Aussie Car ReSale Survey - Holden Commodore Depreciating $30,000 In Just Four Years

[JoeT]

What Type Of Cars Hold Their Value The Best, And The Worst?

Jez Spinks
10 July 2007
www.drive.com.au

Buy a new Ford Falcon or Holden Commodore today and you will lose $30,000 in just four years.

In fact, nearly half of all new-car buyers will tear up at least $20,000 in the first four years of ownership, an exclusive Drive.com.au depreciation survey reveals.

Depreciation - also known as resale values or residuals - is the highest single cost involved in owning a car.

The predicted losses for the Falcon and Commodore are based on figures obtained from industry resale experts Glass's Guide, which show that large cars depreciate faster than any other type of car.

According to Glass's, the average resale value for a large car after four years of ownership is 34 per cent - 10 per cent lower than the overall market average.

The Falcon - which has an average retail price of $48,014 (including FPVs) - fares slightly worse with an average resale of 33 per cent. The Commodore (average price $49,332, including HSV variants) is slightly higher at 36 per cent.

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Are Resales Better Or Worse Than A Decade Ago?

Jez Spinks
10 July 2007
drive.com.au

Depreciation is the single biggest financial loss incurred by new-car buyers, and the bad news is that it's getting worse.

New-car retained values have plummeted even further in the last 10 years - by up to 33 per cent in some cases - costing Australian buyers up to $10,000.

An exclusive report produced for Drive by used-car experts Glass's Guide reveals the Australian new-car buyer is worse off today than their 1997 counterpart.

A decade ago, a three-year-old Ford Falcon base model was worth approximately 60 per cent of its original retail price. The equivalent Falcon today is valued at about 41 per cent of its 2004 cost.

In real terms, that means a current owner of a three-year-old base Falcon has lost a further $9,680.

The average Commodore buyer now loses an extra $7400 during the first three years of ownership.

But it's not all bad news. Small-car buyers are actually better off than they were 10 years ago. Rising fuel prices and increased small-car demand have pushed up retained values on the Toyota Corolla and others by two percentage points (from 58 to 60 per cent).

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Australia Versus The World

Jez Spinks
10 July 2007
www.drive.com.au

The Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore dominate the list no car maker wants to be in - Australia's top 10 worst-depreciating vehicles.

Figures obtained by Drive.com.au from automotive industry resale specialist Glass's Guide reveal Australian-built cars have the poorest resale values than vehicles made in any other country.

The Holden Commodore Omega - the $34,990, entry-level model of Australia's most popular vehicle - loses $7,700 the minute you drive it off the lot. This figure rises to $23,790 after four years - the period after which people typically sell their new cars.

Three versions of the VE Commodore (Omega, Executive and Acclaim) and four variants of the BFII Falcon (XT, XT V8, Futura and Fairmont) join the Hyundai Sonata and both the hardtop and soft-top versions of the Ssangyong Korando in a list of the vehicles that lose the most value after four years.

According to Glass's resale predictions, these seven locally built large sedans will lose between 68 and 70 per cent of their original retail price by 2011.

Mitsubishi's 380 and Toyota's new Aurion fare little better, with four-year average resale forecasts of 36 and 35 per cent respectively.

Australian cars are affected by being predominantly large sedans - the worst-performing vehicle segment for used-car values as calculated by Glass's.

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Resale By Vehicle Type

Category - Average resale value after 4 years
Small cars 50%
Sports cars 48%
Luxury 4WDs 47%
Large 4WDs 45%
Light cars 45%
Compact 4WDs 44%
Luxury cars 44%
People-movers 43%
Prestige cars 43%
Medium 4WDs 42%
Medium cars 41%
Large cars 34%
Market average 44%


1997 v 2007: Model Examples

1994 New - 1997 Value - 3-year loss - 2004 New - 2007 Value - 3-year loss - 1997 v 2007 Loss/Gain
Ford Falcon $26,332 $15,799 $10,533 $34,255 $14,045 $20,210 -$9677
Holden Commodore $26,380 $15,564 $10,816 $33,160 $14,922 $18,238 -$7422
Toyota Corolla $22,670 $12,922 $9748 $22,340 $13,627 $11,393 +$1645

*All vehicles selected are base models, with equivalent retail prices chosen for consistency

Click here for Drive's Top 10 Best & Worst Vehicles By Category

Click here for Drive's Resale Values By Nationality & Brand

1997 VT Holden Commodore

[Richard1098]

This seems to assume that buyers pay published list prices for cars..and most don't. It would be intersting to see some numbers that take into account fleet discounts (the bulk of Commodore/Falcon sales) and the "true" cost of small import as sold ie with mandatory or unavoidable "options".

[redTT]

The Holden Commodore Omega - the $34,990, entry-level model of Australia's most popular vehicle - loses $7,700 the minute you drive it off the lot. This figure rises to $23,790 after four years - the period after which people typically sell their new cars.

Three versions of the VE Commodore (Omega, Executive and Acclaim) and four variants of the BFII Falcon (XT, XT V8, Futura and Fairmont) join the Hyundai Sonata and both the hardtop and soft-top versions of the Ssangyong Korando in a list of the vehicles that lose the most value after four years.

