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Oz Car Market May 2017 - back on track for record, Holden down 7%

4K views 40 replies 13 participants last post by  mikmak 
#1 ·
http://www.caradvice.com.au/556571/may-2017-vfacts-new-vehicle-sales/

Top 10 brands May 2017


Make Sales Change from May 2016


Toyota - 19,876 +16% (New models, beneficiary of Hyundai changeover on I30)

Mazda - 9903 +3% ( " " " " )

Hyundai - 8312 - 8% (old i30 still on runout, building stocks of new)

Ford - 7617 +16% (almost all off back of Ranger, other lines moribund)

Holden - 6917 -7% (less % decrease than other months this year but tracking predictably - less than 400 sales in front of Mitsu; who will win fifth for the year?)

Mitsubishi - 6521 + 6% (continues to shine despite ordinary model range - probably value buyers)

Nissan - 5083 - 9 % (seriously in trouble)

Volkswagen - 5080 + 11 % (continuing to recover from dieselgate and DSGgate)

Kia - 5005 + 41 % (major improver in this space, doing better than Hyundai in some models)

Subaru - 4146 + 4 per cent (steady)


Top 10 brands May 2017

Make - Model - Sales


Toyota Hilux 4154

Ford Ranger 4069 (cracked 4000 - impressive)

Toyota Corolla 3160

Hyundai i30 2683(includes old model)

Mazda 3 2594

Mazda CX-5 2298

Toyota Camry 2233

Hyundai Tucson 2135

Nissan X-Trail 1992

Toyota RAV4 1977

Holden Colorado 1924

Holden Commodore 1841

Note small hatch/sedans are trending solidly downwards. When new I30 arrives in numbers, CX5 and RAV4 will probably overtake the Corolla and 3. Wind-down of local Camrys has started, last option pack specials are on the market for local build. Many Commodore models are now finished and on way to dealers.

Tinbox Thai ute sales are up because of government depreciation concessions for business. 4000 Ranger sales is impressive - but it's still about 50% of large Ford Australian made car sales at their peak in the nineties. Which shows, even with more sales likely this year than ever, the best-selling numbers are down because of market fragmentation and proliferation of new segments like CUV/SUVs.
 
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#4 · (Edited)
It's not the 30 dealers who've been given the arse by Holden. It's the 10 times that number that have their Holden dealership on the backburner. The dealer's we bought two Astras and the Monaro through used to be so busy you had to get there before eight to get your car in the service bay inluding Saturday mornings. Now, it's virtually deserted. They don't even open the parts section Saturday morning anymore. Used to be four deep at the counter. The lot used to be brimming with new cars, they had to hold some at the back of the used car yard across the road. Now, it's half empty.
 
#8 ·
Last month - Colorado. Hardly surprising, a lot of individual models like Utes and wagons, I think they've built the last ones. Now it's mainly V8s and a few HSVs. I think if the V6s aren't gone it's not long now. That's one of the reasons they're not pushing them at all. The remaining new cars at dealers are in some cases the only cars in some models.
 
#9 · (Edited)
Here's the Ford sales breakdown for May,
Ranger and Mustang lead the way

Ranger.......4,069 (4x4: 3,384, 4x2: 685)
Mustang.....1,351
Falcon............12
Falcon Ute........4
Fiesta...........118
Focus...........469
Mondeo.........236
Ecosport........104
Escape..........537
Everest.........378
Territory........138
 
#11 ·
Absolutely.
Between Ranger and Mustang's exceptional month, that's well over 5,400 of Ford's 7,600 sales.
Imagine if those good Ranger sales were replaced with Colorado's...there's 2000 gone before
we discount the very good Mustang month..

I'm wondering why Mustang scored twice the regular sales last month, maybe two boat deliveries?
 
#12 ·
From goauto.com.au

New products to help Holden maintain third place on sales charts

HOLDEN has banked on this year’s fresh product onslaught to help it cling to fourth position on the brand-sales charts, despite the impending effects of October’s factory shut-down, as well as Ford and Mitsubishi closing in on its numbers.

