Most consumers willing to pay for hybrid cars

[PhishPhood]

Originally Posted by 64malibu

wheres the cost of the battery in those calculations? If people are willing to buy hybrids why isn't there a long lineup to buy hybrid Tahoes. They get as good milage as a Camray in the city not so good on the highway. GM's 2 mode system is better than Toyotas and Hondas also. This fall or next spring GM is bringing out a 2 mode Saturn Vue. This should come close to Prius milage in a bigger roomier vehicle. Lets see if people will buy it

There is no cost of battery replacement for any of the hybrids on the road, neither for Toyota nor Ford nor Honda nor GM nor Nissan nor any of the other major players soon to be bringing hybrids here.

Why?

Because the NiMH battery are dead solid reliable for the entire effective life of the vehicle no matter which vehicle they used in. The vehicle makers first of all have to offer either an 8 yr / 100,000 mi warranty or a 10 yr / 150,000 mi warranty on all of them. Therefore in this period there is NO COST at all.

However to protect themselves each of the vehicle makers has done longterm reliability tests and found that the battery packs just don't wear down until well over 200,000 miles maybe even 300,000 miles.

In addition the Federal Government has tested ( or is in the process of testing ) ALL the hybrids in service now up to 160,000 miles. It's findings thus far are that there is no deterioration in the battery packs... they perform at 160,000 miles just as good as they did at 16 miles.

Then common sense arises. At 200,000 miles when a vehicle is worth about $1000 who is going to dump $4000 into a tranny, a new engine, a replaced exhaust system or a battery pack. At 300,000 miles when the vehicle is worth $500...... Now guess how many vehicles ( gassers or diesels ) on the road now actually have 250,000 miles or more. There are some for sure but the numbers are single digits as a percentage of the total population of vehicles in use. And when these vehicles die....they're dead for good. That's the effective life of the vehicle.

Just for kicks look up the trade value of a 1997 Taurus with 150,000 miles on it. The value is ZERO!...meaning if it was taken to an auction it would be sold for parts. Corollas, Camrys, Malibus and Town and Countrys aren't much higher.

Now how about this for unintended consuences? What if the hybrid systems from all the makers extend the effective lives of all the hybrids from 150,000 for most gassers miles to say 250,000 miles for the hybrids. This is what appears to be happening.

[AMERICA 123]

Originally Posted by PhishPhood

There is no cost of battery replacement for any of the hybrids on the road, neither for Toyota nor Ford nor Honda nor GM nor Nissan nor any of the other major players soon to be bringing hybrids here.

Why?

NOPE.

Its to avoid discussing an unpleasant deal breaker for some potential buyers - like long term and medium term owners who have a healthy skepticism when large Corporations singly or en mass start selling things presented as the next best thing since sliced bread.

Its also to skew and distort in a way favorable to batteries - our nation's entire debate concerning future transportation and automotive powertrain choices.

Finally, its to help make all the real hidden money behind battery hybrids a killing on earnings while we pursue the most expensive solution possible - see the all but suppressed Mckinsey report that puts this kind of hybridization as the most expensive way possible to reduce carbon emissions - at a rip roaring 90.00$ per ton - with too many to list more attractive solutions below 50 and even 25.00$ per ton - that's just one aspect of the BS concerning battery hybrids.

The two tactics used - seen on the internet - besides outright lying in all possible manner and method are to discuss everything in terms of commonly accepted legal definitions of useful vehicle economic life or smaller lengths and proportions of that.

LEGAL DEFINITIONS OF VEHICLE ECONOMIC LIFE ARE NOT THE SAME AS MARKET DEFINITIONS OR INDIVIDUAL CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS IN TOTALITY.

These legal definitions of a vehicle's economic life have many limitations to them - not the least of which is the implicit assumption that the vehicle is now used up at the end point.

As an aside, I can still lay my hands on a decent size group of vehicles that refute that proposition of which all but four are in 'regular' low use service - with accumulated mileages well past 100,000 miles up thru 245,000 plus.

For the money shot, this tactic is taking to the extreme by reporting - in some cases erroneously for further insult to the truth - short time, hi mileage data that apply to few in the real world - especially low mileage users who until recently made up a disproportionate percentage of hybrid users.

The hope by the almost exclusively Toyota HSD spin meisters is that you, the buying public will erroneously connect the last dot and extrapolate your life expectancy values - incorrectly to make a purchase - while ignoring the main practical guarantee of a large, unexpected operating cost somewhere between 8 -12 years of operation - regardless of mileage. As this becomes better known it will most definitely affect resale values in a negative way - short term owners will evenually feel it as well.

That COST in a TOYOTA hybrid's case will run you anywhere from 4500/6000.00 at the low end on up - there's typically more to do than just the battery and it does vary from installation to installation - and that's in terms of today's dollars which represent both the historic low and realistically are lower than they will be 8 -12 years from now - also in today's dollars.

