Bob Lutz on the Future of Green Cars and Fuel Economy

[fp115]

Originally Posted by auburnblu

But isn't it gas only after 40 miles. Maybe I'm missing something in what I have read. And if I have a short commute why am I buying an electric car? Where do a lot of the urban yuppies that live in expensive condos plug these in at? The person that might buy it with a long commute likely can't plug it in at work. Didn't the Impact have a much longer range. I remain convinced that GM has missed the mark some here. Think initial hype and fanfare will be great, then once the number crunchers and bloggers start reporting on real world results, the reality will change. Hope I'm wrong, but a Prius type vehicle would seem a better path at the moment. But kudos to em for trying, beats doing nothing.

No it isn't. The gas generator is simply used to recharge the battery, once it is recharged it turns off again and runs however many miles left on the battery before recharging it again. Regardless, nearly all places it is easy to find somewhere to plug into. Places like California are adopting plugs everywhere. Condos and apartments all over where I live also have plugs (cars in winter). The majority of people who commute to work can remove their independence from fuel all together. If they do less than 40 miles every day all they will need to do is charge it at night and then they are set for the next day's commute.

The future Prius will also be a plugin with a much shorter range and a much less reliable battery pack. If GM missed the mark then explain why the whole market is attempting to produce something similar to the Volt, but unable to reproduce it at the same scale as GM.

[eb110americana]

It cuts off just as he begins to talk about the Camaro. Anyone know where the rest is?

[DMD]

Originally Posted by bleuler

Liberals are against personal mobility?

this guy is seriously out of touch and the douchebags around him and just kissing his butt.

What a blowhard.

The above statement is so true for many people who are into a global even economic playing field around the globe. A playing field where we all pay the same and there are no advatages for anyone. those in economics that are "winners" get punished and those that are the "losers" get handouts. Its a very sad thing. Many people especially in the liberal community strongly feel that the economic advantages that we have in this country through are own efforts, creativity and hard work should be clipped back aka as a form of punishment through taxation or some other form of regulation, all in the effort to give economic parity for other less successful regions of the world. I have talked to a number of people in general over the years that have said that when fuel goes up to a price in the range of what the Europeans are paying they would be happy with that. Well, we are still in many cases well below what the Europeans are paying for fuel but the economic woes many will be feeling this winter with high fuel bills I would suspect will make many of those anti-competitive types rethink their bizarre thinking on this issue.

What many in this community fail to realize is that when there are high prices for fuel we all lose. There isn't as much commerce because of cost on many different levels. Tourism, shipping, business transations, trade shows, etc, etc, etc. All this lack of economic activity has a direct influence on companies bottom lines. If companies can't increase the bottom line than they are not going to be hiring more employees and innovating their products and services as quickly or efficiently as they would if fuel was more reasonably priced. If business isn't making $$$$$ like they should than the burden of taxation on all of us will be that much greater.

[PhishPhood]

Originally Posted by fp115

No it isn't. The gas generator is simply used to recharge the battery, once it is recharged it turns off again and runs however many miles left on the battery before recharging it again. Regardless, nearly all places it is easy to find somewhere to plug into. Places like California are adopting plugs everywhere. Condos and apartments all over where I live also have plugs (cars in winter). The majority of people who commute to work can remove their independence from fuel all together. If they do less than 40 miles every day all they will need to do is charge it at night and then they are set for the next day's commute.

The future Prius will also be a plugin with a much shorter range and a much less reliable battery pack. If GM missed the mark then explain why the whole market is attempting to produce something similar to the Volt, but unable to reproduce it at the same scale as GM.

It's a good question but you asked it backwards. GM has set the Volt as a stand-alone EREV vehicle with what appears to be the longest gas-free range of about 40 mi under perfect driving conditions. They have also announced, recently, that the price tag for this blank-sheet new technology will be $40000 ( with hopefully some governmental assistance down the road ).

So the question is not 'why is the whole market attempting to produce something similar?' the real question for the other makers is 'assuming the public goes for this new leap of technology, how can we sell more units and make more money?'.

GM is not in the hybrid business, yet. OK it just entered. Ford and Toyota and Honda have been there for 10 yrs. They have vehicles on the road and in development that use 10 yrs worth of prior development that may only need minor adjustments at relatively low costs to provide similar results as the Volt. None may be as capable as the Volt in terms of gas-free driving but neither will they be as expensive as the Volt.

Imagine if the Volt hits the street @ $40000 while the PHEV Escape, which is much bigger and more capable, hits the street at $35000 and the PHEV Prius comes in at $33000. OK so the Ford and Toyota vehicles 'only' get 20 gas-free miles. Guess which ones will get the most interest from Mr/Mrs Middle America.

Then factor in that the current NiMH battery technology gets less and less expensive as volume increases across all makers and the 'traditional hybrid' getting 50 mpg runs $18000 to $25000 for most buyers. Which do you think Mr/Mrs Bluecollar Steelworker will opt for? $40000 or $20000?

Actually there is room in this HUGE market in N America for all the options and we're just in the first days of this revolution. The Volt will likely sell out to the very well-to-do that have to have the latest and the greatest; but the volume is going to be tiny. The PHEV Fords and Toyotas will also sell out but in larger numbers ( more profit ) to those a little more cost conscious; but the volume will be small. The traditional hybrids will boom and volume will go off the boards as prices come down generating HUGE profits.

In the end it only comes down to a business decision of which technology, at which cost, will generate the most volume and the highest profits. These are just businesses afterall. Total Profit is the only real measuring stick.

[fp115]

I believe that Ford's PHEV will be better to aim at with the Saturn Vue Plugin. I am not sure how the pricing will be, but GM will also need to find ways to get numbers out of Saturn and quick. Cadillac will also have their own SRX to also pickup on the slack, but that will evidently be priced higher than all of them.

Surprisingly GM had the first ever hybrids, longer than any other automanufacturer. The problem with it was that in the 90's they did not see a viable market for them and therefore did not release them to the public. You can arguably say that GM has more years with hybrid technology. Look at the buses GM has made in California or the other technology they released there. They used up their hybrid technology for mass transits, never for public automobiles.

I am not sure if you have kept up with the Volt's future plans, but there are talks of bringing another Volt with a smaller battery pack, for lets say 20 miles. The cost will be reduced significantly. The government has said that it will be subsidizing a great part of the cost of each vehicle. Whether or not it will be noticeable we will see.

It isn't GM's fault the technology is not all there at an affordable cost, they will be absorbing part of the cost of each vehicle in order to sell more unit and improve its image. Toyota has been doing this for years with their Prius, but their plugin will definitely increase the cost over their current hybrid platform. So far, no companies are making any profit on hybrids. The cost of having additional batteries and engines on the cars are what drives the cost way up, but each company will pay a portion of the cost in order to sell it to the customer and have a better public image.

For now it will be up to GM to sell this at loss (as all other hybrids), improve public perception and by the time that the Volt 2 comes around the chances of making profit will be great with the advancement in technology and cost effectiveness, the real hard part is making the vehicle from scratch.