Five years ago Holden was second only to Toyota for annual brand sales, recording 114,665 sales in 2012. It was overtaken by Mazda in 2015 and then Hyundai in 2016 as sales slumped to 94,308 units last year, while the top three brands continued to post six-figure tallies.

According to sales data to the end of May 2017, Holden’s 32,840-unit haul has fallen by another 10.4 per cent year-to-date, remaining behind Hyundai (37,568 and down 10.7 per cent), and with Ford (31,582 and down 0.7 per cent) and Mitsubishi (30,407 and up 6.5 per cent) hounding at its heels.

etc etc then:

Holden director of corporate communications Sean Poppitt, meanwhile, placed a clear target in front of the brand for 2017.

“If we can finish this year selling one more car than we did last year, I consider that a win,” he told GoAuto.

“Because that would be the first time in probably 15 years that we haven’t gone back on market share. Now, the market’s going to decide that. The strength of what we do is going to decide (it). We’re not getting ahead of ourselves. We know how big the challenge is, but you’ve got to have a great mindset.

“If you’re not here to do that, then you might as well go home now.”

more at link:

http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mellor.nsf/story2/F7111D46B326B4C5CA258141002094B2


Hyundai needs a Ranger / Hilux etc competitor.
 
#13 · (Edited)
The high monthly Mustang number according to one of the Carsales editors in feedback is because the last delivery of Mustangs now includes all the backorders.

That includes all the factory-build options, special order trim/colour combos. So in other words, the market is starting to saturate. Which is what you expect with coupes. The car's had a stellar run but all good things come to an end.
 
#15 · (Edited)
You missed the point.
Those back orders have been waiting ages because they are different/specials
and does no go to the current long order list. A similar thing happened with
deliveries to Europe in March when sales went over 2,000.

Normally, Ford has restricted deliveries to around 600 or so as available on shipping,
getting 1300 here in a month is unheard of, I'm hoping that the precedent becomes
more of a norm to stay in front of orders which have not slowed since ordering began.
I'm not saying that Mustang will settle at 1300 but it might be somewhere around 800/mth.
 
#18 · (Edited)
We still don't know how deep the Mustang market really is and while the sales restriction
is in place, probably ensuring we don't see the tail end too quick. 10,000 a year is a little
much I'd agree but until the the waiting line shortens a bit more it's a bit open...

At the moment, those people who ordered last December will be receiving their cars now, so roughly 5 months.
The back orders are to make sure that all the MY17s will be delivered before the plant switches in October,
there's only five more shipments before that happens.

There;s some big updates coming in MY18, 10-speed auto, significant and engine improvements
although we're yet to see the official figures, you can bet that they're enough to encourage
existing Mustang owners to trade up. Of course, some won't be ready to do that but I'm
betting that some won't resist the temptation.

Considering the majority of them go for $65K or more, it's definitely been a good ride
one that could see a new lease of life with more track pack options on both models.
I think Ford needs to add more Ecoboost buyers to the ledger, do that and higher
sales might be possible.
 
#19 ·
I think Mustang will sell good for a while yet, it's easy to point out the traditional coupe sales in Australia and say Mustang will follow that trend but Mustang is popular for a few other reasons that don't necessarily include the fact it's a coupe. For one thing it's an "American Muscle Car" (and yes I know it's a Pony car not a muscle car but the average guy sees it as a muscle car) and the other factor is what other RWD V8 Ford can you currently buy here? and once Commodore is gone there'll be nothing V8 RWD that's even remotely affordable for the average person.

The closest thing we have in recent time to compare to Mustang is the modern Monaro and it had to compete with Commodore and Falcon sales, Mustang doesn't have to worry about Falcon and won't be worrying about Commodore for much longer either.
 
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#20 · (Edited)
Mustang is one of those cars that catch the Ford devotees eyes, it's a gotta have for a decent number
that are now deprived of their Falcon or any other performance replacement. So Mustang becomes the
special drive car with sedan duties covered by another car or SUV.

