Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

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Thread: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

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    Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Date: October 28, 2019

    Source: Automotive News

    There was a time when Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak was a believer in fully autonomous vehicles.

    These robotic cruisers would read and react to the road like humans, he said, and wouldn't need a steering wheel. Wozniak hoped Apple, which had been rumored over the years to be working on a self-driving car project, would be the one to build it.

    But he has since tempered his expectations. There is simply too much unpredictability on roads, he said, for a self-driving car to manage. For now, he believes the burgeoning technology is better used to give drivers a safety net for certain situations.

    "I stepped way back [on] this idea of Level Five. I've really given up," Wozniak said during the J.D. Power Auto Revolution conference in Las Vegas last week.

    "I don't even know if that will happen in my lifetime."

    Autonomous vehicles would fare better, he said, "if we were to modify roads and have certain sections that are well mapped and kept clean of refuse, and nothing unusual happens and there's no road work."

    The reality of current self-driving systems doesn't match up with consumers' expectations, but Wozniak doesn't think that is their fault.

    "What we've done is we've misled the public into thinking this car is going to be like a human brain to be able to really figure out new things and say, 'Here's something I hadn't seen before, but I know what's going on here, and here's how I should handle it,' " Wozniak said. "A human can do that."

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    He and his lawyers probably hunkered down with their short pencils and calculated that 2 + 2 still = 4 which means he doesn't want to get sued for hundreds of billions of dollars when one of these puppies crashes into a school bus and incinerates 50 chirruns.
    Call that a wild guess.
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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    He and his lawyers probably hunkered down with their short pencils and calculated that 2 + 2 still = 4 which means he doesn't want to get sued for hundreds of billions of dollars when one of these puppies crashes into a school bus and incinerates 50 chirruns.
    Call that a wild guess.
    Imagine being the company that made both; the car that slammed into the bus and the phone the "driver" who wasn't paying attention, was looking at when it all happened..........

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    What he really wants to say is that no sane person could think that every possible road hazard could be accounted for so why should we take responsibility for the inevitable. We will implement the system but lets not call it autonomous lets call it driver assist so the responsibility stays with the driver.

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Quote Originally Posted by Ed753 View Post
    Imagine being the company that made both; the car that slammed into the bus and the phone the "driver" who wasn't paying attention, was looking at when it all happened..........

    Or even just an innocent pedestrian. Since experience and active testing has shown that these "autonomous braking" systems are about 99% reliably going to snuff any person in the way, day or night, I'd say odds are pretty good that these things will turn out pretty bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by big swede View Post
    What he really wants to say is that no sane person could think that every possible road hazard could be accounted for so why should we take responsibility for the inevitable. We will implement the system but lets not call it autonomous lets call it driver assist so the responsibility stays with the driver.
    Aye, there's the rub matey! The people who talk this up are either,
    a) Not sane; or
    b) Agitprop puppets who figure they'll be long gone from the scene before some Titanic class disaster hits the fan. Or
    c) Also believe in the Toof Fairy, the Eastern Bunny, Snow White and the Three Bears, Santa, Goldie Locks and the Seven Dwarfs, Goblins and Ghosts that come out only on Halloween, and that guy who says he's from the government and he's here to help you, WILL help you, and, and, and...
    Last edited by Neanderthal; 10-28-2019 at 01:12 PM.
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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Or is the reality that Apple is used to selling product that have 50% profit margins and there is no way they can get that in the automotive world? No doubt that true self driving cars are a moon shot, but I bet the potential profitability of such tech is giving Apple some misgivings.

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    level 5 is seen as the "paradigm shifting" stage where employee-free taxi and delivery services "come alive" and that space has a LOT of profit potential and the banksters have a :"hard" on when paradigms get shifted and there is a CHANCE OF A POSSIBILITY of making moolah

    I for one do NOT WANT level 5 in the CAR I OWN but am intrigued by Tesla autopilot and OTHER "driver assistance" features

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackGTP View Post
    Or is the reality that Apple is used to selling product that have 50% profit margins and there is no way they can get that in the automotive world? No doubt that true self driving cars are a moon shot, but I bet the potential profitability of such tech is giving Apple some misgivings.
    Fifty percent? I'm guessing 90%. My iPhone is a bunch of connections and weighs 10 oz. and it costs 800 bucks to make? In Chyyynnnaaa?? Like I told the girl on the phone at Verizon a week or so ago, I'm not paying eight bills for something that cost ten bucks to make in China. Not again.
    Last edited by Neanderthal; 10-29-2019 at 01:01 PM.
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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Oh brother...Level 5 and the whole autonomous thing is just an automotive jedi mind trick on their consumers. Knowing that there will be plenty of opinion on it, they pull an Obi-wan and state their autonomous intentions when in reality, they are just looking for a way to change the course of automotive technology forcing them to replace their current crop of employees with a new set probably in countries where labor is cheaper. But, at least they will feel better in knowing that the masses "forced" auto companies to forget autonomous anything. Yay! Victory!

    In reality, what will happen is that their cars will be battery electric cars with minimal parts to install and maintain, but, all manufactured somewhere else. The skin will then be "assembled" locally to ensure local tastes are followed. $55K will be the cheapest you will get here. Most people will afford one car and then their "second" car will actually be from the shareable market (aka taxi service)...

