My review: 2010 Toyota Prius

[goblue]

Originally Posted by john1701a

Since the goal is deep penetration into the market, not just a "best" trophy, those arguments don't contribute anything. Of course, ignoring the questions of purchase or profit indicate a clear disregard for the goal anyway.

As for my understanding, I didn't say that... GM did! I'd suggest you read their own promotional material, but it's quite well known there is no interest in serving middle-market. It's all about superiority.
Whatever.

When consumers make their next purchase, what will they actually buy?
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No - it's about finding a long term solution. HSD isn't it. VOLTEC has a shot. Once that happens then it will be applied across the board at multiple companies and across price points. This is the first run of VOLTEC. GM is going to make as much cash as they can off of it. You have no idea what the actual production cost or sale price will be scaled to hundreds of thousands of VOLTEC cars.

[john1701a]

Originally Posted by goblue

No - it's about finding a long term solution.

Look at all the horrible sales figures posted today. The entire industry is contracting at a frightening rate. Solutions for the long-term (20 years) simply make no sense if mid-term (10 years) and near-term (next year) aren't accounted for too.

Where exactly is the profit going to come from in the meantime?

What will GM compete with?

How is the "superior" technology going to be funded, not to mention paying back the taxpayer loans?
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[goblue]

Originally Posted by john1701a

Look at all the horrible sales figures posted today. The entire industry is contracting at a frightening rate. Solutions for the long-term (20 years) simply make no sense if mid-term (10 years) and near-term (next year) aren't accounted for too.

Where exactly is the profit going to come from in the meantime?

What will GM compete with?

How is the "superior" technology going to be funded, not to mention paying back the taxpayer loans?
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Uh, that's why they are charging a ton for the first generation.

So we shouldn't research or build anything unless it's affordable for the near term?

You really need to think before you post. Just more spin trying to discredit what's a real threat to Toyota's HSD. Time will answer this discussion. Let's check back in a few years from now.

[john1701a]

Originally Posted by goblue

Let's check back in a few years from now.

Since you continue to disregard the mid & near term, that sounds like a very good idea.

What will consumers by until that long-term solution becomes affordable?
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[goblue]

Originally Posted by john1701a

Since you continue to disregard the mid & near term, that sounds like a very good idea.

What will consumers by until that long-term solution becomes affordable?
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John, just stop talking, with virtually every post you just make yourself look worse. Start looking at the problem from a non-Toyota centric point of view. That's what I do, and why I've railed against most of GM's alternative fuel technologies - especially H2. If you stop believing everything Toyota says, and examine HSD for what it is, zero in on its weaknesses, admit there are some then you will start to really see.

[john1701a]

Originally Posted by goblue

...with virtually every post you just make yourself look worse.

Yes, with each post your lack of concern for GM's well being in the near & mid terms becomes more and more easy to see.

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Originally Posted by goblue

That's what I do

Take the blinders off, focus exclusively on long-term engineering only at the expense of business in the meantime simply doesn't make sense. There must be a balance.

As for pretending FULL hybrid designs cannot be further refined, whatever.

As for the topic of this thread, not wanting anything from GM to compete directly with the 2010 Prius is quite...

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[goblue]

Originally Posted by john1701a

Yes, with each post your lack of concern for GM's well being in the near & mid terms becomes more and more easy to see.

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Take the blinders off, focus exclusively on long-term engineering only at the expense of business in the meantime simply doesn't make sense. There must be a balance.

As for pretending FULL hybrid designs cannot be further refined, whatever.

As for the topic of this thread, not wanting anything from GM to compete directly with the 2010 Prius is quite...

.

If FULL (parallel hybrid) means HSD, then yes - I stand by the statement its a mature technology and meaningful refinement is not possible. Simple thermodynamics tells me that. The primary problem is you're still dealing with a starting point that is 30% efficient and we're getting very close to diminishing returns with both HSD and the coming 4 mode. Difference is, 4 mode is capable, HSD is not and can't tow worth anything.

Now, if you're talking about plug in parallel hybrids - a different product, these will be quickly eclipsed by series hybrids except with extreme requirements (towing). Again, an understanding of engineering tells me that. To rival a series hybrid requires the parallel hybrid to be complex and terribly redundant.

As to GM competing with the Prius - I don't expect them to. I expect BAS+ to prove compelling when applied correctly and I expect VOLTEC to move downmarket once its validated in production. Remember, they are using 50% of the pack capacity of a close to $10,000 battery. Pack utilization will go up (Nissan is planning on near 100%) and pack cost will come down. Also, over time I expect variance in range, both up and down. I always expect VOLTEC to cost more than a Prius because its a better product.

The Prius sells for what it does not for some goodwill move by Toyota - but because that's all its worth - which apparently isn't much. Toyota would charge more if they could - but fortunately most people are smart and concluded parallel hybrids just aren't worth it.

