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Thread: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by AMERICA 123 View Post
    Another outstanding post - thank you for doing the math, Autoplaybook.
    Between him, you and a few others I can always count on quality commentary. On another note how can anyone who believe that the entry or at the very least near luxury Regal competes with the mass market MALIBU competitor (Kia Optima) be taken seriously?

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Autoplaybook is very correct, moving forward ALL GM divisions are expected to stand alone hence the gnashing at the teeth and pulling of the hair regarding Opel. Buick's biggest market is indeed China, and quite frankly were they not profitable in the US then Pontiac or Saturn would have took their place in this market. So while China may provide an avenue for Buick to make more fiscal sense, GM would simply not lose significant money just to keep Buick in a failing market for the Chinese market's benefit alone.

    Does not that just sound ridiculous that GM is keeping Buick in the US only so they can rely on intangible benefits to the Chinese market based on them having a clue or caring that Buick is no longer sold in the US?

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by germeezy1 View Post
    Does not that just sound ridiculous that GM is keeping Buick in the US only so they can rely on intangible benefits to the Chinese market based on them having a clue or caring that Buick is no longer sold in the US?
    "Does not that just"


    Well that part does sound a bit ridiculous, but not the rest......

    Certainly GM wants Buick to be successful and profitable here in the the US, but if Pontiac had the reputation of Buick and were selling 600,000/year in China, we'd have Pontiac today, and not Buick - foolish to think otherwise.


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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by SierraGS View Post
    Congrats on your great new Regal.



    I was at both a Buick and Kia dealer this afternoon and can say without a doubt the Optima is a Regal competitor and a very strong one.

    I do my homework - something others might try.
    Oh ?

    Oh really ?


    - doing your homework is a good thing - doing it poorly is not.

    The first two disconnects with reality - and your assignment have to do with Kia and Hyundai, not Buick.


    Pray tell, what does your 'homework' tell you about how the the cheaper but mildly differentiated Optima relates to the more expensive Sonata ....... and then the Elantra........

    And then the questions to ask in this fantasy autogame of yours would be - who does the Sonata then compete with and that Elantra ..... and the Forte.



    Quote Originally Posted by bballr4567 View Post
    Sure thing boss.

    Again, no matter how much you try, the Optima competes with the Malibu.
    - and big half step down - they overlap rather than match up directly.

    Optima, Elantra and Forte still have that slot for those that want more in the direction of a midsizer but have closer to compact money to spend - especially in terms of the note /monthly payment.

    Quote Originally Posted by akbar View Post
    Well last year they had 1 less selling day than this year; By my calculations based on your retail numbers, they sold 3% less retail
    You refer to the dsr %.

    Consider the name - and you will see your error.

    daily sales rate.

    Also, kinda' silly is it not, to say that a monthly unit volume count is not how many vehicles were sold that month - yes ????


    You are confusing a daily rate of sale for a monthly total of units sold.

    Quote Originally Posted by germeezy1 View Post
    Between him, you and a few others I can always count on quality commentary. On another note how can anyone who believe that the entry or at the very least near luxury Regal competes with the mass market MALIBU competitor (Kia Optima) be taken seriously?
    - and yourself.

    And then we have the above + the fact although both brands are selling very strongly, Hyundai and Kia still overlap more than intended - or is desirable. ( All they know - and can afford to do. ) Hyundai in fact is slightly bent out of shape as to how it is currently playing out between the two.
    Last edited by AMERICA 123; 04-07-2012 at 12:07 PM.
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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by emh View Post
    Clearly, Ford is cheating. They are selling 110% while everyone else is limited to 100%
    LOL. Good catch.

    Quote Originally Posted by G8tor View Post
    How is Ford only up 5% better news than GM up 12% and Ford had a very disproportionate ratio of fleet sales compared to GM?

    GM has discontinued models as well. Lucerne, Colorado and Canyon to name a few.

    Not sure I agree Sonic is taking any wind of of Cruze's sails as Cruze had 7th straight month of 20,000 plus units.
    Without making any kind of value argument myself the pundits are giving GM a hard time for March for the following reasons.

    1: While fleet sales at GM are very arguably not out of proportion with the rest of the industry fleet sales for GM in general have increased quite a bit compared to the same period last year and March continued that trend. We still don't have any real specifics at this point, I wouldn't expect a detailed breakdown of March fleet numbers before late April at the earliest, all we really know right now is that the increase appears to have come entirely from the Chevy brand.

