2006 A Big Year For Aussie Large Cars, With VE Commodore On The Way

[JoeT]

2006 Will Be A Watershed Year For The Aussie Large Car

Gautam Sharma
15 May 2006
www.carpoint.com.au

Timing, they say, is everything. If this is indeed the case, the outlook couldn't be bleaker for Holden and Toyota.

You see this year the two automakers launch arguably their most crucial cars yet -- namely, the VE Commodore and Aurion respectively -- into a market segment that's shrinking rapidly.

Unless you've been living under a rock for the past three years, you'll no doubt be aware that soaring fuel prices and the rejuvenated small/medium-car segments (not to mention the burgeoning small/medium SUV classes) have dealt a telling body blow to Australia's formerly omnipotent large-car category.

Consider this: as recently as 2003, locally built large cars notched up 203,524 sales in a calendar year. Contrast this with last year's tally of 153,244 and the numbers clearly illustrate the pain that Holden, Ford and Mitsubishi (the latter's all-new 380 sedan has fared poorly so far) are feeling.

Large-car sales have slumped to the extent that in 2005 they were emphatically gazumped by the flourishing small-car category, which found 215,324 buyers. Many buyers are clearly recognising that opting for a small car no longer entails the compromises that were once the case.

Most small cars these days are refined, comfortable and able to eat up long distances with as much ease as the typical 'Falcodore'. And the fuel economy benefits are patently obvious.

VE VICTORY?

So it's in this climate that Holden must launch its VE Commodore -- a car that lives up to the 'all-new' billing as it is literally a clean-sheet design that doesn't pilfer any bits from GM's European Opel subsidiary (as every past Commodore has done).

VE is underpinned by a new locally developed chassis dubbed 'Zeta', and this architecture will also be subsequently used as the basis for an assortment of GM models in the US, but we won't go into that here.

Holden is throwing everything bar the proverbial kitchen sink at the VE, and the investment it's made in the car (believed to be close to $1 billion) dwarfs the spend on any previous model. The VT, for example, cost about $600 million to develop, while the VN swallowed about $360 million.

Given the rate at which buyers are deserting the large-car segment, the VE can't afford to be merely 'good'. It needs to be a quantum leap forward from the existing VZ. And it obviously can't afford to suffer from the quality-control issues that initially blighted the VT.

Fleet sales are the bread and butter of Commodore volumes, but the advent of 'user chooser' novated leasing means that motorists who were formerly bound by company policy to drive, say, a white Commodore Executive are now free to select the vehicle of their choice, provided it falls within the appropriate price range.

The ramifications are obvious: the VE must appeal not only to fleet managers, but also to the hearts and minds of the end-users, who could just as well opt for a Japanese or low-end European car.

Will it deliver? Well, the General is understandably keen to keep VZ sales afloat in the run-up to the VE's launch (well-placed sources suggest it will take place August/September), so company execs are revealing little (in fact, virtually nothing) about the new car.

However, spy pics and artist's impressions that have been circulating in recent months indicate the VE will be a well-proportioned car with crisp lines inspired by the Torana TT36 concept (pictured) that starred at the 2004 Sydney Motor Show. Overseas pundits have also linked the new Holden's styling to that of the US market brand Saturn's Aura concept (see main picture).

In case you're eyeing a wagon, utility or Crewman, it's worth pointing out here that the existing versions of these will continue even after the new VE sedan is launched. For how long? No official word yet, but expect them to soldier on for at least 12 months.

DENNY'S SAY

Holden boss Denny Mooney has gone on record by saying that improved fuel economy is a key priority for the VE. It's believed this will be addressed by taller gearing, revised engine management electronics and improved aerodynamic efficiency.

Although unconfirmed by Holden, it's likely the 190kW version of the 3.6-litre V6 that powers the existing SV6 and Calais will be slotted in across the range, but possibly with power ramped up closer to the 200kW mark. The clunky old four-speed auto is finally likely to be phased out, with the German-built 5L40 five-speed self-shifter tipped to be standard fare across the V6 range.

Further up the scale, the 260kW/510Nm 6.0-litre V8 that recently debuted in the VZ will also feature in the VE, but possibly with the additional benefits of fuel-saving Displacement on Demand (which deactivates four cylinders on light throttle loads) and variable valve timing. The six-speed manual gearbox will carry over, but it may be supplemented (eventually, if not initially) by a high-tech new six-speed auto in lieu of the ageing four-speed self-shifter.

