The Great GMI Analysis of the US Auto Market: C4C edition!

[Bravada]

The US Auto Market in August 2009
New classifications, cash 4 clunkers, and more!

You have been all waiting for it, and here it is - the most authoritative detailed analysis of the US auto market for the just closed month of August. Compiled and calculated in NO TIME by your reliable CUtiger08 (and only posted by me so late because of my laziness).

You can see the impact Cash 4 Clunkers had on the market, the overall upswing trend and the winners and losers thereof. Moreover, our chief analyst has been working hard on new classification, discussing it with you here.

August analysis: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...wb3U2N0E&hl=en

July analysis for comparison: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...VS01fTkE&hl=en

Browse, download, ponder upon, recalculate, discuss and argue, and don't forget to thank CUtiger08 for the marvellous job!

[CUtiger08]

Thanks for posting this Bravada. I hope everyone likes the new format of the spreadsheets, I think it should be easier to read and hopefully more informative as well.


Also, in what can only be described as 'news of the wierd', guess what brand grew the most during C4C month, based on YTD sales per day... Hyundai, Toyota/Scion, Ford, Nissan, Chevy??

Nope... it was Maybach... with 21% jump in sales/day by going from 31 to 43 sales so far this year. Obviously this has nothing to do with C4C, but I just found it funny that of all the brands to improve the most this month it was one of the most expensive and exclusive brands in the US market.


Also, note that out of the more than 25 segments I have the market broken down into, only 3 did not have an increase in YTD sales per day... even those segments where C4C should not have had an effect... and the market as a whole went up over 6% compared to July's YTD numbers. I suspect even without C4C we'd have seen an upswing in sales this month, though of course there's no way to prove that one way or the other much less to estimate by how much.


Anyway, please look over the spreadsheets, and post your thoughts. Also, if you have an issue/comment on my classifications, especially the luxury vs premium issue, feel free to join the discussion in the "Size and Price Classification" thread Bravada linked to and that I have in my signature.

[N8s07ss]

Can anyone explain why the G3's sales nearly doubled?

[Z28x]

Originally Posted by N8s07ss

Can anyone explain why the G3's sales nearly doubled?

Pontiac is going away just as the G3 came out, so it is a collectible duh :p

[davidlane]

Originally Posted by N8s07ss

Can anyone explain why the G3's sales nearly doubled?

Like the GMC it is a better looking version of it's Chevy relative. Plus it would have been eligible for $4,500 C4C and there's a $2,500 rebate according to the Pontiac website. At that price they sold well.

[CUtiger08]

Originally Posted by davidlane

Like the GMC it is a better looking version of it's Chevy relative. Plus it would have been eligible for $4,500 C4C and there's a $2,500 rebate according to the Pontiac website. At that price they sold well.

Yep.

In fact, with just those two rebates, you could take a base model G3 home for under $7.5k... basically you get it for barely more than half price.

Also, it had a massive inventory built up from before the bankruptcy... IIRC at one point they had 2 years worth of G3's sitting around... but many other C4C eligble GM models were inventory limited due to bankruptcy and the fact that they aren't generally GM's big sellers.

[desmo9]

The benefits the imports have seen in this US-taxpayer-funded scheme are remarkable. The Feds could have thrown that $1 billion we just handed Japan and Korea into a mass transit program or an alternative energy development -- which puts money in the economy with jobs, and pays dividends down the road.

The current administration has completely lost my respect. I have no faith in his ability to apply sound policy to any complex issue, be it healthcare, housing, or autos.

Moreover, C4C wasn't even an equitable policy ... folks with one old but efficient beater got nothing. Those with an old van in the driveway along with a few other newer cars -- here's $4500 for another new car. But all taxpayers get to fund it. Simply unreal.

[PipeDaddy]

Originally Posted by desmo9

The benefits the imports have seen in this US-taxpayer-funded scheme are remarkable. The Feds could have thrown that $1 billion we just handed Japan and Korea into a mass transit program or an alternative energy development -- which puts money in the economy with jobs, and pays dividends down the road.

The current administration has completely lost my respect. I have no faith in his ability to apply sound policy to any complex issue, be it healthcare, housing, or autos.