    2: The pundits are arguing that GM has been holding ground at best, or losing ground at worst, thus far this year on the retail front essentially arguing that increased fleet sales are the only reason GM sales numbers have improved this year when compared to the first quarter of last year. For what it is worth they are giving Toyota some grief on the same basis.

    As for Sonic stealing sales from Cruze, I actually think that this is very much taking place but I don't think Chevy is alone in this by any means. I have stated before that I think this is a reality that virtually every mainstream manufacturer with strong B and C segment offerings faces, particularly as B segment vehicles continue to grow in size. The only exceptions I find here are companies like Honda within which the B and C segment offerings are so different that serious cannibalism seems unlikely.
    Last edited by syr74; 04-08-2012 at 03:38 PM.

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Ed753 View Post
    Certainly GM wants Buick to be successful and profitable here in the the US, but if Pontiac had the reputation of Buick and were selling 600,000/year in China, we'd have Pontiac today, and not Buick - foolish to think otherwise.
    Personally, I think GM was playing "russian roulette" with it's domestic brand management. Every 2 years a different brand would get some product from the General.

    If GM had gone belly-up in 2006, Saturn would have been saved and both Buick & Pontiac killed. If it was 2004, Pontiac would have survived. So, I think Buick mainly "got lucky" (was in the right place in the product pipeline) moreso than any Chinese-based master plan.

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by syr74 View Post
    As for Sonic stealing sales from Cruze, I actually think that this is very much taking place but I don't think Chevy is alone in this by any means. I have stated before that I think this is a reality that virtually every mainstream manufacturer with strong B and C segment offerings faces, particularly as B segment vehicles continue to grow in size. The only exceptions I find here are companies like Honda within which the B and C segment offerings are so different that serious cannibalism seems unlikely.
    VERY astute observation.

    It makes sense that the Sonic would steal some sales from the Cruze, since the Cruze only grew in width and price over its predecessor. So people who wanted a compact at the cheaper end of the scale are now moving to the Sonic because they get more features for the money, with only a light sacrifice in vehicle size.

    However, the Cruze is probably taking a few midsize intenders from the Malibu, as well. And 21,607 Cruzes delivered last month is not a small number. Not small at all. And it's not like the Cruze would be pulling down 30k units without the Sonic. The Cruze never did that in its BEST month when Civic/Corolla/Focus supplies were at their lowest.

    So the strategy seems to be working. People like the Sonic AND Cruze. Both are selling quite well. They both provide a hedge against each other in the event a customer finds one too expensive, big, too ill-equipped, or small. The other car acts as a viable option to keeping the customer. And each car is clearly drawing their own.

    This was bound to happen, but it's happening in the best way possible...with excellent sales figures for both models.
    Peace,

    Autoplaybook



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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by vcs2600 View Post
    Personally, I think GM was playing "russian roulette" with it's domestic brand management. Every 2 years a different brand would get some product from the General.

    If GM had gone belly-up in 2006, Saturn would have been saved and both Buick & Pontiac killed. If it was 2004, Pontiac would have survived. So, I think Buick mainly "got lucky" (was in the right place in the product pipeline) moreso than any Chinese-based master plan.
    There is certainly some truth to this observation. Buick had one successful new product out in 2008/09 (Enclave), with another all-new one completely done and waiting to launch (LaCrosse). Pontiac's and Saturn's product revitalizations had already taken place (to underwhelming effect), so the next raft of new product was still a ways out.

    There are many reasons GM kept Buick in the midst of the GFC. Profits. The product pipeline. Actual synergies with Opel. Potential synergies with China. Keeping a car brand to support and complement GMC. GM's ability to design cars that hit CAFE AND adhered to their brands' values. Being the founding GM brand in the midst of the company's 100th anniversary. And more.

    There's a big, complex picture out there to look at. Yes, Buick was in the right place at the right time in a lot of ways. However, I still believe industry and customer response to the Enclave showed GM there was a path forward for Buick. That there was realistically attainable potential waiting to be tapped. And this, combined with the reasons listed above, made the case for the brand.

