Its Not Just GM: July Sales Fall 7.3% At Toyota; Tundra Sells 23K - New Record

[PrenupTB]

Originally Posted by TahoeMikeZ71

I think your clueless son.

Learn to spell. You're thinking about my clueless son?

[PrenupTB]

Originally Posted by megeebee

Not so fast. Geozinger is right. Remember last year Toyota was selling the last generation Tundra. And if 23,000 represents a 134% increase, imagine what a sales dog the last one was. When new models come out, and are given hundreds of millions of dollars worth of advertising and marketing, not to mention the VERY large incentives now being offered by Toyota, it would be difficult to NOT move the metal.

This is compared to GM full size pick up sales, Chev and GMC combined of 67,053 for July.

Yeah, I'm sure the Saturn Aura knows about that.

[windvale]

Both the Tundra and the Silverado are good trucks...where's the surprise here ? Is anybody really thinking that consumers will by a Chevy over a Toyota just because it's a Chevy ? That thinking on cars went away 30 years ago.

Now people are considering Toyota trucks right along with Chevy. Ten years from now I'd expect Toyota to sell the same number of pickups as Chevy does today - what's to stop them ??? Same quality, product, features, etc., why wouldn't they ? There's no transcendant law in the universe that say's that US consumers will only buy Big Three trucks...

[TahoeMikeZ71]

Originally Posted by PrenupTB

Learn to spell. You're thinking about my clueless son?

Actually I do know how to spell I was just rushing.

[Mcmflow]

Originally Posted by PrenupTB

They're not. They think it's just a phase and they can play Mellencamp songs with rednecks. They are clueless.

It's beginning to look that way.

[steinravnik]

Originally Posted by Perian

Thank God the PR people (GM, Ford and now Toyota) have the housing industry to blame all of their problems on!

I wonder if the reference to the housing industry indicates that the new Tundra had a bad month?

I follow the housing industry very closely, and yes, it is that bad. The housing industry and the unprecedented rise in residential real estate equity nationwide from 2000-2005 created massive wealth which fueled consumer spending, especially big ticket items like automobiles. Now that the housing market is in its worst slump ever with decreasing equity and massive foreclosures, you can expect that automobile sales will suffer.

The Tundra sold well most likely due to the massive $3500 rebate.

[Mcmflow]

Originally Posted by megeebee

Not so fast. Geozinger is right. Remember last year Toyota was selling the last generation Tundra. And if 23,000 represents a 134% increase, imagine what a sales dog the last one was. When new models come out, and are given hundreds of millions of dollars worth of advertising and marketing, not to mention the VERY large incentives now being offered by Toyota, it would be difficult to NOT move the metal.

This is compared to GM full size pick up sales, Chev and GMC combined of 67,053 for July.

That's the point. How often do you see a redesign of an exisisting model do this well? Toyota wanted to sell 200K a year, they are on track to sell 220-240K a year.

I contend though that if the Tunrda didn't have the 5.7, it probably wouldn't be selling like it is.

[jkennedy293]

Originally Posted by PrenupTB

Learn to spell. You're thinking about my clueless son?

Don't forget about his punctuation problem, too. If you are going to harp, please harp correctly.

[geozinger]

Originally Posted by windvale

Both the Tundra and the Silverado are good trucks...where's the surprise here ? Is anybody really thinking that consumers will by a Chevy over a Toyota just because it's a Chevy ? That thinking on cars went away 30 years ago.

Now people are considering Toyota trucks right along with Chevy. Ten years from now I'd expect Toyota to sell the same number of pickups as Chevy does today - what's to stop them ??? Same quality, product, features, etc., why wouldn't they ? There's no transcendant law in the universe that say's that US consumers will only buy Big Three trucks...

I don't know about that. Truck owners seem to be a pretty intransigent lot. They stick with what they like. None of these sales figures quoted here give us conquest sale rates.