Moreover, C4C wasn't even an equitable policy ... folks with one old but efficient beater got nothing. Those with an old van in the driveway along with a few other newer cars -- here's $4500 for another new car. But all taxpayers get to fund it. Simply unreal.

true, but obviously you are not even going to try to see the whole issue. on average, people who traded in cars increased their milage 60%. that means that more people can spend there money on other things other than fuel (also foreign) and could keep fuel cost down by decreasing demand and possibly avoid a war in the future in case another"oil luv'in" texan gets into office. think about the environmental savings of less pollution. we give our tax dollars for a collective good (i suppose). keep you ideology out of the picture and don't stop at the few issues with the program that make your point valid. look at the whole issue.

[PhishPhood]

Originally Posted by desmo9

The benefits the imports have seen in this US-taxpayer-funded scheme are remarkable. The Feds could have thrown that $1 billion we just handed Japan and Korea into a mass transit program or an alternative energy development -- which puts money in the economy with jobs, and pays dividends down the road.

The current administration has completely lost my respect. I have no faith in his ability to apply sound policy to any complex issue, be it healthcare, housing, or autos.

Moreover, C4C wasn't even an equitable policy ... folks with one old but efficient beater got nothing. Those with an old van in the driveway along with a few other newer cars -- here's $4500 for another new car. But all taxpayers get to fund it. Simply unreal.

Since neither the President nor the Dems thought this up, yet you somehow assign blame to them for what is probably the best stimulus program in recent history, your politically skewed viewpoint is suspect.

If you need substantiation of why the program was so good...go over to CNBC and look at some of the discussions there such as from the CEO of AutoNation. You may return to your shell of hatred now.

[Raydar]

Originally Posted by PipeDaddy

...on average, people who traded in cars increased their milage 60%. that means that more people can spend there money on other things other than fuel (also foreign) and could keep fuel cost down by decreasing demand...

Last I heard, the demand for fuel hasn't dropped off by any significant amount.
Sure, it's down from previous years, but that's due to the economy in general.
I read today that the supplies on hand had dropped more quickly than the producers had anticipated.

we give our tax dollars for a collective good (i suppose)...

Your supposition is just that. It certainly can't be priven as a matter of fact.
I happen to think it was an exceedingly bad idea, for a number of reasons. (My opinion of course. Right?)
And I certainly wasn't consulted before my tax dollars went to fund this catastrophe.

[Bravada]

I don't think anybody with a passing understanding of economics would find this programme any good apart from the roaring ghost of John Maynard Keyenes. I wouldn't even put that up for discussion, after all I don't think we've ever discussed creationism or the setup of the solar system. Let's move on please.

[63GrandSport001]

Originally Posted by CUtiger08

Thanks for posting this Bravada. I hope everyone likes the new format of the spreadsheets, I think it should be easier to read and hopefully more informative as well.


Also, in what can only be described as 'news of the wierd', guess what brand grew the most during C4C month, based on YTD sales per day... Hyundai, Toyota/Scion, Ford, Nissan, Chevy??

Nope... it was Maybach... with 21% jump in sales/day by going from 31 to 43 sales so far this year. Obviously this has nothing to do with C4C, but I just found it funny that of all the brands to improve the most this month it was one of the most expensive and exclusive brands in the US market.


Also, note that out of the more than 25 segments I have the market broken down into, only 3 did not have an increase in YTD sales per day... even those segments where C4C should not have had an effect... and the market as a whole went up over 6% compared to July's YTD numbers. I suspect even without C4C we'd have seen an upswing in sales this month, though of course there's no way to prove that one way or the other much less to estimate by how much.


Anyway, please look over the spreadsheets, and post your thoughts. Also, if you have an issue/comment on my classifications, especially the luxury vs premium issue, feel free to join the discussion in the "Size and Price Classification" thread Bravada linked to and that I have in my signature.

I extremely doubt that the market would have had up up tick................

Based on current market trend and the fact that some 600,000+ vehicles were sold under that program.

This time last year the market was heading south so at the best without C4C the down turn wouldn't have been so bad.

[PistonsFan]

Originally Posted by Raydar

Last I heard, the demand for fuel hasn't dropped off by any significant amount.
Sure, it's down from previous years, but that's due to the economy in general.
I read today that the supplies on hand had dropped more quickly than the producers had anticipated.

Oh... so far from the truth. We are still in a decline in terms of oil consumption and they currently have over-supply.

The US has taken a big decline in oil consumption in 2008 and 2009. Some predictions predict we will return to a consumption growth trend some time in 2010. Much of this depends on China's growth.

[2002z7d]

Thanks for the great post and compiling all of this data!

[Ming]

Nice work! Gotta love the Pontiac G3 bump.