    Right now, we're seeing one Buick ramp up, one go away, two age (albeit gracefully), and one struggle to find an audience. But new metal is coming very, very soon. So we're at an odd point for Buick. But the news isn't all bad, either (see: fleet mix).
    Last edited by autoplaybook; 04-08-2012 at 06:24 PM.
    Peace,

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by autoplaybook View Post
    VERY astute observation.
    Thank you sir!

    Quote Originally Posted by autoplaybook
    It makes sense that the Sonic would steal some sales from the Cruze, since the Cruze only grew in width and price over its predecessor. So people who wanted a compact at the cheaper end of the scale are now moving to the Sonic because they get more features for the money, with only a light sacrifice in vehicle size.

    However, the Cruze is probably taking a few midsize intenders from the Malibu, as well. And 21,607 Cruzes delivered last month is not a small number. Not small at all. And it's not like the Cruze would be pulling down 30k units without the Sonic. The Cruze never did that in its BEST month when Civic/Corolla/Focus supplies were at their lowest.

    So the strategy seems to be working. People like the Sonic AND Cruze. Both are selling quite well. They both provide a hedge against each other in the event a customer finds one too expensive, big, too ill-equipped, or small. The other car acts as a viable option to keeping the customer. And each car is clearly drawing their own.

    This was bound to happen, but it's happening in the best way possible...with excellent sales figures for both models.
    I agree wholeheartedly.

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by syr74 View Post
    LOL. Good catch.



    Without making any kind of value argument myself the pundits are giving GM a hard time for March for the following reasons.

    1: While fleet sales at GM are very arguably not out of proportion with the rest of the industry fleet sales for GM in general have increased quite a bit compared to the same period last year and March continued that trend. We still don't have any real specifics at this point, I wouldn't expect a detailed breakdown of March fleet numbers before late April at the earliest, all we really know right now is that the increase appears to have come entirely from the Chevy brand.
    That statement is not remotely accurate.

    GM's fleet percentage has been lower this year in March and overall, very close to target. In March, GM was at 26% fleet.
    Last edited by PistonsFan; 04-08-2012 at 08:39 PM.

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by PistonsFan View Post
    That statement is not remotely accurate.

    GM's fleet percentage has been lower this year in March and overall, very close to target. In March, GM was at 26% fleet.
    GM Retail/Fleet sales % split as reported by Automotive News

    January 2011: Retail: 78% (139,100 units) / Fleet: 22% (39,800 units)
    January 2012: Retail: 70% (117,000 units) / Fleet: 30% (50,200 units)

    February 2011: Retail: 79% (163,300 units) / Fleet: 21% (43,700 units)
    February 2012: Retail: 75% (156,800 units) / Fleet: 25% (52,500 units)

    What I'm seeing above shows lower retail sales for the first two months of the year as compared to 2011 and an overall sales increase for January and February owed entirely to meaningfully larger fleet sales numbers. To be fair March does look better, but fleet sales are still up for March although percentage of fleet sales appears to be identical to the percentage reported for last March at 26%. And while GM did see their first sales increase on the retail side of the equation for March, it wasn't enough to offset the retail sales decreases for January and February and GM is finishing the first quarter down on the retail sales side of the equation and significantly up on the fleet side compared to 2011.

    Personally I have no problem with the fleet sales percentages GM has been running this year, to my eye they are more or less inline with industry norms given the GM product mix. On the other hand, I do think that a retail sales decrease for the first quarter as a whole in a market where several competitors are regularly lodging retail sales increases is a cause for concern.

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by syr74 View Post
    GM Retail/Fleet sales % split as reported by Automotive News

    January 2011: Retail: 78% (139,100 units) / Fleet: 22% (39,800 units)
    January 2012: Retail: 70% (117,000 units) / Fleet: 30% (50,200 units)

    February 2011: Retail: 79% (163,300 units) / Fleet: 21% (43,700 units)
    February 2012: Retail: 75% (156,800 units) / Fleet: 25% (52,500 units)

    What I'm seeing above shows lower retail sales for the first two months of the year as compared to 2011 and an overall sales increase for January and February owed entirely to meaningfully larger fleet sales numbers. To be fair March does look better, but fleet sales are still up for March although percentage of fleet sales appears to be identical to the percentage reported for last March at 26%. And while GM did see their first sales increase on the retail side of the equation for March, it wasn't enough to offset the retail sales decreases for January and February and GM is finishing the first quarter down on the retail sales side of the equation and significantly up on the fleet side compared to 2011.