I'm also curious to see how the QC problems with the Tundra are handled and whether or not that affects future sales. We won't know the results of that for a while.

I hate to over-use this saying, but time will tell...

[jzchev28]

Originally Posted by windvale

Both the Tundra and the Silverado are good trucks...where's the surprise here ? Is anybody really thinking that consumers will by a Chevy over a Toyota just because it's a Chevy ? That thinking on cars went away 30 years ago.

Now people are considering Toyota trucks right along with Chevy. Ten years from now I'd expect Toyota to sell the same number of pickups as Chevy does today - what's to stop them ??? Same quality, product, features, etc., why wouldn't they ? There's no transcendant law in the universe that say's that US consumers will only buy Big Three trucks...

Why wouldn't they? well the biggest reason is that typical truck drivers have more pride in their purchas then some car drivers. There are ford drivers that wouldnt be caught dead in a chevy let alone a toy-leta, and vise versa.

[espo19047]

Originally Posted by Mcmflow

This right here tells the story. GM has no chace of catching up. If Toyota is able to sell 23,000 tundras, that is where the Silverado sells are going to.

That's a total embarassment for GM. I guess people really were just waiting for Toyota to come out with a real truck.

Are you feeling the slap in the face GM???

Why should GM feel a slap in the face? They Make a better truck.

[steinravnik]

Originally Posted by geozinger

However, I think we're just realizing the tip of the iceberg of the whole housing/refinancing/shaky mortgage problem. I fear we have not reached the bottom, there's more room to fall down. And that this situation will affect many more of us, whether or not we purchase pickup trucks or cars.

Correct. The correction in housing alone most likely has at least another two years to go. And it will continue to gain considerable momentum through the end of this year. There has already been substantial failure in the subprime mortgage market, and the ALT-A (the next class of mortgage that is less riskier than subprime, but riskier than prime) market will be hit soon. Take a look at this chart to get an idea of exactly how many risky mortgages are out there:

http://www.recharts.com/reports/CSHB...SHB031207.html

The majority of subprime and alt-a mortgages made last year will most likely fail if they have not already failed in the massive defaults already witnessed. This is on top of the risky mortgages made in 2005, 2004, 2003, etc.

But the real crux of the problem is not mortgages nor automobiles, but the looming global credit crisis. It's more likely than you think.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...4A8F61D2E4%7D&

Central banks around the world have had extremely liberal monetary policies over the past several years and this has created a massive global credit bubble. The unwinding of this will not be pretty.

[PhishPhood]

Originally Posted by Mcmflow

That's the point. How often do you see a redesign of an exisisting model do this well? Toyota wanted to sell 200K a year, they are on track to sell 220-240K a year.

I contend though that if the Tunrda didn't have the 5.7, it probably wouldn't be selling like it is.

These months, especially this month August, are the peak selling months. Extrapolating from one month is not accurate. This trend does indicate that total sales will be at least 50% higher than last year. 180-200K units are very likely for CY 2007.

[nickf1011]

Originally Posted by Mcmflow

That's the point. How often do you see a redesign of an exisisting model do this well? Toyota wanted to sell 200K a year, they are on track to sell 220-240K a year.

I contend though that if the Tunrda didn't have the 5.7, it probably wouldn't be selling like it is.

If they only wanted to sell 200K a year, why did they build enough capacity to produce over 300K of them a year? I think it's more likely they just low-balled the expectations so even a relative flop could be touted in the press as a success story.

[bcjohnso99]

Originally Posted by steinravnik

Central banks around the world have had extremely liberal monetary policies over the past several years and this has created a massive global credit bubble. The unwinding of this will not be pretty.

Credit abuse (with financial institutions being willing participants) is widely believed to have been the trigger for the great depression. Hopefully it's better managed this time...

Given the amount of investment in China and their questionable debt policies, the next big one could start there.

To all pessimists: collect gold and buy your truck at 20 cents on the dollar after the collapse