Elon's Crystal Ball

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Thread: Elon's Crystal Ball

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    Elon's Crystal Ball

    I think the autonomy is really going to transform automotive. ... I mean since the major innovations in production that Henry Ford and others can up with, the next two massive disruptions for cars are electrification and autonomy, and electrification and autonomy are happening at the same time very basically. So the future will be all electric, all autonomous. I don't mean some electric, some autonomous, I mean all electric, all autonomous. And in fact, I would really caution someone against buying a gasoline or diesel car or truck because it will have poor resale value in the future.

    It will be like—I've made this comment before—but it will be like, let's say it is 100 years ago, 1919, and a lot of people were still buying horses, and there was like this new radical thing called cars. Essentially you have this Model T or whatever, and people are like, "That's weird automobile technology that will never catch on," and they bought a horse, so that was a mistake. So trust me when I say the future is electric autonomy. So you want to buy a car that is electric, and you want to buy a car that is capable of autonomy, which a Tesla is. This will, I think, become very obvious within a few years.

    It will change things quite a lot. If things were autonomous and cars are in use a lot, the fundamental utility of a car is right now is maybe 10 or 12 hours a week. Let's estimate an hour and a half, two hours a day. With a shared autonomous fleet, that goes up to like 50 or 60 hours on average, maybe more. So then the cars will be used a lot more. You'll want probably dynamic personalization, so it's like you step into the car, it knows who you are, it knows everything you want, and the car reconfigures itself automatically to all your preferences. So you could step into any car, and that's how it would be. There won't be a steering wheel in most cars, no pedals. I mean there will still be a small number of cars made for people who still want to drive cars, but it will literally become like horses. People have horses, but it's just not that many people who have horses, and they don't usually go to work with them. They're recreational. So it will be recreational, and cars that you drive manually or by yourself will be 1 percent of all cars, maybe 2.

    Whether you like it or not, this is what's going to happen. But certainly for those that love driving, I don't think they will be prevented from driving, just like those who want to ride a horse, they are not prevented from riding a horse. But it will just be very few people that choose to do that.

    FvH: I also think Model S proved that an electric vehicle can be beautiful and fun to drive and something you desire to own. And I think Tesla will do that with autonomy, as well. So it's not going to be a scary, ugly, dystopian future. It's going to be a fun, beautiful experience. And I think all of our products will have that. And this showed that's possible.


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    The moment vehicles become an appliance like a phone, automakers lose any chance of using the joy of driving to sell / price gouge what used to be the vehicle’s main features, AV is self defeating for most auto companies but like China, they have to do it.

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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    Did Elon Musk return to Earth and borrow Bob Lutz' crystal ball prior to the interview with Motor Trend? Musk's commentary about the "fun, beautiful experience" that awaits the automotive industry seems to echo what Lutz said last November in Automotive News:

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Lutz
    "Unfortunately, I think this is the demise of automotive retailing as we know it.

    Think about it: A horse dealer had a stable of horses of all ages, and you would come in and get the horse that suited you. You'd trade in your old horse and take your new horse home.

    Car dealers will continue to exist as a fringe business for people who want personalized modules or who buy reproduction vintage Ferraris or reproduction Formula 3 cars. Automotive sport — using the cars for fun — will survive, just not on public highways. It will survive in country clubs such as Monticello in New York and Autobahn in Joliet, Ill. It will be the well-to-do, to the amazement of all their friends, who still know how to drive and who will teach their kids how to drive. It is going to be an elitist thing, though there might be public tracks, like public golf courses, where you sign up for a certain car and you go over and have fun for a few hours.

    And like racehorse breeders, there will be manufacturers of race cars and sports cars and off-road vehicles. But it will be a cottage industry.

    Yes, there will be dealers for this, but they will be few and far between. People will be unable to drive the car to the dealership, so dealers will probably all be on these motorsports and off-road dude ranches. It is there where people will be able to buy the car, drive it, get it serviced and get it repainted. In the early days, those tracks may be relatively numerous, but they will decline over time.

    So auto retailing will be OK for the next 10, maybe 15 years as the auto companies make autonomous vehicles that still carry the manufacturer's brand and are still on the highway.

    But dealerships are ultimately doomed. And I think Automotive News is doomed. Car and Driver is done; Road & Track is done. They are all facing a finite future. They'll be replaced by a magazine called Battery and Module read by the big fleets.