Further down the track, expect the VE (or VE II) to be the first Commodore to be offered with a turbodiesel engine -- specifically, a 162kW/500Nm 3.0-litre V6 built by Italy's VM Motori. Holden has been evaluating diesel 'mules' for some time, and it's a question of when, rather than if, a diesel Commodore hits the market.

Much has been made by the media of the fact that the VE will use fewer locally made components than any of its predecessors, but Mooney recently said this is inevitable in the current era of globalisation.

"We have, and have to have, a strong local supply base if we're going to survive,” he said. “Frankly, there are some commodities that you can't be competitive (with) in our economy, and it doesn't do any good to keep trying to pour money into those commodities and trying to be competitive."

"There is not this wholesale shift of content going offshore as is being portrayed."

Will the fact that many components are being sourced from Asia impact on quality? Only time will tell, but Mooney has already been boasting of the VE's "world-class" panel gaps.

Safety levels should benefit from the provision of ESP (Electronic Stability Program) across the range and curtain airbags (at least on mid and up-spec models) to boost side-impact protection.

Several influential organisations, including EuroNCAP (European New Car Assessment Program), have extolled the virtues of ESP, which is designed to prevent a loss of control by cutting engine power to the wheels and/or applying the brakes. Statistics suggest this feature alone should do much to bolster the VE's active safety levels -- ie: its ability to avoid an accident in the first place.

How will VE be priced? Obviously, this is a closely guarded secret at this stage, but it's reasonable to expect an incremental increase, as has been the case when new versions of the Commodore have debuted in the past.

However, the cutthroat market conditions into which it is being launched could mean we're talking an upward creep of only a couple of hundred dollars.

Mooney recently told journalists he had spent a day driving pre-production versions of the VE Commodore both inside and outside Holden's Lang Lang proving ground back-to-back with rival offerings and had come away impressed.

"We spent all day long in these cars and they're great, I have to tell you," he gushed.

But, of course, he would say that.

"I've got to tell you I wish we had the car in production right now. It can't get here soon enough, but we're absolutely excited," Mooney added.

TOMORROW'S BIG SIX

However, opposition for the VE will come not only from Ford's BF Falcon and Mitsubishi's 380, but also from Toyota's all-new Aurion, due in showrooms in November.

What is Aurion, and where does it fit in? Essentially, it's a replacement for the unloved (and now defunct) Avalon, which came nowhere near fulfilling Toyota's initial sales expectations.

The Aurion was unveiled at February's Melbourne motor show (see pics), and most who saw the car on Toyota's stand agreed it was a far better proposition -- at least visually -- than the frumpy Avalon.

'Aurion', in case you're wondering, is the ancient Greek word for 'tomorrow'.

Although based on the next-generation global Camry (due here mid-year), its design was largely influenced by Nick Hogios of Toyota Style Australia. The centre section of the car -- doors, roof, windows -- are as per the Camry, but the Aurion differs in its front and rear styling.

Given that it will be positioned above the Camry in Toyota's line-up, the Aurion's interior will also be packaged differently (read: more opulently).

But the big news is the fact that it will be Toyota's sole V6 passenger car, as the new Camry will be offered only with four-cylinder power. The V6 in question is a new 3.5-litre unit with in excess of 190kW and 330Nm.

As has been the case with the Camry and Avalon since day one, power will be transmitted to the front wheels, but this time via a five-speed automatic (rather than the Avalon's four-speeder).

Further down the track (in the first half of 2007), Toyota will introduce an overtly sporting 'S-Con' variant of the Aurion (also pictured), which packs a supercharged variant of the 3.5-litre V6. No power and torque figures have been disclosed, but expect it to kick out around 240kW and 400Nm. Toyota has recently announced a HSV/FPV sty;e performance car operation under the TRD banner to develop and market this car.

CONOMOS ON THE RECORD

Although some industry observers question whether a front-drive car will be able to make an impact in a rear-wheel-drive-dominated segment, Toyota Australia chief John Conomos is confident the Aurion will make its mark.

He said Toyota's local arm had learned valuable lessons from the Avalon experience --specifically about "customer base", "Aussie taste" and "how to market cars differently" -- and wouldn't make the same mistakes again.

However, he denied that Toyota would try to find favour by undercutting Ford and Holden on price. "We don't plan to introduce a cheap motor car," he said. "Our cost planning is right on target and we think we'll be able to hit our original retail price plans without too much difficulty."

Translation: expect a starting price in the low $30,000s.

