would be interesting to know, if they are continuing to develop Voltec behind the scenes.

    On one hand, GM needs Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden to win; make gas illegal, or drilling for it in the US illegal, with gas prices at $6.00/gallon the Bolt will make sense, but on the other hand, Truck/SUV Sales and the economy would collapse, and they'd be doomed................
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    The real battlefield for EVs is not the US, not China, it’s Europe and that’s where Tesla is opening its next plant. How and if European brands are able to respond will be the key to all of this.

    Kind of ironic that Tesla will take the EV fight to the euro brands while Detroit watches on with interest.

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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    KIA just leaked its new 'lektrik Soul, they say it'll cost 38 grand. That's about $10,000 more than a loaded turbo. Or to put it another way, it costs 1/3 more.

    Until they get down to a $25,000 electric, they'll be past the reach/interest of people's primary vehicle purchase considerations.

    Tesla is an exception, it's a clique, cult, In Crowd, call it what you like. Fad. When you have a Tesla, people KNOW you have a Tesla. You're cool.

    IMHO Tesla MODEL S WAS WORTH the asking price compared to the competition and MOSTLY THE ONLY EV car WORTH the asking price
    NOW it is old and needing a redesign

    EVERY other EV sells ONLY because they are "green" OR for a NEVER realized fuel cost savings

    the CYBERTRUCK is the ONLY EV coming that has a price somewhat inline with what it is "worth" ASSUMING they hit the claimed pricing AND specs

    35+ K for a econo-box sized 4 seater is TO MUCH MONEY even if it had a caddy shield OR a 3 pointed star on its nose - the substance is NOT there and the LEAF is the WORST offender

    Hyundai Ioniq MK1 being BLOWN OUT for 30K CDN is the CLOSEST NON luxury (read Tesla) EV I have seen that is even "trying" to be "for the masses" and falls short

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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    The EU auto companies are moving rapidly to BEVs for purposes of regulatory compliance - not consumer demand- at least with regard to vehicles manufactured in the EU. It will interesting to see if that affects US consumer's vehicle buying behavior. As many have said on this site it all depends on the value proposition of BEV vehicles.

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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    The company promised an affordable, $35,000 pre-federal tax credit price tag.
    Which they failed to deliver.

    Quote Originally Posted by 1958carnut View Post
    True about Tesla and their owners, but then there's me. I see it as a so what you've got a Tesla, BFD.
    Well, here's your Tesla "luxury" experience:

    https://insideevs.com/news/390505/cd...del-3-failure/

    It'll get fixed when they get around to it, no loaner of any kind offered.
    Better have a spare car, because you're probably gonna need it.

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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Quote Originally Posted by gkr778 View Post
    A lot of automotive consumers join you in that regard. Not suprisingly, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson calculates that mild hybrids will have a predicted compound annual growth rate of 58% in the next five years, while plug-in hybrids will have CAGR of 34%.

    I wonder if GM executives will someday reverse course on their decision last year to cancel all hybrid vehicles?
    THESE GM execs won't, but the people who replace them after they've been fired for taking GM to the brink again, probably will. When The Obvious slaps you in the face enough times, some things become obvious. Even to Mr. Oblivious.

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    The real battlefield for EVs is not the US, not China, it’s Europe and that’s where Tesla is opening its next plant. How and if European brands are able to respond will be the key to all of this.

    Kind of ironic that Tesla will take the EV fight to the euro brands while Detroit watches on with interest.
    Rumpole beat me to the punch. Legislation does not equal "market demand."

    Quote Originally Posted by Rumpole View Post
    The EU auto companies are moving rapidly to BEVs for purposes of regulatory compliance - not consumer demand- at least with regard to vehicles manufactured in the EU. It will interesting to see if that affects US consumer's vehicle buying behavior. As many have said on this site it all depends on the value proposition of BEV vehicles.
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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Maybe the "tipping point" is farther in the future. Doing a bit more reading I saw that Mercedes-Benz is delaying the launch of its EQC BEV crossover in this market for at least one year. I recalled in November or December Roger Penske commented that at his Audi dealerships even in California the Audi’s E-tron BEV sales were very slow because the cars were too expensive. I suspect that MB was tracking this closely and took interest in Penske's statement.

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    Re: 2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point

    Quote Originally Posted by Rumpole View Post
    I'm thinking the "tipping point" is farther in the future. ...
    I, too, am thinking that 2020 is way too soon to be the "tipping point." There needs to be more range, faster recharge times, and more plentiful charging stations or at least the near-future prospects for these things in order for the public to get on board. We're some years away, and who knows where the price of gasoline will be tomorrow. The Middle East is getting stirred up the last couple of days which frankly makes me want to go EV even sooner just to get away from their influence in the world. Approving the Keystone Pipeline was very important to stabilize the oil supply in the U.S. Now, we need to get ready to embrace the next means of vehicular propulsion.
    Last edited by rand49er; 01-03-2020 at 08:11 PM.
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