WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

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Thread: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

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    WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    The Wall Street Journal
    October 23, 2020

    Tesla earned 50 cents a share over the past four quarters, so shares trade at more than 800 times trailing earnings. Its market value approaches $400 billion, or roughly five times the combined value of Ford and General Motors.

    What’s more, those profits are heavily flattered by sales of regulatory credits to help rivals meet emissions mandates. Tesla has booked $1.3 billion in such sales over the past four quarters, which carry a 100% profit margin. Total net income over that period is just $556 million. That profit source might not be available in the years to come as more electric competition from legacy auto makers comes online.

    To have a chance at justifying its valuation, Tesla will need to dominate the auto industry. However, Tesla said achieving its full-year goal of 500,000 global vehicle deliveries has become more difficult, despite its record results. While the company didn’t walk back that goal altogether, it said “further improvements in logistics and delivery efficiency at higher volume levels” are needed to achieve it. By way of reference, GM sold about 660,000 cars in the U.S. in the third quarter alone.

    Meanwhile, updates on several of Mr. Musk’s past proclamations about new products were either absent or vague. Tesla didn’t provide a production timeline for its semi truck or second-generation Roadster sports car, products it unveiled in 2017. Mr. Musk said the pickup truck, which Tesla showed off last fall, might be available by the end of next year “if all goes well.” There was also no update on Mr. Musk’s April 2019 declaration that Tesla could have one million fully self-driving “robotaxis” on the road by the end of this year.

    Fantasies about the future can be far more pleasing than the brutal, competitive nature of the day-to day auto business. For Tesla shareholders, confusing dreams with reality is still likely to prove expensive, eventually.








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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    You are on this site because you have an interest in the automobile industry.

    QUICK: Give me one stunning announcement you remember CEO Musk introducing at Tesla's hugely promoted, next big thing, "Battery Day" a month ago.

    (I draw a blank...something about batteries will be better years from now.)









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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    LOL, people have been doubting Tesla for a while. Eventually they'll get it right.

    If I was an automotive or technology major about to graduate, I'd 100% get in with Tesla. Yea, they're making money on credits but they're also spending a ton building around the world like no other car maker. They're building another huge HQ and plant in Texas and the gigafactory in Germany is taking shape. They're the only ones still expanding it feels like.
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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    “To have a chance at justifying its valuation, Tesla will need to dominate the auto industry.”

    Does anyone on GMI really believe Tesla will “dominate” the industry in say 5 years? I sure don’t, not with everything going on at VW, GM, etc. Could be wrong, we’ll find out.
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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Quote Originally Posted by bballr4567 View Post
    LOL, people have been doubting Tesla for a while. Eventually they'll get it right.

    If I was an automotive or technology major about to graduate, I'd 100% get in with Tesla. Yea, they're making money on credits but they're also spending a ton building around the world like no other car maker. They're building another huge HQ and plant in Texas and the gigafactory in Germany is taking shape. They're the only ones still expanding it feels like.
    Exactly...I don't understand why so many "experts" can't figure this out...they're still in an expansion phase, factories/new product R&D cost $$$ which in turn comes from their revenue which in turn affects their bottom line. Once the factories are completed, those expenses fall off the balance sheet.
    Last edited by sdotjeezy; 10-23-2020 at 09:28 AM.
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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Quote Originally Posted by dannyg View Post
    “To have a chance at justifying its valuation, Tesla will need to dominate the auto industry.”

    Does anyone on GMI really believe Tesla will “dominate” the industry in say 5 years? I sure don’t, not with everything going on at VW, GM, etc. Could be wrong, we’ll find out.
    To think that Tesla is only about cars is a narrow minded view.
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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    To say Tesla is in the automobile business is like saying Verizon is in the telephone business. Neither is true and both use devices to make money off of their services.
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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Quote Originally Posted by sdotjeezy View Post
    Exactly...I don't understand why so many "experts" can't figure this out...they're still in an expansion phase, factories/new product R&D cost $$$ which in turn comes from their revenue which in turn affects their bottom line. Once the factories are completed, those expenses fall off the balance sheet.


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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Quote Originally Posted by Perian View Post
    You are on this site because you have an interest in the automobile industry.

    QUICK: Give me one stunning announcement you remember CEO Musk introducing at Tesla's hugely promoted, next big thing, "Battery Day" a month ago.

    (I draw a blank...something about batteries will be better years from now.)