    The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, the media surrounding it — all will be gone in 20 years.
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    Techno panic has never been accurate and the real unintended consequences are never revealed in advance (Who would have predicted the consequences of Social Media 5 years ago?). Level 5 autonomy is quite far off, let alone mass adoption. In the interim we really don't know what that's going to look like day to day considering the time scale we're actually looking at, same with electrification. But one thing is for sure, being first is not the same as being right. So far Tesla is the most influential car company since Ford, it is influencing every corner of the auto industry, but it's going to take another 10 years to see where the chips fall and see how history ultimately writes itself.

    Either way, automotive innovation has been incredibly incremental for decades and we are finally at a moment where changes are massive. We are beginning to live in a world where we have the technological equivalents of Laptops driving alongside mechanical typewriters, there is an enormous difference in the technology, but early adoption has its drawbacks and there is room to do better for more people. Don't push the laptop analogy too far, I'm just pointing out that the industry has never seen this type of all-encompassing technological disruption before and I couldn't be more thrilled as a car enthusiast, I was getting very bored. I would argue the tech has reinvigorated the automobile. For how long, who knows, but life finds a way.
    Last edited by BORG; 08-12-2019 at 08:23 PM.

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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    As I drove to work yesterday morning, I stopped behind several other cars at a red light. Opposing traffic had stopped at the light also. As we sat there, I noted how nearly a couple of minutes went by without one single car passing through the light on the green, the traffic that we had supposedly been stopped for. I enjoy driving ... immensely so. But, I also hate wasting time, and autonomous "appliances" will lessen this time waste ... immensely. This is coming. It's inevitable.
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by rand49er View Post
    As I drove to work yesterday morning, I stopped behind several other cars at a red light. Opposing traffic had stopped at the light also. As we sat there, I noted how nearly a couple of minutes went by without one single car passing through the light on the green, the traffic that we had supposedly been stopped for. I enjoy driving ... immensely so. But, I also hate wasting time, and autonomous "appliances" will lessen this time waste ... immensely. This is coming. It's inevitable.
    I'm with you on that. The time efficiency gains of autonomy could buy you back years of your life wasted sitting in traffic. As a commuter or traveler, that thought pleases me. As an enthusiast who enjoys about 90% of driving though, it pains me.
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    IMHO BUYING an autonomous READY car NOW is DUMB as we DO NOT know the LEGAL / Technical requirfements for autonomous cars will be and LIKELY the model S will NOT BE COMPATIBLE with V2V OR I2V communications + we are a few generations away from social acceptance of autonomous cars REPLACING human controlled cars so I doubt there will be ANY loss of resale value for NOT having a autonomous READY features

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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    Driving my buddy's Tesla Model S P75D completely changed my opinion of electric cars. I thought they were all boring soulless cars like the Prius, Volt and Leaf. The Tesla Model S I drove was neck snappingly fast, I literally could not stop my head from snapping backwards when I floored it. It was insanely fast and the experience is completely unique. There is ZERO noise and there are no shifts, it's instant continuous power. And I've never talked to my neighbors in two years since I bought my house, but they both crossed the street and started talking to me about the new Tesla in my driveway.

    Yes, there are some major issues. While charging the car is FREE if you do it at a Tesla charging station it does take about 45 minutes to fully charge it and my buddy's P75D only had about a 200 mile range. But it's like any relatively new technology, it will get better and better. I personally cannot wait for the first electric Silverado.

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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    The benefit to me of autonomy, and a huge selling point of purchasing a Tesla. Is the autonomous ride share that generates revenue while you sleep. Your car can literally pay every dime of your financial outlay to purchase it without any input or work needed from you in this amazing future.
    I want a car so violent that the mere thought of full throttle would cause a heart attack. That actually going wide open throttle in would result in nothing less than instant death!
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by germeezy1 View Post
    The benefit to me of autonomy, and a huge selling point of purchasing a Tesla. Is the autonomous ride share that generates revenue while you sleep. Your car can literally pay every dime of your financial outlay to purchase it without any input or work needed from you in this amazing future.
    Nope...I for one would never pimp out my AV to make a few bucks...can you imagine all the nasty stuff people would do in your car if you weren't around to "supervise/chaperone"? If you put a black light against your interior of your AV after a night out on the town walking the track, you'd be able to see that thing from Mars. Hard pass from me.