Edit,
Just saw this post on Ford Enthuiast Forum form sales staff at a dealership on the sunshine coast:
Hi all, as a guess, I think we might start seeing actual yard stock by about June/July.
This is new territory for us because it's never been available to sell off the floor before!
(unless it was a fall over)
I'm actually pretty excited to have a yard with Mustang for sale like any other car.
So dealerships finally getting to have some floor stock, time to go to work on the walk-ins...
 
#23 · (Edited)
Mustang is one of those cars that catch the Ford devotees eyes, it's a gotta have for a decent number
that are now deprived of their Falcon or any other performance replacement. So Mustang becomes the
special drive car with sedan duties covered by another car or SUV.

Edit,
Just saw this post on Ford Enthuiast Forum form sales staff at a dealership on the sunshine coast:


So dealerships finally getting to have some floor stock, time to go to work on the walk-ins...
I think a lot of Calais and Fairmont buyers have already gone to the German 3, or even Jag, Volvo, or others. Monaro buyers weren't by and large SS or sedan buyers. Because it wasn't a practical car and at $60k large was dearer than a Calais V8 with similar equipment. I know people who traded out of their second or third bimmer to buy a Monaro. I encountered a lot of reverse snobbery from SS owners who couldn't see why the car was worth another 30% on top of a similarly equipped sedan.

Anyway, we only have to see what happens from here on in. It should be apparent by the end of the year. I'm betting it'll settle somewhere around 200 a month within a year. Even that is good - I would have said 1000 a year by the third year.

I know people like my mate with the XR6Ts (BA and FG) he's interested in the looks and drive, but he'd never own one. Can't swing it when he's got family and it's too dear. He's looking at leasing German cars to replace his FG, and his BA's quicker than a Mustang and more comfortable.
 
#21 ·
Well I've just added one for Subaru for June...
 
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#24 · (Edited)
The other side of this is the Aussie $ sitting around 75 cents is holding prices reasonably flat,
that combined with the decent upgrade coming in October may see interest continue.

Not to be conceited but Mustang is not like every other coupe seen in Australia,
this one comes with a lot more pre-packed halo effect for those wanting a V8 Ford
and unlike Monaro, it doesn't have to compete with a lower cost sedan brother.

We're really in uncharted waters here where history of coupes may not really apply
as most of those Mustang orders have been taken on cars with up to 12 months waiting
but fortunately, we're now down to around 4 or 5 months wait and starting to see a little
dealer stock.

For me, Ford hasn't really worked the Ecoboost side of the market because dealers need stock
to show and educate potential buyers, maybe this phase two opens up those new buyers..
 
#25 ·
I've driven both the GT & EB. The EB sucks. If I have to take to a tuner, I may as well get a Focus RS & tune that. It's quicker anyway. MY2018 can't come soon enough, so I guess they're offloading MY2017. MY2018 GT will be worth considering, but they need to have their fit & finish & ANCAP issues sorted. Still, >7k redline and magneride may indeed tempt me. If I opt for the 10R90 does that still qualify as GM? ;)
 
#26 · (Edited)
Basically every GT coming to Australia is a customer order, the only way that
you get an available car is if a sales falls over and that's quite rare.

Dealers are only now seeing some loose stock but it's still very limited.
The EB Mustang is for a different type of buyer, one that Ford hasn't
really chased so far, the tuner kits for themmake quite a difference.

Good luck getting hold of a Focus RS, all sold out and around 4 month wait on Mustang..

Ford was lead development on the 10R90 while GM took the lead on the FWD 9AT.
 
#27 ·
Ive just been reliably informed that the last of the MY17s arrive in September and that
the MY18s won't show up for around 12 month (September 2018) or when US MY19 rolls.
There's a few loose cars around but other than that once september comes, then
that's it for 12 months.
 
#28 ·
So if they're delivering less than 2 thou a month my 10 grand is looking pretty good - I'd say they're sniffing the wind and seeing the orders for the current model are drying up. It's good if they're going to limit supply to what they think will sell because nothing kills the 'want' factor faster than reams of discounted cars on dealer lots which also devalue used cars and makes it less likely people will update. That trashes resale. You expect it with a sedan, because you are updatng that every few years and want people to update plus it's less of an upfront price and less depreciation.