    Personally I have no problem with the fleet sales percentages GM has been running this year, to my eye they are more or less inline with industry norms given the GM product mix. On the other hand, I do think that a retail sales decrease for the first quarter as a whole in a market where several competitors are regularly lodging retail sales increases is a cause for concern.
    GM 2012 Fleet sales:
    Jan 30%
    Feb 25%
    Mar 26%

    GM 2011 Fleet sales:
    Full year 25.5%

    GM has told analysts that they target 25%-28% fleet.

    It was higher in January because retail sales were up 70% in January 2011 due to huge retail incentive spending. When you pile on retail incentives, fleet becomes a smaller percentage of the pie. That's why January 2011 was only at 22% fleet. In addition, in the January sales call for analysts, GM mentioned that part of the uptick was due to in an increase in fleet sales of heavy duty trucks to commercial buyers.

    But this discussion is really irrelavent. The analysts have not been concerned about GM fleet% at all. They are interested in product mix (trucks vs. cars).

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by PistonsFan View Post
    GM 2012 Fleet sales:
    Jan 30%
    Feb 25%
    Mar 26%

    GM 2011 Fleet sales:
    Full year 25.5%

    GM has told analysts that they target 25%-28% fleet.

    It was higher in January because retail sales were up 70% in January 2011 due to huge retail incentive spending. When you pile on retail incentives, fleet becomes a smaller percentage of the pie. That's why January 2011 was only at 22% fleet. In addition, in the January sales call for analysts, GM mentioned that part of the uptick was due to in an increase in fleet sales of heavy duty trucks to commercial buyers.

    But this discussion is really irrelavent. The analysts have not been concerned about GM fleet% at all. They are interested in product mix (trucks vs. cars).
    Analysts have absolutely shown concern that GM is leaning on fleet sales in an effort to increase overall sales numbers and hide the fact that retail sales are down relative to last year. No, specific fleet sales mix isn't the problem and as I stated earlier I find nothing wrong with the retail/fleet sales mix. However, declining retail sales are a problem and fleet sales got a highlight by pundits because GM leaned a bit harder on the same than last year almost certainly to allow them to present higher overall sales figures even in the face of declining retail market share.

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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by syr74 View Post
    GM Retail/Fleet sales % split as reported by Automotive News

    January 2011: Retail: 78% (139,100 units) / Fleet: 22% (39,800 units)
    January 2012: Retail: 70% (117,000 units) / Fleet: 30% (50,200 units)

    February 2011: Retail: 79% (163,300 units) / Fleet: 21% (43,700 units)
    February 2012: Retail: 75% (156,800 units) / Fleet: 25% (52,500 units)

    What I'm seeing above shows lower retail sales for the first two months of the year as compared to 2011 and an overall sales increase for January and February owed entirely to meaningfully larger fleet sales numbers. To be fair March does look better, but fleet sales are still up for March although percentage of fleet sales appears to be identical to the percentage reported for last March at 26%. And while GM did see their first sales increase on the retail side of the equation for March, it wasn't enough to offset the retail sales decreases for January and February and GM is finishing the first quarter down on the retail sales side of the equation and significantly up on the fleet side compared to 2011.

    Personally I have no problem with the fleet sales percentages GM has been running this year, to my eye they are more or less inline with industry norms given the GM product mix. On the other hand, I do think that a retail sales decrease for the first quarter as a whole in a market where several competitors are regularly lodging retail sales increases is a cause for concern.
    Not really - in all ways possible.

    What you are seeing is a GM with abnormally low fleet numbers in that first quarter of 2011.


    The other main point would be this.


    Everything you are saying about GM besides being wide of the mark for GM, actually applies in spades and with more weight to it to Ford - they have stalled and or weakened in the retail end of things for 2011 - and what we have for 2012.

    I would imagine this is why we have all the gibberish about Ford's actual numbers, about GM's, about any kind of objective comparison between the two - and the big duck on making the comparison in a useful sense.

    And the loss of Ford bragging factoids concerning retail marketshare / general marketshare accompanied with renewed efforts to reframe Fleet as a ( really ) 'good' thing.