Because the NiMH battery are dead solid reliable for the entire effective life of the vehicle no matter which vehicle they used in. The vehicle makers first of all have to offer either an 8 yr / 100,000 mi warranty or a 10 yr / 150,000 mi warranty on all of them. Therefore in this period there is NO COST at all.

Brilliant combination of truth and fiction which we can sort out in detail later.
Practically speaking, for American buyers the warranty lengths are as stated - outside of the States Toyota cuts the battery coverage to as low as 5? years/ 100,000 KILOMETERS or 62,500 miles.

Gee, now why would they do that ???

However to protect themselves each of the vehicle makers has done longterm reliability tests and found that the battery packs just don't wear down until well over 200,000 miles maybe even 300,000 miles.

Again truth and fiction in a knotty combination that misleads in terms of the complete truth.

At the core of your many omissions here is that these 'tests' are completed in very short periods of time - and use simulation and extrapolation methods for a big part of the result.

The HONEST TO God truth is that NO ONE has data yet based on LARGE numbers of hybrids that have been operated in the real world for 8 -12 years or more.

The closest group to meeting that criteria are the true first gen Priuses - sold only in Japan prior to 2000 with the non Ni H battery pack.

Since cheap shots that are also erroneously misleading are such a part of the Toyota hybrid propaganda world I'll take one now to describe those results.

Total Fail.

Total Fail accurately describes those earliest Priuses past 7 years - thats not just the battery hybrid system stuff - thats in regards to the complete vehicle.

In addition the Federal Government has tested ( or is in the process of testing ) ALL the hybrids in service now up to 160,000 miles. It's findings thus far are that there is no deterioration in the battery packs... they perform at 160,000 miles just as good as they did at 16 miles.

Completely false in the literal sense - largely untrue in the practical sense. As hybrid vehicle batteries deteriorate overtime, in a non linear fashion and with a large dependency on exactly what drive cycle the vehicle is used under - fuel economy drops as well - from negligible to huge. Then with certain systems - no surprise such as HSD - the vehicle will not operate normally to safely - right uo to not operating at all.

Then common sense arises. At 200,000 miles when a vehicle is worth about $1000 who is going to dump $4000 into a tranny, a new engine, a replaced exhaust system or a battery pack. At 300,000 miles when the vehicle is worth $500...... Now guess how many vehicles ( gassers or diesels ) on the road now actually have 250,000 miles or more. There are some for sure but the numbers are single digits as a percentage of the total population of vehicles in use. And when these vehicles die....they're dead for good. That's the effective life of the vehicle.

Just for kicks look up the trade value of a 1997 Taurus with 150,000 miles on it. The value is ZERO!...meaning if it was taken to an auction it would be sold for parts. Corollas, Camrys, Malibus and Town and Countrys aren't much higher.

Now how about this for unintended consuences? What if the hybrid systems from all the makers extend the effective lives of all the hybrids from 150,000 for most gassers miles to say 250,000 miles for the hybrids. This is what appears to be happening.

Here you at least have some of the right ideas - with all the wrong numbers.

The real issues are going to be in the 8-12 old year range - maybe more - we are in the process of adding age to our national fleet as we speak.

That fleet 'effectively' turns over ( last time I looked) on average in 12.5 years - an accurate statement of some practical worth for now would be that any Prius that makes it into and operates thru the 8 -12.5 year age range will most likely have had at least one battery and related replacement.

Given other expensive failures that occur on that car as time accumulates it is possible they will be abandoned before then - so to be perfectly accurate we will have to wait and see what happens.

This all has more consequences than are are necessarily obvious - probably most importantly in terms of older vehicle resale.

Easy to see in this way.

Imagine three 10 year old Priuses sitting in front of you - with the same equipment, miles and condition.

One just had its battery pack and related replaced - correctly.

Number two needs that done.

Number three is running acceptably - at least in normal driving - doesn't appear to need a pack replacement yet.

What are the three vehicles worth relative to the market and each other ?

Well, hell, I don't know, but I do know when I'm looking at three losers together - the only difference between these three is in the details of the loss and its distribution.

The point is, once real world information based on large numbers of real world data gets out past the spin that battery is going to change the normal resale value expectations - like everything else about HSD nothing is the same as a regular gasser - no matter how hard the spin doctors try and make it seem.

There is an important distinction to be made here concerning all this.

There is on one hand everything that all the OEMs including Toyota and other have (carefully) actually spoken, and then there is what people say they have said plus erroneous extrapolation plus of course all the spin.

We can all thank PhishPHood for illustrating all the above points.

Then of course, there are the other variables that affect battery life not even mentioned here.

[eaton53]

If GM goes from selling a $40,000 vehicle in the first two years to a $30,000 vehicle when it hits 100,000 units there is going to be some pissed off customers like those who purchased the Apple Iphone, when they dropped the prices in half.

I remember when a 50" plasma tv cost over $10K.
Most people know electronics drop over time and early adopters pay big...