No offence, but the Mustang is a Ford, and an old-skool musclecar. It's not a Ferrari and hardly rare. For what it is, it's moderately quick in a brutish way but not that fast. Being a biggish V8 and not light it's thirsty. True, it'll probably be the only US-based V8 to sell in numbers as the 300 is stalling and even the Jeep SRT8s seem to be less cool. But that market is limited and it will saturate.
 
#29 ·
No offense taken, I'm just surprised that we are looking at 12 month's gap in deliveries
I'm checking with some contacts associated with FRAP who can shed some light,
maybe it's not as bad as it seems (usually a six month gap for exports)

So if they're delivering less than 2 thou a month my 10 grand is looking pretty good - I'd say they're sniffing the wind and seeing the orders for the current model are drying up. It's good if they're going to limit supply to what they think will sell because nothing kills the 'want' factor faster than reams of discounted cars on dealer lots which also devalue used cars and makes it less likely people will update. That trashes resale. You expect it with a sedan, because you are updatng that every few years and want people to update plus it's less of an upfront price and less depreciation.
I think it goes more to conservative allocation limits and model changeover phasing - it may in fact work
to achieve the objectives you mentioned. No one knows the depth of the market but Ford would probably
rather keep those guaranteed orders coming than face an unscheduled market.

We're pretty much agreeing but from slightly different perspectives, it's a shame that Ford didn't brave up
on the EB V6 Fusion Sport, a 2.7 TTV6 AWD car may have added a different factor to the mix but they
just couldn't take the risk, there was no evidence to suggest that XR6T type buyers would embrace it.
I think that might have been a mistake but maybe FWD Commodore will test market interest in a V6...
 
#30 ·
Market research may have indicated a resentment against an AWD V6 but that may have been with a view to it being a replacement for a Falcon. With the Fusion /Mondeo they have that delineation that perhaps may not emote the same furrowed brows.

In reality though it may just be me wishing that Ford brought something over to lift the Mondeo lineup. Having a 2.0 turbo diesel as their flagship does not sit well with me.


I really wanted the Mondeo to be more inspiring.
 
#31 ·
Exactly, the 2.7 EB and AWD would have done that, especially if Prodrive or Tickford
got their hands on it... Disappointing that Ford didn't try, the rest of the Mondeo
line u doesn't stand out from the crowd and I guess that's why sales are low.

Hearing that MY18 Mustang Job 1 is now sometime in October, so the US will probably
build its domestic inventory first through November / December before introducing the
Export LHDs and RHDs so maybe Australia getting MY18s mid next year is accurate.
 
#33 ·
I drove a VXR insignia back to back with a Redline sedan and the only area the VXR was better was tech levels, the fact the redline while being a bigger car weighed less then the VXR an handled and steered better. Don't get me wrong i did love driving the VXR and a 2nd hand would be an interesting prospect at the right price but as far as a drivers car I found even the SV6 to be better.
 
#34 ·
I liked the way the Insignia drove and particularly how it tensed up and cornered. As I mentioned in my review it didn't have the ferocity of a V8. Not even close, but it's a different market. At 50k it was also playing against Kia Optima GT, Skoda Superb, Passat and beat them all on character. It's main problem was practicality (primarily interior space) which none of the others suffer from. That's when it had to fall back into the performance space where it's position against an SS was untenable. Don't forget the resentment against the Insignia replacing the Commodore too.

I'd park one next to the other if my garage allowed.

The EB 2.7 Mondeo would be an interesting side bar for the wannabe Mustang owner that really actually needs room for the kids. Not really the same car at all but to appear sporty in a sea of SUVs is bound to be cool again soon enough.
 
#39 ·
They got to mid $50's about 2 months ago and now they're in freefall..... Last auction struggling to get a bid in the high $40's, which reflects the market for Commodore at present. Plenty of people keen on the 2017 builds but the 2016's have collapsed. Some dealers still have new/demo 2016's in stock. The market is flooded with low mileage V8's at present.
 
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