    You say you want an ICE car? Well, now, you sure can but you will have to pay up for that capability. Consider a Chevy Equinox a $65K vehicle in the no-so-distant future. Freedom does have its privileges you know.

    Global economy...check.
    Capitalist elite balance sheet enhanced...check
    Pull an Obi-wan on the 99% to make themselves feel better..check

    Nothing to see here fellas...it's just another day... the mess is under the carpet...in Washington DC...in Detroit or at least what's left of it...

    Just keep feeling good about how bad Level 5 is...
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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Steve Wozniak is irrelevant. Not to discredit his work, the Apple I, Integer BASIC, Apple II, Apple II GS and ADB were great products and technologies that made Apple billions for years, but he is out of his league here and is unqualified to speak on AI. I went through his background and education to confirm, and it is not something he did any work on.

    "I don't even know if that will happen in my lifetime."
    It probably won't, but that's because you are 69 and the average life expectancy in the US is 74, even if we add 10 more because rich people have access to healthcare, he has 15 years to go.

    Now I don't want to be overly optimistic, but I do see it being 10 years away. Of course in 1968 AI pioneers John McCarthy and Donald Michie lost a bet that a computer can beat a world champion within the next 10 years, they were off by 20 years. So I might be as optimistic and as off, but Computer Vision and Machine Learning are my day job, and we are getting closer.

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Quote Originally Posted by Neanderthal View Post
    He and his lawyers probably hunkered down with their short pencils and calculated that 2 + 2 still = 4 which means he doesn't want to get sued for hundreds of billions of dollars when one of these puppies crashes into a school bus and incinerates 50 chirruns.
    Call that a wild guess.
    He can’t be sued for anything. He’s not involved in any of the r&d ans has no decision-making power at Apple or anywhere else. He has, because of who he is, more inside knowledge than anyone outside of the company. But no one is suing him if an autonomous vehicle causes a wreck.
    I am on the border of genius and crazy. I keep trying to cross over into genius, but ICE keeps sending me back to the crazy side of the border.

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Quote Originally Posted by Self Reliance View Post
    Steve Wozniak is irrelevant. Not to discredit his work, the Apple I, Integer BASIC, Apple II, Apple II GS and ADB were great products and technologies that made Apple billions for years, but he is out of his league here and is unqualified to speak on AI. I went through his background and education to confirm, and it is not something he did any work on.



    It probably won't, but that's because you are 69 and the average life expectancy in the US is 74, even if we add 10 more because rich people have access to healthcare, he has 15 years to go.

    Now I don't want to be overly optimistic, but I do see it being 10 years away. Of course in 1968 AI pioneers John McCarthy and Donald Michie lost a bet that a computer can beat a world champion within the next 10 years, they were off by 20 years. So I might be as optimistic and as off, but Computer Vision and Machine Learning are my day job, and we are getting closer.
    Actually, a 69 year old male already has a 15.09 year life expectancy. That 74 number is average at birth. I'm with Woz and am younger. Could be wrong, but I say 2050 at the soonest. Self-drive is about where we were when Dragon voice recognition was introduced in the 80's. And even today, I would not trust my life with voice recognition, would you?

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    The only way I see fully autonomous vehicles working is with dedicated lanes. For now, even semi-autonomous are not safe due to some pretty ignorant people who think they are playing with a toy, not a large projectile capable of some serious mayhem. The current infrastructure is just not friendly to a computer that must make a split second judgement/change due to circumstances that are unpredictable.

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    I agree that Level 5 will not happen anytime soon – (maybe not in our lifetime) – BUT the more important fact here is that Level 2 is happening all over the auto industry with the exception of GM!

    Currently I’m shopping for a new SUV. I’ve studied the GM offerings and find even with all their different brands and models, other than a single expensive Cadillac, no GM vehicles are available with “Lane Centering” (The technology that steers the vehicle for you on well-marked roads). (Please don't confuse this with "Lane Keeping", an older mostly useless technology available in many GM vehicles you can get by paying extra).

    Lane Centering (or Lane Tracing, or Active Lane Keeping) is increasingly available as standard equipment on many brands including Toyota Corolla and Rav4, Honda, Kia, Hyundai, Nissan, etc., while at GM, it is not even available at extra cost. Most of these competitors also include full Stop and Go Adaptive Cruise at no extra cost, while at GM, it almost always costs extra (if even offered).

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    Re: Apple Co-Founder: I've Really Given Up' on Level Five

    Quote Originally Posted by Vagon11 View Post
    Actually, a 69 year old male already has a 15.09 year life expectancy. That 74 number is average at birth. I'm with Woz and am younger. Could be wrong, but I say 2050 at the soonest. Self-drive is about where we were when Dragon voice recognition was introduced in the 80's. And even today, I would not trust my life with voice recognition, would you?
    dragon voice and AI cars are not the same EX when you "demand 100%" nobody is expecting 100% from robo-taxis JUST BETTER than human drivers and the last 10 years HUMANS ARE GETTING WORSE not better
    and a mistake in an ai car is not equal to a crash OR loss of life
    it is "easy" to mitigate HIGH risk environments by using machine learning and "BIG DATA" and NOT driving into areas that cause a LOT of high injury crashes IE route around a "BAD" intersection

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