    Going back to the thought of eliminating wasted time, AVs would be great for folks w/ long distance commutes, I have a 40mi daily commute which I'd love to get free from having to pilot daily. It'll make my home life a ton better for one as it'll offer a true work decompression time as they ride home.
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by germeezy1 View Post
    The benefit to me of autonomy, and a huge selling point of purchasing a Tesla. Is the autonomous ride share that generates revenue while you sleep. Your car can literally pay every dime of your financial outlay to purchase it without any input or work needed from you in this amazing future.
    I'm not letting some goof trash my car, ever.
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by rand49er View Post
    As I drove to work yesterday morning, I stopped behind several other cars at a red light. Opposing traffic had stopped at the light also. As we sat there, I noted how nearly a couple of minutes went by without one single car passing through the light on the green, the traffic that we had supposedly been stopped for. I enjoy driving ... immensely so. But, I also hate wasting time, and autonomous "appliances" will lessen this time waste ... immensely. This is coming. It's inevitable.
    If city traffic people had half a brain they'd install "smart" stoplights. A few cameras, a simple program, that is cave man technology.

    Quote Originally Posted by richmond2000 View Post
    IMHO BUYING an autonomous READY car NOW is DUMB as we DO NOT know the LEGAL / Technical requirements for autonomous cars will be and LIKELY the model S will NOT BE COMPATIBLE with V2V OR I2V communications + we are a few generations away from social acceptance of autonomous cars REPLACING human controlled cars so I doubt there will be ANY loss of resale value for NOT having a autonomous READY features
    This will be a lawyers' gold mine or golden dream for quite some time yet. Huawei. These systems will be hacked, either by "friendlies" like rogue intel or LE agencies, or by unfriendlies like Ivan, Mao, Rocket Man, The I-O-Toilets, or the kid down the street. This is a terrorist organization's fondest dream. Not to mention random skilled and bored hackers. All our major agencies including DoD have been hacked. Putting a million or five potential bombs on the road just makes certain people lick their chops. It's a Brave New World out there.
    That won't stop anything.

    Quote Originally Posted by germeezy1 View Post
    The benefit to me of autonomy, and a huge selling point of purchasing a Tesla. Is the autonomous ride share that generates revenue while you sleep. Your car can literally pay every dime of your financial outlay to purchase it without any input or work needed from you in this amazing future.
    You will find weird stuff and weird smells in your car the next morning.
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    This is why Tesla believes many will participate without worry of damage.



    Until @Tesla or @elonmusk tells me what this camera is doing for me I'm shutting them out. It SHOULD be used with Sentry Mode, but it's not at this time. When it has a purpose that serves me I'll slide it back open. Here's what I used of you want to join: https://amzn.to/2WHM6UX


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    It’s there for when we start competing with Uber/Lyft & people allow their car to earn money for them as part of the Tesla shared autonomy fleet. In case someone messes up your car, you can check the video.
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    As excited as I am for AVs, until I see a demo of a bunch of them negotiating a trip with other vehicles (primarily AVs themselves) on the road, too, I will not be an early adopter. No, this has to be a fully vetted ... proven ... Level 5 AV or I'll continue driving my "horse and buggy." Teslas aren't there yet. No one is there yet.
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    Re: Elon's Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by RamJet502 View Post
    Driving my buddy's Tesla Model S P75D completely changed my opinion of electric cars. I thought they were all boring soulless cars like the Prius, Volt and Leaf. The Tesla Model S I drove was neck snappingly fast, I literally could not stop my head from snapping backwards when I floored it. It was insanely fast and the experience is completely unique. There is ZERO noise and there are no shifts, it's instant continuous power. And I've never talked to my neighbors in two years since I bought my house, but they both crossed the street and started talking to me about the new Tesla in my driveway.

    Yes, there are some major issues. While charging the car is FREE if you do it at a Tesla charging station it does take about 45 minutes to fully charge it and my buddy's P75D only had about a 200 mile range. But it's like any relatively new technology, it will get better and better. I personally cannot wait for the first electric Silverado.
    Anyone who has read my posts know I'm a big proponent of what Tesla is doing. Despite having driven a Model S on an (almost) daily basis for 3+ years, the car still puts a goofy grin on my face every time I step hard on the accelerator. I love how the car drives and the difference with even a high-performance gas car is easy to feel, especially in passing situations (say, 30 to 50).

    That said, I'm not buying Elon's story on full autonomy just yet. Autopilot is a fantastic driving aid. Love it for what it's already able to do. But you gotta stop hitting parked vehicles that block part of a lane before you expect people to take you seriously on full autonomy. Now, this is not a problem unique to Tesla. Every other system in commercial production today has this issue too (e.g., parked/idling cars aren't on Cadillac's LIDAR database for SuperCruise either). But, if you can't deal with this infrequent but conceptually simple issue (and I get why this case is hard to deal with for today's systems) on highways, I'm not trusting the system to handle city streets.
    Last edited by emh; 08-13-2019 at 04:35 PM.
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