Imagine that, the VE Commodore hasnt been out for more than 4 years, yet drive in their infinate time defying wisdom has already predicted that the new commodore will depreciate by xx amount.

Drive loves to bag both Holden and Ford, they will go so far as doctor results, rely on idiotic predictions and write three different articles talking about the same d@mn thing. If you know anything about Australian media, you would know that Fairfax = propoganda + pure docutainment.

[mmciau]

Originally Posted by JoeT

What Type Of Cars Hold Their Value The Best, And The Worst?

Jez Spinks
10 July 2007
www.drive.com.au

Buy a new Ford Falcon or Holden Commodore today and you will lose $30,000 in just four years.

"...
Three versions of the VE Commodore (Omega, Executive and Acclaim) and four variants of the BFII Falcon (XT, XT V8, Futura and Fairmont) join the Hyundai Sonata and both the hardtop and soft-top versions of the Ssangyong Korando in a list of the vehicles that lose the most value after four years.

..."

proves beyond any doubt he doesn't know what he is writing!!!!!

He's an apologist for the "must have 4 cylinder sardine tins" with a name that begins with "T".

He hasn't the guts to tell us the repair bill for all the "alloy head" 4 cylinder engines that are gracing the "2 litre sardine tins" that have massive head corrosion problems and associated welding/replacement costs after about 10 years or 160,000Kms.

Mike

[isszy]

He's full of crap anyway. I bought a 2002 Berlina with 140K on the clock when it was 4 years old. The car was about $35K new, I paid $15K at a wholesaler and this was the CHEAPEST Berlina available and had high Km's. Low Km versions were going for around $20K. So a high Km example lost $20K, the normal use would have lost more like $15K in 4 years.

[Butz]

This is really nothing but propaganda. Tell people that Commodores and Falcons have bad resale value, they'll believe it, as a result resale value will suffer and people will switch to Toyota!
Check Jez Spinks' desk, I bet there's a check signed by Toyota somewhere.

[cedarman24]

Just another floging by toyota.com sorry i mean't dribble.com, oh you know what i mean't.

[mikmak]

I actually agree that Commodores depreciate quickly and as Butz pointed out, reputation has a lot to do with it. I can blather on about regular people being sheep and believing what they are told but it is a well replayed song. The fact of the matter is, that many of these are projected values. HSV VXR certainly hasn't been out for 3 years yet rates in the top ten for best retained value. That was the first hole in the data that I saw and only the second thing I read. I wont bother wasting my time reading the rest of it.

Falcon and Commodore depreciation is poor, but probably has a lot to do with the fact that there is hardly a shortage of Australias most popular car.

[hq308]

Three versions of the VE Commodore (Omega, Executive and Acclaim)

That's another flaw in his argument, these models would have traditionally had a higher proportion of fleet sales that would have dragged their values down but with VE that shouldn't be the case as Holden aren't offering the kind of fleet discounts they have in the past.

[Greg Burr]

Originally Posted by hq308

That's another flaw in his argument, these models would have traditionally had a higher proportion of fleet sales that would have dragged their values down but with VE that shouldn't be the case as Holden aren't offering the kind of fleet discounts they have in the past.

Also, past may not be prologue is flweet sales are curtailed. Let's face it, the new Holdens are much more appealing. Also, I don't trust the way that depreciation numbers are computed -- who pays MSRP? And is this a comparioson between a purchase price based on MSRP (retail) and value inclduiing dealer market (vs what we would charge in a private party transcation)?

[asim]

Thats pretty harsh, $30,000 in just 4 years? How much is the car worth in the beginning then?! lol. Well I don't think this mass-depreciation will translate to the United States and our Commodore, the Pontiac G8. At least it better not, or Pontiac is going to be in deep trouble.

[isszy]

Australia deals with price slightly differently to the US. In Australia, RRP (Recommended Retail Price) is the MOST you will pay for a car. Dealers would not get away with charging more unless the car was optioned up (wheels, bodykit etc) or they diddled the trade in value. From what I understand, MSRP is an indicative price that you could pay more or less than depending on demand.

[MonaroSS]

Originally Posted by asim

Thats pretty harsh, $30,000 in just 4 years? How much is the car worth in the beginning then?! lol. Well I don't think this mass-depreciation will translate to the United States and our Commodore, the Pontiac G8. At least it better not, or Pontiac is going to be in deep trouble.

Now you know why we pay so much for cars here in OZ and why Holden has been so profitable for GM. We pay at least 20-25% more than Americans would for the same vehicle (even taking exchange rates into account). That's why they depreciate so much. But do we get value for money? We obviously think so or we wouldn't pay the prices. And we pay over the odds for imports too.

Maybe we're just suckers though?

[Zigmeister]

Originally Posted by Butz

This is really nothing but propaganda. Tell people that Commodores and Falcons have bad resale value, they'll believe it, as a result resale value will suffer and people will switch to Toyota!
Check Jez Spinks' desk, I bet there's a check signed by Toyota somewhere.

... only six posts before the inevitable.

[DRU1978]

He Did Not Mention That The Holden Commodore Ute Has The Best Resale Of Any Car Sold Here In Australia,i Bet He Drives A Camry,just Like All The Grandads.ask Any Young Guy What His Dream Car Is ,an Ss Or Hdt Senator[507 V8 Commodore]