    .
    the "tabless" design IS A STEP FORWARD and one of those "why has nobody done that before" type of things like NIKE AIR
    at an engineering level it is progress and CAN lead to WAY cheaper finished packs over the "pouch" designs that need a LOT more pack structure to maintain reliability over the long term
    the "tabless" gets cell type to the performance of pouch type and a cell is self contained and very effective at delivering the heat out the ends of the cell into the conductors
    but it is NOT the "end all be all" that kicks Tesla into "domination" position

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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Tesla is still growing and refining its processes. Yes, today they are reliant on the credits, but they've been steadily improving their operations and improving their financial results along with it. As they get less benefit from their credits I expect they will offset with actual profits from their operations. Risky? Yes. Could they fail? Yes. Is the company way overvalued? Yes. But they also have a strong shot at making it.

    Another doom and gloom article cheering on the collapse of an exciting American company. Maybe they'd prefer a nice Chinese electric vehicle. Probably sour that they didn't buy Tesla stock several years ago.

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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackGTP View Post
    Tesla is still growing and refining its processes. Yes, today they are reliant on the credits, but they've been steadily improving their operations and improving their financial results along with it. As they get less benefit from their credits I expect they will offset with actual profits from their operations. Risky? Yes. Could they fail? Yes. Is the company way overvalued? Yes. But they also have a strong shot at making it.

    Another doom and gloom article cheering on the collapse of an exciting American company. Maybe they'd prefer a nice Chinese electric vehicle. Probably sour that they didn't buy Tesla stock several years ago.
    OR they have "FORD OR FCA" futures and want/ NEED petrol to "stay on top" because they invested where the market is not where it is going

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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Quote Originally Posted by bballr4567 View Post
    LOL, people have been doubting Tesla for a while. Eventually they'll get it right.

    If I was an automotive or technology major about to graduate, I'd 100% get in with Tesla. Yea, they're making money on credits but they're also spending a ton building around the world like no other car maker. They're building another huge HQ and plant in Texas and the gigafactory in Germany is taking shape. They're the only ones still expanding it feels like.
    ".....shares trade at more than 800 times trailing earnings."

    To give this some context, here is what other companies stock price would be if they had a similar P/E.

    *actual prices in ( )

    GM $827 ($36)
    IBM $7,182 ($116)
    APPLE $2,613 ($115)
    NETFLIX $4,750 ($488)


    Quote Originally Posted by bballr4567 View Post
    To think that Tesla is only about cars is a narrow minded view.
    Yet the majority of his resources is going into making cars?...................

    "Don't believe your lying eyes"


    Quote Originally Posted by richmond2000 View Post
    OR they have "FORD OR FCA" futures and want/ NEED petrol to "stay on top" because they invested where the market is not where it is going
    What happens when EVERYBODY no-longer needs to buy carbon credits off of Tesla?

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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Quote Originally Posted by Ed753 View Post




    Yet the majority of his resources is going into making cars?...................

    "Don't believe your lying eyes"

    This was a Freudian slip, Telsa and Elon are often thought of as one in the same, because without Elon, what is Tesla?

    A few weeks ago Talking heads on CNBC were talking about Tesla, one of the panelist said something like

    "Elon is masterful, and such a visionary and the reason the sky is the limit for this company"

    Which was quickly followed-up by someone with...........

    "I thought it's valuation was because of their technology, what is Tesla worth without Elon?"

    A pause and awkward stares was quickly filled with, "yes they are, absolutely".



    What is a snake-oil company worth, without its best salesmen, gives you a clearer look at a companies value...........


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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Stop comparing Tesla to Nikola. Tesla has tangible products unlike them. That's an absolute idiotic comparison and you know it.

    The stock market rarely makes sense these days and for Tesla it doesn't. Does it mean that Tesla is a fake company or what people value it at is fake? Probably neither.
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    Re: WSJ: Tesla Update - "Fantasies about the future..."

    Quote Originally Posted by Perian View Post
    You are on this site because you have an interest in the automobile industry.

    QUICK: Give me one stunning announcement you remember CEO Musk introducing at Tesla's hugely promoted, next big thing, "Battery Day" a month ago.

    (I draw a blank...something about batteries will be better years from now.)








    .

    QUICK: Tell me which US vehicle manufacturer has MANY loyal, fanatical owners who rave about their vehicles.

    You’re right - Tesla.

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