Not Ethanol: China's change in meat consumption responsible for high grain prices

[HoosierRon]

Meat vs Fuel: grain trends in China 1995-2008

A change in Chinese meat consumption habits since 1995 is diverting eight billion bushels of grain per year to livestock feed and could empty global grain stocks by September 2010, according to a new study from Biofuels Digest, now available for download here in an expanded version.

The Study, "Meat vs Fuel: Grain use in the U.S. and China, 1995-2008" concluded that, even if the U.S. ethanol industry were shut down tomorrow, rising Chinese demand for meat, and the ensuing livestock feed demand, will empty global grain stocks as soon as 2013. The report offers gloomy news for policymakers who have hoped to address global food vs. fuel concerns by restraining U.S. ethanol demand.

The study found that the US produced 349 million tones of corn last year, up from 192 million tones in 1995, but the 157 million tonne increase has not kept pace with rising demand. The US ethanol industry, which has been criticized as the primary cause of grain shortages and rising prices, increased its grain usage by 31 million tonnes during the 12 year period. By contrast, livestock grain demand to supply Chinese meat consumption increased by 199 million tonnes.

"Given that the US population has grown 15 percent in the past 13 years, the 82 percent increase in US corn production left plenty for people, plenty for livestock, and plenty for ethanol."� said Lane. "The bad news is that the grain was Shanghaied, leaving us with a fuel crisis and a food crisis. The good news is that it's easier to find a steak in Beijing."

The study resolves several questions that had been unanswered in the fuel vs. fuel debate by focusing on rising demand from China as well as the U.S. The report identified that rice, rather than corn or wheat, suffered the largest price increases over the 12-year period, despite the fact that rice is not used for biofuel production. The study also ties falling global grain stocks to corresponding increases in Chinese consumption.

[samkung]

What are you trying to prove here? Don't you think the source is a little biased??

After reading the article, here is what i think, they give us numbers, lots of numbers, well yes meat consumption in China is going up (catching up with the west i guess), but there is no data in regard to China's grain import, without that you cant draw a solid conclusion on what is causing the price to go up. Plus the article smells like a pure defense for Biofuel

[LAMRONH]

Watch for an increase in fat Chinese people over the next 20 years.

Or watch for the next plague, which will bring earth's population down to sustainable levels.

[CJ Thunder]

This is why many countries are wanting to back out of the WTO. Be self reliant.

[Hunid Racks]

So we are supposed to increase production of grain to keep world prices as low as possible while at the same time absorb high fuel prices, lower personal income and buy as much stuff as posible from foreign sources.

And while we are at it, we should also forgive various debts from poor nations.

Sounds good to me.

[Cortazzo]

The solution,stop subsidizing uber-rich farmers in the USA, there is plenty of demand for their crops!!!!! Besides, corn is a lousy feedstock for ethanol, especially at these prices. In the next 5-10 years we will probably transition to more algae or more sugar rich crops as a primary feedstock for our biofuels.

[smith7629]

Originally Posted by Cortazzo

The solution,stop subsidizing uber-rich farmers in the USA, there is plenty of demand for their crops!!!!! Besides, corn is a lousy feedstock for ethanol, especially at these prices. In the next 5-10 years we will probably transition to more algae or more sugar rich crops as a primary feedstock for our biofuels.

Uber rich farmers? What planet are you from? I think we should educate ourselves on how subsidies work before we assume farmers are getting paid loads of cash from the government while the market is buying all the food products they can produce. Personally I'm glad there were subsidies in the past so the infrastructure stayed in place while the demand was low, and therefore was able to quickly adapt and perform when the market changed. Food production is a critical national resource that's worth spending government dollars on when the times require it.

[Wolfman01]

Originally Posted by Cortazzo

The solution,stop subsidizing uber-rich farmers in the USA, there is plenty of demand for their crops!!!!! Besides, corn is a lousy feedstock for ethanol, especially at these prices. In the next 5-10 years we will probably transition to more algae or more sugar rich crops as a primary feedstock for our biofuels.

I would truly love to know what some people consider "rich." Do you have any clue what farmer's make for money? If they are so "rich" why do so many lose their farms? Have you priced the cost of harvesting equipment, fertilizers, FUEL to run said equipment and apply the fertilizers? How about the cost to get the crops to their various places to be processed into feed and food stock? Have you compared these costs to the final price they get for their crops?

I'm sure you're aware of the major flooding in Iowa, Illinois and Missouri. I'm sure those farmers whose crops have been washed away by the Mississippi river are gonna go back and roll in their dough.

I am sick of this moronic class warefare garbage that has been flooded to the masses by our "unbiased" media.

[chinamonty]

I would be surprised to find too many pigs here in China enjoying imported corn. I would think most of them would be eating restaurant scraps instead. Of course being such a large country generalisations dont hold up too well (same as "rich" farmers who have assets but no cash) but perhaps there are intense pig farms that use corn. people here eat a lot of corn by the way. On streets you will find vendors selling corn ears already cooked for you and they are great to eat.
the fat Chinese are the ones that are going to KFC and Maccas. there are still a lot of chinese who dont eat meat at all or eat very little.

[samkung]

Originally Posted by chinamonty

I would be surprised to find too many pigs here in China enjoying imported corn. I would think most of them would be eating restaurant scraps instead. Of course being such a large country generalisations dont hold up too well (same as "rich" farmers who have assets but no cash) but perhaps there are intense pig farms that use corn. people here eat a lot of corn by the way. On streets you will find vendors selling corn ears already cooked for you and they are great to eat.
the fat Chinese are the ones that are going to KFC and Maccas. there are still a lot of chinese who dont eat meat at all or eat very little.

Yeah the thing is, it is hard for outsider to understand how chinese manage to use their limited resources to feed most of their population like i mentioned in the thread ages ago, most farmer use Bran to feed their pigs, ahhh maybe not those super intense one, but i am sure their basic food will still be bran