What will be net effect on the large-car segment following the launch of the VE Commodore and Aurion?

Industry analyst and CEO of fleet risk management company SurePlan Australia, Tony Robinson, says the newcomers will spark renewed buyer interest in the category, and he suggests large cars will continue to account for 22-25 per cent of the passenger car market in the coming years.

However, the halcyon days when large cars earned nearly 40 per cent of the total passenger-car market are gone forever, according to Robinson.

Meanwhile, over in the blue corner, Ford must soldier on until 2008 before it reveals its all-new replacement for the current Falcon, which itself is derived from the 1998 AU. In the interim, expect the existing BF to make way for a nipped-and-tucked version (possibly in the first half of 2007) to prop up its sales volumes.

New Toyota Aurion Sportivo (top) & New Holden VE Commodore (bottom)

[2648562]

The Commodore looks a little BMWish, but it still looks great. Slap an Impala badge on it and I would have a really hard time complaining.

[Aych Es Vee]

Originally Posted by 2648562

The Commodore looks a little BMWish, but it still looks great. Slap an Impala badge on it and I would have a really hard time complaining.

its just a spy photo thats been photoshopped. We still dont know what it fully looks like yet.

[Richard1098]

Originally Posted by JoeT

Consider this: as recently as 2003, locally built large cars notched up 203,524 sales in a calendar year. Contrast this with last year's tally of 153,244 and the numbers clearly illustrate the pain that Holden, Ford and Mitsubishi (the latter's all-new 380 sedan has fared poorly so far) are feeling.

Large-car sales have slumped to the extent that in 2005 they were emphatically gazumped by the flourishing small-car category, which found 215,324 buyers. Many buyers are clearly recognising that opting for a small car no longer entails the compromises that were once the case.

I find this a bit selective in its use of statistics. Territory sales in 2003 were only a few 000, but 25,000 for last year. And if the Misubishi Magna and 380 were/are large sedans, why is the Camry V6 excluded? Add the effect on sales of the impending replacement for both the current Commodore and Falcon, and expanding export markets for both Ford and Holden (and Toyota), and things are not really that bleak.

[Bravada]

So it's in this climate that Holden must launch its VE Commodore -- a car that lives up to the 'all-new' billing as it is literally a clean-sheet design that doesn't pilfer any bits from GM's European Opel subsidiary (as every past Commodore has done).

And what was wrong with that? Besides, Holden can't borrow from Opel anymore, as Opel has scrapped it's large car programme (sadly).

Overseas pundits have also linked the new Holden's styling to that of the US market brand Saturn's Aura concept

Overseas pundits better go see their eye doctor.

[Richard1098]

Originally Posted by Bravada

And what was wrong with that? Besides, Holden can't borrow from Opel anymore, as Opel has scrapped it's large car programme (sadly).

But the current generation Commodores only ever borrowed a couple of styling cues from Opel. Even a cursory look reveals that the Omega and Commodore are very different cars, that differ not only in detail design and components, but also are structurally very different. So I think this is another areas where this particular journalist ignores facts that get in the way of the story.

GM, Ford et al do have their issues, but I almost feel sorry for them at times when the naysayers in the media circle round, salivating at the thought of their possible death........ I think with all the doom and gloom surrounding GM in NA, some of the local journos don't want to miss out on the action....

[darknight9]

That chopped spy shot reveals a darn good looking sedan. The proportions and wheel arches are spot on! **crosses fingers for a US variant**

[jzEllis]

hmmmmm...

[mbukukanyau]

Imagine a Buick like that..

[mikmak]

Originally Posted by Bravada

Overseas pundits better go see their eye doctor.

My thought exactly. Obviously this guy just read the "overseas pundits" opinions but didn't check it out for himself.

The Aura is clearly a stand alone design. There may be a continuation of the Auras design language into a reskin of the VE for the US though. Does Saturn have a large car?

I would be interested to know what sort of percentage large cars are getting in the US too. We tend to follow a few years behind you guys in automotive fads (read:SUV) Anyone have the stats?

[Stormin]

Originally Posted by mikmak

My thought exactly. Obviously this guy just read the "overseas pundits" opinions but didn't check it out for himself.

The Aura is clearly a stand alone design. There may be a continuation of the Auras design language into a reskin of the VE for the US though.

I think the Aura connection goes back to that Motor (I think) photoshop of an Aura with the Torana concept front. The fact that it was clearly FWD didn't seem to worry the magazine.