What I really think is going on is you can't afford the best hybrid car - and you currently can. And I think that ticks you off that GM is ignoring those with limited means, initially. What are you going to do when I buy a VOLT and put my mileage in my signature - 300 compared to 50. Truth be told, I'll probably wait for the Converj - but what a daily driver that will be.

[john1701a]

Originally Posted by goblue

What are you going to do when I buy a VOLT and put my mileage in my signature - 300 compared to 50.

Point out how misplaced your priorities are.

500,000 produced & sold annually... steady profit.

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[goblue]

Originally Posted by john1701a

Point out how misplaced your priorities are.

500,000 produced & sold annually... steady profit.

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Profit. That's pretty funny. You really do drink the Toyota Kool-Aid. You believe everything our government says too, right? Toyota doesn't make money on the Prius. Creative accounting and a supplement from the Japanese government allows a statement like that. Even then, it took a decade of Prius production to make that statement. At the 10 year mark, VOLTEC might actually make money for GM - even without a slurp of Kool Aid.

Second, I'm not interested in profit from VOLTEC right now. That will come over a long time. What I'm interested in is the first real solution to the gas crisis. A real, tangible way to build no compromise electric cars.

What's funny is how the "environmentalist" is talking about profit and the "engineer" is talking about the solution to our nation's problem and protecting the environment.

Well, enjoy the Prius for another year...after that, it becomes mediocre and on its way to a historical wikipedia article.

[jtrav91]

Originally Posted by goblue

Well, enjoy the Prius for another year...after that, it becomes mediocre and on its way to a historical wikipedia article.

Smug.

[goblue]

Originally Posted by jtrav91

Smug.

that was the intent...

[KingElvis]

Previous Prius was also a 'midsize' in interior volume.

[PhishPhood]

Originally Posted by goblue

Profit. That's pretty funny. You really do drink the Toyota Kool-Aid. You believe everything our government says too, right? Toyota doesn't make money on the Prius. Creative accounting and a supplement from the Japanese government allows a statement like that. Even then, it took a decade of Prius production to make that statement. At the 10 year mark, VOLTEC might actually make money for GM - even without a slurp of Kool Aid.

Second, I'm not interested in profit from VOLTEC right now. That will come over a long time. What I'm interested in is the first real solution to the gas crisis. A real, tangible way to build no compromise electric cars.

What's funny is how the "environmentalist" is talking about profit and the "engineer" is talking about the solution to our nation's problem and protecting the environment.

Well, enjoy the Prius for another year...after that, it becomes mediocre and on its way to a historical wikipedia article.

No it's basic accounting. You're way off base here. The vehicle extinguished its R&D investments sometime in 2004-05 and it's been solidly profitable ever since. The analysis is easy of you know how to do it. The raw data is easily available.

Stick with the engineering theory. Your lack of knowledge about sales, marketing and finance are a common blindspot with engineers. You're in love with a concept. This is business, the only winner is the one making the most money. Everything else is blue ribbons and beauty pagaent crowns. If you seriously believe your last statement then you're just a child with no business acumen at all.

[john1701a]

Expenses don't get paid with a trophy.

Middle-Market vehicles don't stir much excitement.

Large volume sales don't come from a substantial price increase.
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[goblue]

Originally Posted by PhishPhood

No it's basic accounting. You're way off base here. The vehicle extinguished its R&D investments sometime in 2004-05 and it's been solidly profitable ever since. The analysis is easy of you know how to do it. The raw data is easily available.

Stick with the engineering theory. Your lack of knowledge about sales, marketing and finance are a common blindspot with engineers. You're in love with a concept. This is business, the only winner is the one making the most money. Everything else is blue ribbons and beauty pagaent crowns. If you seriously believe your last statement then you're just a child with no business acumen at all.

Phish, Successful engineers become adept in the three areas you mentioned. You are not familiar with Toyota's accounting practices, nor do you have the knowledge to understand the complex interplay between the Japanese government and Toyota. Yes, its an easy calculation - but the integral data required is not available to you. It's not available to me. It is available to the people I know who have done internal consulting for Toyota in Japan.

EREVs change everything. I wholeheartedly stand behind my last statement. I recently explained to a teenager how a VCR works. I used Wikipedia. HSD is on the way. Defending it as cost effective now is like getting excited over a $30 VCR while Blu Ray still is almost $200. Prices will drop, the most simple, elegant solution to a problem invariably wins over time.

The child is the one who doesn't understand the relationships between the politics of a foreign government and their sovereign business. They didn't name a city after a corporation for nothing. The child thinks you can just take what Toyota and the Japanese government give out as data and not question it. The child doesn't understand that data massage is pervasive and business ethics are an oxymoron, let alone the ethics of a foreign government's interaction with their chief business.

By the way...JOHN - did you ziptie your floormats down yet? Should we pull up all those old threads with you defending the Prius unintended acceleration? I guess that qualifies as a simple, elegant solution...