    Here in this post -

    Quote Originally Posted by syr74 View Post
    Analysts have absolutely shown concern that GM is leaning on fleet sales in an effort to increase overall sales numbers and hide the fact that retail sales are down relative to last year.
    - you literally have GM and Ford 100 % mixed up.


    Anyway, put up Ford's last 15 - 18 months the same way as you did the two for GM - and you will see where the real problem is.

    Btw, did they or did they not pay on the recent executive bonus portion tied to retail market share improvement ?


    *********


    ( Also, in a related way, right now, it is worse than useless to talk about car fleet / car rental fleet w/o including all the imports that have been playing such as they have.)



    Retail vs. fleet sales
    Estimated retail and fleet volume for March 2012 vs. March 2011
    March March 3 mos. 3 mos.
    March 2012 March 2011 3 mos. 2012 3 mos. 2011
    2012 % retail 2011 % retail March 2012 % retail 2011 % retail 3 mos.
    Retail: retail sales share retail sales share % change retail sales share retail sales share % change
    General Motors 171,400 74% 150,300 73% 14% 446,000 73% 452,500 76% -1%
    Toyota Motor 176,500 87% 156,800 89% 13% 413,400 85% 380,200 88% 9%
    Ford Motor 152,600 68% 137,700 65% 11% 370,700 69% 329,100 66% 13%
    American Honda* 124,500 98% 131,000 98% -5% 313,800 98% 301,800 98% 4%
    Chrysler Group 114,600 70% 80,000 66% 43% 275,900 69% 196,900 69% 40%
    Hyundai-Kia 114,400 90% 93,900 88% 22% 274,100 91% 215,700 87% 27%
    Nissan N.A. 102,500 75% 100,100 83% 2% 243,300 75% 229,100 80% 6%
    Top 7 956,500 79% 849,800 79% 13% 2,337,200 79% 2,105,300 79% 11%
    March March 3 mos. 3 mos.
    March 2012 March 2011 3 mos. 2012 3 mos. 2011
    2012 % fleet 2011 % fleet March 2012 % fleet 2011 % fleet 3 mos.
    Fleet: fleet sales share fleet sales share % change fleet sales share fleet sales share % change
    Ford Motor 70,800 32% 75,100 35% -6% 168,500 31% 167,600 34% 1%
    General Motors 59,600 26% 56,300 27% 6% 162,300 27% 140,000 24% 16%
    Chrysler Group 48,800 30% 41,700 34% 17% 122,200 31% 90,100 31% 36%
    Nissan N.A. 33,900 25% 21,000 17% 61% 79,100 25% 56,300 20% 41%
    Toyota Motor 26,800 13% 19,400 11% 38% 73,900 15% 53,700 12% 38%
    Hyundai-Kia 12,900 10% 12,200 12% 5% 27,500 9% 31,700 13% -13%
    American Honda* 2,500 2% 2,700 2% -5% 6,400 2% 6,200 2% 3%
    Top 7 255,300 21% 228,400 21% 12% 639,900 21% 545,600 21% 17%
    *Automotive News estimate
    Sources: Manufacturers, industry sources
    Last edited by AMERICA 123; 04-14-2012 at 02:25 AM.
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    Re: Chevrolet and GMC Drive GM’s March Sales up 12 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by AMERICA 123 View Post
    Not really - in all ways possible.

    What you are seeing is a GM with abnormally low fleet numbers in that first quarter of 2011.


    The other main point would be this.


    Everything you are saying about GM besides being wide of the mark for GM, actually applies in spades and with more weight to it to Ford - they have stalled and or weakened in the retail end of things for 2011 - and what we have for 2012.

    I would imagine thios is why we have all the gibberish about Ford's actual numbers, about GM's about any kind of objective comparison between the two - and the big duck on making the comparison in a useful sense.
    We agree on one thing, GM fleet sales numbers were freakishly low for 2011. Unfortunately, that doesn't really explain why GM is experiencing a retail sales decrease for 2012 thus far for the year. As for a comparison of Ford and GM sales numbers, feel free to try and spin it however you want the reality is that Ford and several other players have seen a retail sales increase for every month this year thus far while GM just hasn't.

    You can't find a win in everything, and right now for the year as a whole there just isn't a win to be had for GM vis-a-vis retail sales. March did bring a better month of retail sales for GM, but we'll have to see if that sticks before a celebration is in order.

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